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การวางแผนกำลังคน : แนวคิดและเทคนิค Workforce Planning: Concepts and Techniques
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The Big Picture: ภาพรวมการวางแผนกำลังคน แผนกลยุทธ์การบริหารงานในอนาคต (Strategic Plan) หน่วยงานจะอุดช่องว่างนี้ได้อย่างไร??? สภาพกำลังคนในปัจจุบัน Current Workforce สภาพกำลังคนในปัจจุบัน Current Workforce
Planning Workforce กระบวนการ/ระเบียบวิธีในการวิเคราะห์สภาพกำลังคนในปัจจุบัน การระบุความต้องการกำลังคนในอนาคต หาช่องว่างระหว่างปัจจุบันกับอนาคต กำหนดมาตรการในการดำเนินการและการติดตามประเมินผล A methodical process of analyzing the current workforce, determining future needs, identifying gaps between the present and future, devising and implementing solutions, and evaluating results. การสร้างความสอดคล้องเชิง กลยุทธ์ระหว่างทุนมนุษย์ กับทิศทางการบริหารขององค์กร Workforce planning is the strategic alignment of an organization’s human capital with its business direction. Or Having the right person with the right skills in the right job at the right time
Organization, HR, and Staffing Strategy Organization Mission Goals and Objectives Organization Strategy HR Strategy • Staffing Strategy • Acquire or develop talent • Staffing as a lag or lead system • Specific or general competencies • Exceptional or acceptable workforce quality • External or internal hiring • Active or passive pursuit of diversity • Core or flexible workforce
Forecasting Future Demand (1) • Requires looking at: • Skills required • To achieve Business Targets (Goals, Design, Culture) • Assess skills available Vs Required • Predict how many people required • Skills will depend on: • Timescale • Nature of Org. activities
Forecasting Future Demand (2) Techniques Used to Forecast Demand: • Systematic Techniques • Time series or ratio trend analysis • Work-study approach • Productivity trend analysis • Managerial Judgement • Combined Approach (1+2) • Working back from costs
Demand Forecasting Technique Statistical (quantitative) approaches • Trend analysis • Ratio analysis • Regression analysis Judgmental methods • Group brainstorming • Sales force estimates 1
Forecasting Supply - Internal • Involves identifying/acknowledging the existing staff employed by an organisation • department by department • grade by grade • Involves: • Skills Audits • Predicting Staff Turnover • Internal promotion analysis
Forecasting Supply - External • Filling the GAP using the external labour market: • Local • International • Understanding of the dynamics of the Labour Market to update plans as trends change and develop • General population density • Population movements • Age distribution • Unemployment rates • Education Level • Proportion with higher education • Skill levels/Skills shortages
Steps to Supply Forecasting • Group positions by title, function, and level of responsibility • Estimate within each job group how many of current employees remain, move to another position, or leave the organization
Forecasting Labor Supply Beginning Inventory 125 - Quits 5 - Retirements 2 - Demotions Out 1 Total 117 + Transfers In 3 + Promotions In 2 Forecasted Internal Supply 122
Freeze hiring Restrict overtime Retrain/redeploy Switch to part-time employees Use unpaid vacations Use a shorter workweek Use pay reductions Use sabbaticals Encourage early retirements Dealing with an Oversupply of Manpower
Hire additional workers Improve productivity through training Use overtime Add additional shifts Reassign jobs Use temporary workers Improve retention Dealing with an Undersupply of Personnel
Recruitment Job Choice Vacancy Applicant Company policy Recruiter Recruitment Sources • Internal – external recruiting • Market positioning and company image • Internal – external source • Collage and universities • Employment agencies
Development Methods Assessment Center Job Rotation Career Counseling Special Project Assignment Off-site Training Program Self Study Community of Practice (CoP) Job Enlargement/Enrichment Shadowing Mentoring Apprentice Training CBT On-the-Job Training Coaching Preferences, Corporate Culture, Actual Possibilities • Intervention for Development • Development through Work • Job Rotations • Shadowing/Coaching • CoP Activities • Challenges • Training & Development Source : Hunseok Oh (Department of Education, Seoul National University, Korea)
Option for Reducing an Expected Labor Surplus Option Speed Human Suffering 1.Downsizing Fast High 2.Pay Reduction Fast High 3.Demotions Fast High 4.Transfers Fast Moderate 5.Work sharing Fast Moderate 6.Retirement Slow Low 7.Natural attrition Slow Low 8.Retraining Slow Low Source : Human Resources Management 3rd edition Gaining a competitive advantage
Option for Avoiding an Expected Labor Shortage Option Speed Revocability 1.Overtime Fast High 2.Temporary employees Fast High 3.Outsourcing Fast High 4.Retrained transfers Slow High 5.Turnover reductions Slow Moderate 6.New external hires Slow Low 7.Technological innovation Slow Low Source : Human Resources Management 3rd edition Gaining a competitive advantage
