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Flood risk assessments in the Norwegian flood research program HYDRA

Flood risk assessments in the Norwegian flood research program HYDRA. Nils Roar Sælthun, NIVA Hallvard Berg, NVE Hans Olav Eggestad, Jordforsk Lars Gottschalk, University of Oslo Irina Krasovskaia Morten Skoglund, The SINTEF Group Astrid Voksø, NVE Magne Wathne, The SINTEF Group.

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Flood risk assessments in the Norwegian flood research program HYDRA

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  1. Nils Roar Sælthun Flood risk assessments in the Norwegian flood research program HYDRA Nils Roar Sælthun, NIVA Hallvard Berg, NVE Hans Olav Eggestad, Jordforsk Lars Gottschalk, University of Oslo Irina Krasovskaia Morten Skoglund, The SINTEF Group Astrid Voksø, NVE Magne Wathne, The SINTEF Group

  2. Nils Roar Sælthun The HYDRA Programme • HYDRA is a research programme on flood initiated by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Administration (NVE) at the beginning of 1995. The major flood in south-eastern Norway in the spring of 1995 made the programme particularly relevant.

  3. Nils Roar Sælthun Working Hypothesis • The working hypothesis is that the sum of all human impacts in the form of land use, regulation, flood-protection etc., may have increased the risk of floods.

  4. Nils Roar Sælthun Mission • HYDRA is aimed at developing knowledge, information and methodology to support state and municipal authorities, insurance companies and other organisations in their work and decision making.

  5. Nils Roar Sælthun Time frame, funding and participants • Time frame of 3 years, terminating in 1999 • Economic framework of NOK 18 million • Funding: The Ministry of Petroleum and Energy. • Executing parties: • Norwegian research institutions and universities • Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, • one river authority. • Board of users

  6. Nils Roar Sælthun Projects: • Impacts of watershed land use. • Flood impacts in urban areas. • Flood reduction, flood protection and flood management. • Risk analysis. • Environmental consequences of floods and flood prevention measures. • Integrated watershed/watercourse/floodplain modelling • Databases and Geographical Information Systems (support activity at NVE).

  7. Nils Roar Sælthun Risk analysis project • The main objective: to improve the methodology for loss assessments - aimed at streamlining cost/benefit analysis of flood mitigation measures. • Central components • R1: Damage/loss functions • R2: Improving flood mapping • R3: Flood analysis and risk analysis • R4: Improved front line decision tools

  8. Nils Roar Sælthun R1: Damage/loss functions • Objective: Establish standardised loss functions for various objects with special emphasis on buildings and cultivated land, based on assessments and inventories after the 1995 flood

  9. Nils Roar Sælthun R1: Objects investigated • Buildings • Infrastructure • roads (direct and indirect costs) • railroads (direct and indirect costs) • flood levees and erosion protection • Agricultural areas • physical damage • crop losses

  10. Nils Roar Sælthun Damage to buildings

  11. Nils Roar Sælthun R2: Improving flood inundationmapping • Objectives: • Improving flood zoning methodology, • testing of various base map types and laser scanning; • identification of exposed objects and areas by use of GIS and digital property registers;

  12. Nils Roar Sælthun R3: Flood analysis and risk analysis • Improved regional flood frequency analysis • Flood line estimation • Test and verification of loss curves • Establish frequency/damage curves

  13. Nils Roar Sælthun Regional flood frequency analysis

  14. Nils Roar Sælthun R4: Improved front line decision support • Public perception of risks • Public reactions to abandoning and evacuation orders • Local decisions under lack of external information • Decision trees • Methods: • polls • expert panels • fuzzy set analysis

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