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Enhancing Transportation Planning for Gainesville by 2040: A Comprehensive Scenario Analysis

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This report presents the findings of Marlie Sanderson, Director of Transportation Planning at the University of Florida, highlighting key lessons learned from the Scenario Planning process. With a focus on the years 2025, 2035, and 2040, the report critiques over-reliance on computer data and emphasizes the need for local government responsibility in land use planning. It analyzes the impacts of land use decisions on daily transit ridership, congested lane miles, and vehicle emissions. The ultimate goal is to create a more robust transportation plan that can effectively address future challenges.

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Enhancing Transportation Planning for Gainesville by 2040: A Comprehensive Scenario Analysis

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  1. Scenario Planning Marlie Sanderson Director of Transportation Planning

  2. Location Map University of Florida Gainesville

  3. Gainesville MPO- Voting Members City of Gainesville Commission Alachua County Commission

  4. Before Scenario Planning Year 2025 Failing Roads Get the “red” out of the plans

  5. Before Scenario Planning Too much reliance on computer data

  6. Scenario Planning Year 2025 Plan Year 2035 Plan Year 2040 Plan

  7. Scenario Planning Year 2025 Plan Year 2035 Plan Year 2040 Plan

  8. Year 2025 Plan Transportation / Land Use Interaction 4 Land Use Scenarios

  9. North Central Florida Regional Planning Council

  10. Land Use Evaluation • Amount of new land consumed

  11. Land Use Evaluation • Daily Transit Ridership

  12. Land Use Evaluation • Congested Lane Miles

  13. Land Use Evaluation • Change in Vehicle Emissions

  14. Scenario Planning Year 2025 Plan Year 2035 Plan Year 2040 Plan

  15. Year 2035 Plan One Land Use/ Peak Oil Scenario

  16. Increase Cost of Gasoline

  17. Peak Oil Scenario- Adjustment Factors Increase gasoline cost from $2.50 to $10.00 per gallon

  18. Peak Oil Scenario- Adjustment Factors Adjust automobile ownership

  19. Peak Oil Scenario- Adjustment Factors Adjust automobile ownership in traffic analysis zones (TAZ)

  20. Overall Accessibility- Year 2035

  21. Scenario Planning Year 2025 Plan Year 2035 Plan Year 2040 Plan

  22. Year 2040 Plan Highway Emphasis- Scenario 1 Transit Emphasis- Scenario 2

  23. Year 2040 Scenario #3 - Combination of best transit and highway projects

  24. Lessons Learned • Not enough growth in 20 years to make a difference.

  25. Lessons Learned • Land use planning is the responsibility of local governments, not transportation planners.

  26. Lessons Learned • Great tool to consider how transportation investments affect land use decisions.

  27. Lessons Learned • Final plan is more comprehensive and is not just a list of projects.

  28. Lessons Learned • Considerable interest and curiosity by elected officials and other citizens.

  29. Contact Information: Marlie Sanderson Gainesville, Florida MPO (352) 955-2200 sanderson@ncfrpc.org

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