System energy research in RRC “Kurchatov Institute”: Status and prospects

1. System energy research in RRC “Kurchatov Institute”:Status and prospects A.Yu. Gagarinski Russian Research Centre “Kurchatov Institute” Liblice, Czech Republic, 14–17 April 2009

2. 60000 IIASA IPCC, 2007 50000 IPCC, 2000 40000 IIASA Mtoe per year 30000 IAEA, 2008 20000 10000 ETP EIA IPCC, 2000 IEA, 2006 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 year Scenarios of primary energy consumption in the XXI century

3. Energy resource demand Global population growth Minimum energy resource demand, Btoe 35 30 25 Leveling of developed and developing countries 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

4. Rapprochement by specific energy consumption Specific energy consumption leveling between the developed and the developing countries would require a tripled production of primary energy resources Number of people Developing countries 70% of population Developed countries < 30% of population qL, qS – average specific energy consumption of the two global population groups

5. Primary energy supply Growth from 2005 to 2050 (maximum assessment) Oil 0.9 Gas 1.5 Coal 4.0 Hydro 2.0 Biomass & waste 3.0 Other renewables 9.0 Nuclear 3.0 30% deficit of primary energy resources by 2050 (By 2030 – IEA forecasts (WEO-2005), after 2030 – extrapolation)

6. Energy consumption in the XXI century (forecast)

7. Energy resources’ availability depending on their extraction costs Extraction costs, arbitrary units

8. Global oil production evolution scenario Proven oil reserves (EIA, 2006)

9. World oil and gas production 453 billiontons 800 billion tons Million tons Million tons OIL: 152 billion t extracted to date; proven reserves make 164 billion t 310 cubic meters 800 cubic meters Billion m3 Billion m3 GAS: 86 trillion m3 extracted to date; proven reservesmake 180 trillionm3

10. Oil production forecasts for some countries(million tons/year) Saudi Arabia USA UK Russia

11. Uranium resource distribution (%)

12. Scenarios and ranges of installed nuclear capacity projections

13. Regional distribution of nuclear energy and fuel cycle capacities (2008) E (35) F (13) R (7) NE (35.2) E (28) F (28) R (74) NE (134.7) E (4) F (12) R (16) NE (78.4) E (33) F (34) NE (113.2) NE (1.8) E (?) F (2) R (3) NE (4.2) F (1) NE (4.1) E – enrichment F – uranium fuel fabrication R – spent fuel reprocessing NE – nuclear energy capacities In the brackets - % of the world total

14. World nuclear energy and fuel cycle: current status and regional distribution * According to [4.1]. ** Small separation capacities also exist in Pakistan [4.2]. *** With account of Rokkasho plant being commissioned in Japan.

15. MIN scenario Nuclear energy structure Annual demand of natural U production and separation work Installed NPP capacity by regions, GWe

16. Interregional supplies of natural U for enrichment (2050, MIN scenario) Spent fuel storage capacities for EU

17. NORMAL scenario Nuclear energy structure Annual demand of natural U production and separation work Installed NPP capacity by regions, GWe

18. Interregional supplies of natural U and SNF (2050, NORMAL scenario) Natural U for enrichment t/year SNF for reprocessing

19. MAX scenario Nuclear energy structure Annual demand of natural U production and separation work Installed NPP capacity by regions, GWe

20. Interregional supplies of natural U and SNF (2050, MAX scenario) Natural U for enrichment t/year SNF for reprocessing

21. Required innovations depending on the level of the world nuclear energy development (by 2050)

22. Structure of nuclear energy with FNS under MAX scenario