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The energy challenge adopting clean tech - how quickly will (can) the world change ?

The energy challenge adopting clean tech - how quickly will (can) the world change ?. Prof Ray Wills Director and Partner Duda&Wills Adjunct Professor The University of Western Australia Chief Adviser Sustainable Energy Association of Australia.

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The energy challenge adopting clean tech - how quickly will (can) the world change ?

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  1. The energy challenge adopting clean tech - how quickly will (can) the world change? Prof Ray Wills Director and Partner Duda&Wills Adjunct Professor The University of Western Australia Chief Adviser Sustainable Energy Association of Australia

  2. Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years Shaun A. Marcott,* Jeremy D. Shakun, Peter U. Clark, Alan C. Mix 2013, Science 339, 1198

  3. Adoption of technology • The natural turnover and retirement of appliances, buildings and vehicles can bring about a modest penetration of sustainable energy in the next ten years. • However, adoption of new technology is often not just ‘natural’ • The transition to sustainable energy, like many new technology shifts, will be more rapid with changes favoured by: • policy measures and regulation; • consumer sentiment; • pricing advantage.

  4. Roger’s diffusion curve

  5. Technology adoption rates – US • Will electric cars be dishwashers or VCRs? (Will there ever be any more dishwashers??) NY Times

  6. Technology adoption rates - vehicles Zoepf 2011

  7. Technology adoption - manufacturers Zoepf 2011

  8. Technology adoption rates - vehicles Zoepf 2011

  9. Technology adoption rates • Marked decrease in developmental lag • Innovation/development of new products • Supply side capabilities • Market competition • Growing consumer expectations • Higher level of communication between consumers - blogspace • Fleet/building/operations managers – and CFOs • Regulation • Energy security

  10. Renewable energy growth Data IEA

  11. Global renewables 2013? Data UNEP

  12. Electricity generation - Europe

  13. Electricity generation - UK

  14. Electricity generation - Australia

  15. Australian electricity demand 2012… Data AEMO

  16. Electricity market projections – WA

  17. Sustainable energy and energy efficiency • Energy efficiency in all forms • Distributed, renewable energy • Known costs, resource life 1000++ years • Stored energy in commodities, desal • Energy storage key to: • improved energy delivery • increased reliability • reduced emissions

  18. Technology energy use www.epri.com

  19. Global electricity growth

  20. Trends in car prices and CO2 2002-2010 How clean are Europe’s cars?

  21. Global renewables

  22. Rapid change- Personal mobility

  23. Private transport • Fuel efficiency, other energy sources • Transport • Energy storage key • New technologies may be disruptive

  24. Electric mass transit • Siemens Bordeaux light rail • Bombardier wireless light rail • Slim Ride -15 passengers • Series 700 Shinkansen train – 285 km/h

  25. Electric mass transit

  26. Commercialvehicles Smith Newton electric truck Mega electric diesel hybrids • London Bus • Haul Pak + Earthmover • Honda prime mover • BYD Electric forklift • Oshkosh Military Vehicle

  27. Flying and floating fuels • February 25, 2008 – Virgin Atlantic Stages the First Biofuel Flight • October 30, 2007 - U.S.A.F. Tests New Synthetic Fuel on Plane • February 14, 2011 – Qantas follows US Military to algae biofuels • September 13, 2011 – US Navy announces by 2016 Green Strike Group, powered by renewable diesel-electric engines, nuclear power and aviation biofuels, is able to operate independent of fossil fuel supply line threat or disruption

  28. Smart grids, smart houses (and farms) • Integrated energy planning • Smart grids to coordinate the actions of devices such as loads & generators

  29. Green cities • Global • Tianjin Eco-City China • Ulsan EcocityKorea • Masdar City UAE • Australia • City of Sydney – 70% CO2 reduction by 2030 • City of Melbourne • Stirling City Centre, Perth • City of Fremantle • Yanchep – 2 x 100 000 • Local government critical

  30. Solar on Australian homes • 955,614 solar installs in Australia, total 2.31 GW of capacity; output estimated 2500 GWh of electricity in the 12 months to November 2012. • WA - 127 000 rooftops with solar, a total of 275 MW of solar capacity • Mandurah (postcode 6210) – over 6300 homes, 11.7 MW of capacity • Canning Vale area (postcode 6155) and the Wanneroo area (postcode 6055) next two largest - similar numbers ~ 4000 homes and ~ 8 MW.

  31. Solar on Australian homes • WA - 104 000 rooftops with solar, a total of 218 MW of solar capacity • Mandurah (postcode 6210) - over 5200 homes and 9.4 MW of capacity • Canning Vale area (postcode 6155) and the Wanneroo area (postcode 6055) next two largest - similar numbers 3200 homes and 6.4 MW.

  32. Solar on WA homes City of Cockburn

  33. Solar on your home

  34. Solar in South Australia

  35. When the winds of change blow,some people build walls and others build windmills. Chinese proverb

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