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LSE March 2014 Jeremy Skinner

LSE March 2014 Jeremy Skinner. Births +52 Death -16 Net +36. (1.8 % of total pop). (0.7% of total pop). (1.2% of total pop). Births +73 Death -33 Net +40. Data in ‘000 (2006-2010) Assumes current population of 8.4 million

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LSE March 2014 Jeremy Skinner

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  1. LSEMarch 2014Jeremy Skinner

  2. Births +52 Death -16 Net +36 (1.8% of total pop) (0.7% of total pop) (1.2% of total pop) Births +73 Death -33 Net +40 Data in ‘000 (2006-2010) Assumes current population of 8.4 million Net figures for Inner and Outer London are calculated as averages for 2006-2010

  3. Population ‘scorecard’ (annual avg – thousands - 2006-2010)

  4. London’s population is projected to continue growingand will soon exceed its previous peak ‘000 Central projection of 11.3 million inhabitants by 2050 These projections are based on annual employment growth assumptions of 3% (high), 2.5% (central), 2% (low) Overall an increase of 37% from 2011 to 2050 Consistent with London Plan High 13.4 million Within a year we expect to surpass London's 1939 population peak of 8.6 million Central 11.3 million Low 9.5 million Source: GLA Intelligence Unit

  5. We are assessing various scenarios - and their impact on infrastructure needs (and costs) – that would accommodate London’s growth. Accommodating growth outside London London’s projected growth will impact beyond London’s boundary, both in terms of economic growth and where people will live and travel between. Coordinated National, Regional and London planning required to plan for growth. The LEPs will play an instrumental role in supporting that coordination Accommodating growth within London’s borders New runway? New hub airport? Expanding London’s boundaries? New runway?

  6. Continued growth will create strong demand for renewal of and additions to London’s infrastructure. Some headlines… • Public transport: 50-60% increase in trips with a continuing shift away from the car, increasingly dense development. Major transport schemes will include Crossrail 2 and 3, road tunnelling, tube and overground extensions, e.t.c. • 1.5 million new homes needed between 2020 and 2050 (assuming 50,000 per annum) – step change in delivery needed • 6,400 primary classes (assuming 30 children per class); equivalent to 300 additional primary schools • 3,900 secondary classes, or 130 new schools each year. • High risk of demand outstripping supply across various infrastructure types – energy in particular – in the short term

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