Propensity for Conflict

1. Propensity for Conflict Brittany Gates bg8153a@american.edu American University School of International Service

2. Research Question…Hypothesis • What is the likelihood of a country having conflict? • If a nation has problems with: • Ethno-Political Fractionalization, • Political Rights, • Civil Liberties, • GDP per capita… Is that nation more likely have conflict or is it less likely to have conflict? H₀: No Relationship between these factors and conflict H₁: Relationship between these factors and conflict

3. Literature Review • Why Ethnic Fractionalization? Polarization, ethnic conflict and growth • By: Jose Garcia-Montalvo • Hypothesis: The measure of heterogeneity should be one of the class of polarization measures • Findings: The measure of heterogeneity should be one of the class of discrete polarization measures. • Dynamic Ethnic Fractionalization and Economic Growth. • By: Nauro Campos, Ahmad Saleh, Vitaliy Kuzeyev • Hypothesis: Behavior of ethnic diversity over time and across counties and its effects in terms of economic performance • Findings: Fractionalization’s direct effects on economic performance is weak. Dynamic fractionalization is negatively related to growth.

4. Data Dependent Variable Independent Variables • Number of Conflicts Unit of Analysis: Country • PREG – Ethno-political Fractionalization • GDP per capita • Political Rights • Civil Liberties Data was collected from: Democracy Cross-national Data, Pippa Norris, Spring 2009, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University

6. Bivariate Analysis

7. Regression Analysis

8. Conclusion/Suggestions • Conclusion: Reject the Null, Accept Alternative • There is relationship between the factors and conflict. • Political Rights • Civil Liberties • Ethno-Political Fractionalization • GDP per capita • Suggestions: Country by country basis