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16th ANNUAL ERES CONFERENCE STOCKHOLM - 2009

16th ANNUAL ERES CONFERENCE STOCKHOLM - 2009. PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT FIRM IPOs IN BRAZIL: WAS THERE OVERPRICING OR NOT?. Prof. João da Rocha Lima Jr. Prof. Claudio Tavares de Alencar. Real Estate Research Group. University of São Paulo. june 2009. RERG-USP.

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16th ANNUAL ERES CONFERENCE STOCKHOLM - 2009

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  1. 16th ANNUAL ERES CONFERENCE STOCKHOLM - 2009 PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT FIRM IPOs IN BRAZIL: WAS THERE OVERPRICING OR NOT? Prof. João da Rocha Lima Jr. Prof. Claudio Tavares de Alencar Real Estate ResearchGroup Universityof São Paulo june 2009

  2. RERG-USP THE BRAZILIAN REAL ESTATE INDEX

  3. RERG-USP Investment grade SubPrime THE BRAZILIAN REAL ESTATE INDEX

  4. RERG-USP EVIDENCE of sub-prime impact SubPrime THE BRAZILIAN REAL ESTATE INDEX  all indexes were negatively affected, but the IRE-R50- was the worst one  o IRE-R50+ recovered faster and stronger  the IRE-R50- and IRE-BI recovering is brief and little sustainable. They detached from the Ibovespa, in the beggining of 2008 they’ve already been lower than they were in august 2007 (sub-prime month) WHAT IS INVESTORS RISK AVERSION AND WHAT IS PROBLEM WITH THE COMPANIES STRATEGY AND FUNDAMENTALS?

  5. RERG-USP EVIDENCE of investment grade impact Investment grade THE BRAZILIAN REAL ESTATE INDEX  in may all indexes get higher, while in april they had the worst performance of the year so far  in june and july, when the euphoria had finished, all indexes falling sharply, even bellow than the april level  until july, only the Ibovespa index reaches the same level of the beginning of de 2008, the real estate indexes have losses of 31% for the IRE-R50+, 32% for the IRE-BI and 43% for the IRE-R50- WHAT IS INVESTORS IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE AND WHAT IS MISUNDERSTANDING IN ANALYSING COMPANIES FUNDAMENTALS?

  6. RERG-USP THE IRE, THE BLUE CHIPS AND THE SMALL CAPS  THE REAL ESTATE BLUE CHIPS are 6 residential development companies and 1 real estate investment company which transactions at bovespa are superior than R$ 80 millions a month  THE REAL ESTATE SMALL CAPS are 15 residential development companies and 5 real estate investment companies which transactions at bovespa are lower than R$ 80 millions a month

  7. RERG-USP EVIDENCES of BC e SC performance THE IRE, THE BLUE CHIPS AND THE SMALL CAPS  the blue chips have better performance than the global IRE  separating the stocks by transaction volume at bovespa show that the SC has worse performance than the others (in 08/08, ISC = 45,75 against IRE-R50-=67,84 e IRE-BI=83,45  volatility, losses in the sub-prime and gains in the investment grade, is not significantly different between blue chips and small caps (WHAT REVEALS A CERTAIN IRRATIONALITY)

  8. RERG-USP LEARNING CURVE IN READING THE FUNDAMENTALS? BIASED READING OF THE FUNDAMENTALS? BEST AND BIGGEST BLUE CHIP IN THE MARKET The two blue chips have Better fundamentals and strategies than the small cap have

  9. 16th ANNUAL ERES CONFERENCE STOCKHOLM - 2009 PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT FIRM IPOs IN BRAZIL: WAS THERE OVERPRICING OR NOT? Prof. João da Rocha Lima Jr. Prof. Claudio Tavares de Alencar Real Estate ResearchGroup Universityof São Paulo june 2009

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