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International Market

International Market. Top 50 Energy Companies by Market Capitalisation, end 2000, %. ExxonMobil 16.6. Royal Dutch/Shell 11.7. TotalFinaElf 6.0. Total $1.8tm. BP 10.0. Other Oil 19.3. Power & gas firms 36.4. Source: Petroleum Finance Company. International “Oil & Gas Deals”.

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International Market

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  1. International Market

  2. Top 50 Energy Companies by Market Capitalisation, end 2000, % ExxonMobil 16.6 Royal Dutch/Shell 11.7 TotalFinaElf 6.0 Total $1.8tm BP 10.0 Other Oil 19.3 Power & gas firms 36.4 Source: Petroleum Finance Company

  3. International “Oil & Gas Deals” • Concession from country (10-20 years) • Structure: 40% company and 60% country • Multi-national financing, project financing, debt financing (debt for equity swap) • World Bank, EBRD

  4. O& G Journal - 9/25/2000

  5. International PerspectiveDeveloped and Developing Countries Fossil Fuels Climate Change Market Economies Political Alliances $2 trillion/yr Global Energy Market

  6. Energy Consumption per Head*, 1995 * Includes non-commercial energy 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 gigajoules North America Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe Pacific Asia Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa South Africa Source: World Energy Assessment

  7. Global Primary Energy Consumption 14,000 12,000 Transition economies 10,000 8,000 Development countries Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent 6,000 4,000 OECD 2,000 0 90 80 85 95 2000 05 10 15 20 Forecast Source: International Energy Agency

  8. Energy issues • Europe (Green movement/ nuclear) • Russia/FSU (E. Europe, the “Stans” ) market share (v. OPEC) • Latin American (opportunity) • SE Asian (production, demand, control) • Africa (war, politics, corruption)

  9. Kyoto Accord Discord

  10. O& G Journal - 7/10/2000

  11. O& G Journal - 7/10/2000

  12. O& G Journal - 7/10/2000

  13. O& G Journal - 7/10/2000

  14. O& G Journal - 7/10/2000

  15. Oil Price, Supply and Demand, Inequities • Physical constraints (pipelines, refineries) • Economic conditions (poor economy-price increase hurts; strong economy-price increase not as significant) • Taxes (discourage consumption; favor one fuel over another; fund gov’t services; environment) • Developing countries may subsidize consumption to stimulate economy • Leaders subsidize cost to stay in power (unsustainable)

  16. World Natural Gas Reserves • Gas is of increasing significance worldwide • Est. 900 of the 2,000 tcf of world undiscovered gas reserves “stranded” • New technologies/solutions: LNG, GTL • “Clean fuels” strategies become more important world wide

  17. LNG • The large LNG plants are in Indonesia, Algeria, Nigeria and Trinidad. One of largest underway at Sakhalin (9.6mmt/yr) • LNG is one way to move “stranded gas” to market. Some countries, eg. Japan, rely heavily on LNG imports. • LNG in the US: is it economic? Environmental pros/cons; energy security/balance of payments issues

  18. Russia • Heavily dependent on oil revenue • Russia needs $18.50/bbl to meet its budget obligations • Daily output of 7mmbo • Increased drilling by 50% • Govt building 2 new pipelines to Baltic and Black seas. EU market share • Privatized energy companies • World leader in proven gas reserves • Siberia far from market

  19. Caspian Production Potential • Caspian reserve est: 40 billion barrels oil* strategic location • World reserve est: 1 trillion barrels oil * ~4% of world reserves

  20. O& G Journal - 8/21/2000

  21. Tengiz Field, Caspian Region • Permian carbonate reefs • 1000’ pay • H2S • Overpressured • Jurassic salt (great seal)

  22. Venezuela • Exports 50% of oil production to US • Have South America’s largest proven gas reserves (147 tcf). Ranks 8th in world gas. • Hope to generate $1billion new investment in (non-oil assoc) gas exploration (2001-2005) w/ international investment • Foster domestic use of natural gas • Market LNG a goal • Economy dependent on energy revenues • Political instability?

  23. O& G Journal - 9/25/2000

  24. Global Energy Systems Transition 1997 100 hydrogen wood & hay 80 solids coal & nuclear gases Non-sustainable economic growth Centralised, capital-intensive technologies Increasingly sustainable economic growth Decentralised, less capital-intensive technologies 60 Percent of Market 40 natural gas oil & hydroelectric oil & natural gas liquids petroleum oil 20 “city gas” hydrogen whale oil liquids natural gas 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 Source: GHK Company

  25. 5,808 Mtoe 9,117 Mtoe* World Consumption of End-Use Fuels, % 1997 11 Coal 8 2020 Forecast 1 Renewables 2 4 Heat 3 Electricity 20 17 Gas 18 18 49 Oil 49 * Million tonnes of oil equivalent Source: International Energy Agency

  26. End

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