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11.2 Theoretical and Experimental Probability

11.2 Theoretical and Experimental Probability. 9.4.3.2 Calculate experimental probabilities by performing simulations or experiments involving a probability model and using relative frequencies of outcomes.

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11.2 Theoretical and Experimental Probability

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  1. 11.2 Theoretical and Experimental Probability 9.4.3.2 Calculate experimental probabilities by performing simulations or experiments involving a probability model and using relative frequencies of outcomes.

  2. Guiding Question: What is the difference between theoretical and experimental probability? • Lesson Objective: I will be able to find the theoretical and experimental probability of an event. • What is the most popular number when rolling 2 dice and adding them? • Which happens more when flipping a coin, heads or tails?

  3. Guiding Question: What is the difference between theoretical and experimental probability? • Terms to know • Probability • Event • Outcome • Sample Space • Complement • Theoretical & Experimental Probability • Geometric Probability • Experiment • Probability • Measure of how likely something will occur. • Always a fraction/decimal between 0 and 1 • Written as P(event)= • Probability of 0 means it will never occur (Vikings winning a super bowl) • Probability of 1 means it will happen (I will sleep tonight).

  4. Guiding Question: What is the difference between theoretical and experimental probability? • Event – Something that happens • Outcome – result of event • Sample space – all possible outcomes • Example • Event: draw a card • Outcome: draw an ace • Sample Space: Ace – King

  5. Guiding Question: What is the difference between theoretical and experimental probability? Theoretical Probability – Complement – all outcomes that are not favorable Ex. P(flipping heads) = ½ P(not flipping heads) = 1 – ½ = ½ • What is the probability of drawing a king? • What is the probability of drawing the king of hearts? • What is the probability of drawing a face card? • What is the probability of not drawing a face card (complement)?

  6. Guiding Question: What is the difference between theoretical and experimental probability? Geometric Probability: probability by using the ratio of area or volume. Ex. If I throw a dart, what is the probability I land in the white area?

  7. Guiding Question: What is the difference between theoretical and experimental probability? Experimental Probability Theoretical Probability • Actually performing trials • Ex. Rolling a die and counting how many times 4 comes up • Perform no trials • Ex. You would expect to roll a die and get 4 of the time.

  8. Assignment: Day 1 Pg. 807 14-20Day 2 Pg. 807 23, 25,26, 27

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