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Quantifying Risk

Quantifying Risk. Objective:. Define high, medium & low risk activities; Be aware of how the varying levels of risk affect the decisions we make at all of the various stages of our courses. E.g ratios, preparation, equipment, group management and other in-field decisions. Risk vs hazards.

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Quantifying Risk

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  1. Quantifying Risk

  2. Objective: • Define high, medium & low risk activities; • Be aware of how the varying levels of risk affect the decisions we make at all of the various stages of our courses. • E.g ratios, preparation, equipment, group management and other in-field decisions

  3. Risk vs hazards • Level of risk based on potential or existing hazards that are: • Subjective (internal or personal): fatigue, fitness, health, psychological well-being, • Objective (external, environmental): terrain, weather, water conditions Level of risk based on severity of these these hazards and likelihood of them occurring

  4. “Assigning” level of risk determines the long range and proximate decisions we make during our courses:

  5. Does the course fit in our program?  Will we do the course this year?  How will the course be organized this semester? (location, dates, expected # of students, assistants) 

  6. This month, what do we know about the prevailing conditions? (Snow pack, water levels)  This week, has anything changed?  Today, what is the status of the subjective or objective hazards?  In-field, what is happening?

  7. Risk is quantified for insurance companies. What’s in it for us? • Help us make yearly, monthly, weekly, daily decisions

  8. What are the potential hazards / factors that affect level of risk in each of our courses?

  9. Low Risk (Hiking) • High fitness levels • Good group dynamics • Warm weather, no rain in forecast • Flat terrain Medium Risk (Mountain biking) • Single track • Rough trail surface • Roots and boulders on trail High Risk (Canoeing) • > 4 hrs from assistance • Class 2+ water • Winds > 20 knots • Water temp < 15 C

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