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Climate Change - Meteorologists in Action

Climate Change - Meteorologists in Action. C Y Lam Hong Kong Observatory. Paris, 2 February 2007. IPCC – The evidence for human-caused global warming is now “ unequivocal ” . Now accepted by most, taken for granted But, it has taken three decades to reach this position.

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Climate Change - Meteorologists in Action

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  1. Climate Change- Meteorologists in Action C Y Lam Hong Kong Observatory

  2. Paris, 2 February 2007 • IPCC – The evidence for human-caused global warming is now “unequivocal”. • Now accepted by most, taken for granted • But, it has taken three decades to reach this position.

  3. The 30-year Journey 380 ppm 330 ppm (background figure after IPCC, 2007)

  4. WMO & Meteorologists • Rational approach: data & research • Engagement: partners & stakeholders, impacts & responses • Community level: attitude change, teach & preach

  5. 1st WMO statement, 1976 • Carbon dioxide – 330 ppm • Accumulation of carbon dioxide – potential impact on climate vs natural variability • Food as key issue, other disruptions too

  6. 1st World Climate Conference, 1979(WMO, UNEP, FAO UNESCO, WHO) • “a gradual warming of the lower atmosphere appears plausible” • “some effects …. detectable before the end of this century” • Declaration: urgent actions to improve knowledge and to foresee & prevent potential man-made changes

  7. WMO World Climate Programme, 1979 • Data • Applications • Research • Impacts on human activities Multiple international partners

  8. Data • WMO Global Observing System – based on national meteorological services • WMO Global Atmospheric Watch – specialized network to measure atmospheric composition • Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), 1992 – WMO, IOC-UNESCO,UNEP, ICSU • 380 ppm, 0.74°C/100 years (IPCC, 2007)

  9. Research • World Climate Research Programme, 1985 • WMO, ICSU, IOC-UNESCO • Large scale projects, all climate components • Underpins UNFCCC & IPCC assessments

  10. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change WMO & UNEP,1988 • Assessment reports based on published literature, covering: • state of climate • potential impact • policy options in response • 1st report, 1990; 4th report 2007

  11. 2nd World Climate Conference, 1990(WMO, UNEP, UNESCO, IOC, FAO, ICSU) • Carbon dioxide 350 ppm • After 1st IPCC Assessment Report • Ministerial Declaration: • noted unprecedented rate of climate change predicted by IPCC • association with greenhouse gases • call for negotiations →UNFCCC 1992 • well-informed public

  12. The Long Journey +20ppm (background figure after IPCC, 2007)

  13. 30 years after 1st WMO Statement • IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007 • “warming of the climate system is unequivocal” • “very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations”

  14. The Long Journey “unequivocal” after +50 ppm ↑ 30-year wait ↓ (background figure after IPCC, 2007)

  15. Current general acceptance of human-induced climate change • It came about not by accident • But by meteorologists • sounding the alarm 30 years ago • organizing observations & research • engaging partners & stakeholders

  16. Reaching Out- Teach and Preach • A well-informed public – the responsibility of meteorological services working at the “local” level • Must be based on • Observations • Understanding of the phenomenon • Projections into the future

  17. Hong Kong Observatory • Records since 1884 • Announced observed trends • Also urbanization effects • Projections for 21st century

  18. Relating to people People don’t appreciate : “3.5°C rise in temperature in 21st century” “Temperature varies more than this in a day. What is the problem?”

  19. “No winter by the end of the century” “Less than one cold day per winter.”

  20. “cold winter no more” Hong Kong, August 2004

  21. Reaching out to people press conference radio & TV open day

  22. The public & green groups public lectures partnering with green groups lectures for students

  23. Road blocks • Low public interest relative to economic and social issues • Lack of sense of being “immediate” and “close” • “Small city” psychology, but actually 0.1% of world population

  24. More teaching and preaching • Information on trend, potential impacts, basic causes and what people can do • A matter of attitude and life style • Education package & school activities • More partners

  25. Meteorologists – not purely scientists • We sounded the alarm; now we should enable people to respond. • Reach out, with clear message for people. • Climate change is multi-disciplinary by nature; engage full spectrum of partners.

  26. Another 30 years for action? “unequivocal” after +50 ppm ↑ 30-year wait ↓ (background figure after IPCC, 2007)

  27. WMO & meteorologistswill act together with all to stop the worlddrifting irreversibly into a stateunsuitable for human habitation.We cannot wait for another 30 years.

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