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Abrupt Climate Change: Responses and Impacts

Abrupt Climate Change: Responses and Impacts. Dr. Thomas R. Armstrong Senior Advisor, Global Change USGS. Modeling the Future. Source: IPCC, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Climate Change: Natural vs. Anthropogenic. Source: IPCC, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis.

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Abrupt Climate Change: Responses and Impacts

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  1. Abrupt Climate Change: Responses and Impacts Dr. Thomas R. Armstrong Senior Advisor, Global Change USGS

  2. Modeling the Future Source: IPCC, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

  3. Climate Change: Natural vs. Anthropogenic Source: IPCC, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

  4. -25 -30 -35 -40 -45 -50 -55 20 15 10 5 0 Abrupt Climate Change: The Past 20,000 Years Vikings to Greenland Vikings Leave warmer • Small changes in temperature can lead to significant local human impacts • Big temperature changes have occurred rapidly that could have significant global impacts YD 10°C (18°F) increase in several decades at end of Younger Dryas interval (YD) Temperature in Central Greenland (C) colder Alley, 2000 Thousands of years before present

  5. Abrupt Climate Change: The Past 400,000 Years Current CO2 Upper, blue line = CO2 level Lower, red line = temperature

  6. Some Responses to Abrupt Climate Change Drought Habitat Change Strong Storms Sea Level Rise Floods

  7. Climate Change, Sea Ice Loss, and Polar Bear Habitat Significant loss of polar bear habitat (red) State of Knowledge Sea Ice: General Circulation Model Projections and Observed Record

  8. Response to Climate Change Projected Permafrost Degradation by 2100

  9. As the Earth Warms, Sea-Level Rises Two factors: increased meltwater and thermal expansion Since the last glacial maximum ( 20,000 b.p.): • sea level has risen 120 m (400 ft) • past 100 years - 1.0 - 2.0mm/yr Low lying coastal areas are proneto more frequent inundation As sea level rises, flooding, erosion,and salt water intrusion will accelerate

  10. Future Science Challenges • Forecasting changes in state • Forecasting accelerated rates • Linkages between state change and system response • System thresholds and their triggers • Adaptation and mitigation strategies

  11. The Vision – A National Climate Effects Network • An integrated National climate effect monitoring network capable at a range of scales. • Focus on early detection and forecasting in support of adaptation or mitigation strategies. • An information dissemination and decision support system. • The capacity for the next generation to protect and sustain our National trust resources through early detection of change.

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