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TITLE: Louisville 2006 PM2.5 Season Forecasting Case Study – The Forecast Predictor Variables Analysis of the Relationship between the Highest PM2.5 Episode (July 18-20) and A Mid-Atlantic Coastal Tropical Storm (Beryl) AUTHORS: Arthur F. Chang and Cynthia H. Lee

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  1. TITLE: Louisville 2006 PM2.5 Season Forecasting Case Study – The Forecast Predictor Variables Analysis of the Relationship between the Highest PM2.5 Episode (July 18-20) and A Mid-Atlantic Coastal Tropical Storm (Beryl) AUTHORS: Arthur F. Chang and Cynthia H. Lee Louisville Metro Air Pollution Control District (APCD), Louisville, Kentucky, 40204 Steve Sherman Indiana Department for Environmental Management (IDEM), Indianapolis, Indiana, 46204 ASSIGNED NUMBER: 16

  2. ABSTRACT: In this case study, we continue to analyze our PM2.5 two new forecast predictor variables for our highest PM2.5 concentrations in 2006 (July 18-20). These highest PM2.5 pollution predictor variables are surface synoptic systems interaction between 1) a pending frontal passage and 2) a Mid-Atlantic coastal tropical storm system. They seem to follow 2005’s predictor variables for the highest PM2.5 episode in 2005. Base on the coordinates from the ten (10) highest PM2.5 data points of two storm systems (Beryl and Ophelia), the latitude (N) ranges from 28 to 40 and longitude (W) spans from 70 to 80. By adding these predictor variables to consider the forecast of very high concentration episodes, it provided our agency better accuracy to timely call Air Quality Alert (AQA) to reach the public and sensitive groups to avoid the exposure when the forecasted Air Quality Index reaching Unhealthy to Sensitive Groups (USG when PM2.5 > 40 ug/m3). We studied and compared the information among synoptic surface conditions and maps of East U.S.; surface meteorological hourly observations by Louisville’s NWS (National Weather Services) station; HYSPLIT model forecast backward trajectory by NOAA; GOES Aerosol/Smoke products; and the coordinates of Mid-Atlantic coastal tropical storm systems (Beryl-2006 and Ophelia-2005) from Tropical Cyclone reports summarized by NHC (Nation Hurricane Center). We identified that the relative location of a Mid-Atlantic Carolina Coastal Tropical System to a pending frontal passage is contributing to the severe PM2.5 stagnation (single city, an area, or/and regional). Plus upwind transport by recirculation can be demonstrated by HYSPLIT backward trajectory plots and contributed to these PM2.5 pollution built-ups.

  3. ABSTRACT (cont’d):Our highest 2006 PM2.5 episode had three days PM2.5 FRM maximum concentrations (ug/m3) of 39.6, 39.3 and 48.2 associating with TS Beryl latitude/longitude coordinates of (-32.3,73.3), (-34.5, 73.7) and (-37.4, 73.2), respectively. The 48.2 ug/m3 was the 1st maximum in 2006 Louisville PM2.5 FRM data set to date.From an earlier analysis of the 2005 hurricane season (the most active in record) with PM2.5 concentrations, several tropical storms systems (Franklin, Harvey, Irene and Ophelia) were identified to associate with high Louisville PM2.5 concentrations. Ophelia had the most pronounce impact on PM2.5 by triggering the highest PM 2.5 episode that included the 2005 1st maximum concentrations of 48.8 ug/m3 on September 9, 2005. The six days from September 8th to13th had concentration (ug/m3) of 43.5, 48.8, 45.9, 47.8, 40.1 and 42.9, respectively.The similarities between these two tropical systems are 1. A pending surface cold front passage that the movement of the cold front was stalled by a Mid-Atlantic coastal tropical system (Ophelia-05 & Beryl-06) . 2. Very high PM2.5 concentrations (including the 1st PM2.5 annual maximum) associate with both TS Beryl and H. Ophelia tropical systems with similar coordinates that were off Mid-Atlantic Carolina coast lines. 3. HYSPLIT backward trajectory from the east and southeast showed vertical mixing and subsidence.The similarities derived from this case study had been used for reviewing the1st- 4th maxima of Louisville PM2.5 FRM data sets for 2001-2004 (See Table 1 &2 for more correlations) and will be used for future PM2.5 forecast model development.

  4. METHODOLOGY 1. Louisville Metro FRM PM2.5 Monthly Average Trends (1999-2006)– Figures 1 and 2 Louisville Metro Federal Reference Method (FRM) PM2.5 network has four PM2.5 sites along with one collocated site. FRM PM2.5 network consists of five R&P 2025 FRM samplers. Each monthly average was derived from all runs of five samplers from that month in Louisville Metro. In Figure 1, it displays seven (7) years of monthly averages from 1999 to 2006. In Figure 2, the month-to-month average comparisons were performed between 2005 and previous six year averages of respective monthly averages (1999-2004). • Daily FRM and TEOM PM2.5 Time Series Plots (Summer 2005) – Figures 3 & 4 FRM PM2.5 daily maximum concentrations were derived from five FRM samplers. In this study, the Maximum Values Reports (AMP440) from EPA-AQS database were used for Louisville Metro PM2.5 maximum values. TEOM (Tapered Element Oscillating Microbalance) PM2.5 daily maximum concentrations were derived from four samplers. Both daily FRM and TEOM maximum concentrations were plotted for the summer of 2005. The tropical storms and hurricanes information were downloaded from National Hurricane Center (NHC). The locations (A-Atlantic Ocean, G- Gulf of Mexico, and E- end of storm or hurricane) and the remnant of each storm or hurricane after landing (L-Landing) were extracted from the NOAA’s storm tracking tables. The Figure 3 displays storm names and types along with time series plots of both FRM and TEOM for the summer of 2005. • Surface Weather MapsandPM2.5 AIRNow Maps – Figures 6, 8, 10,11 and 7 With permission from NOAA& Unisys Corp., the surface weather maps were downloaded for studying the scope of interaction between each cyclone and stalled frontal movement. • Backward Trajectories Maps - Figures 12 & 13 The NOAA HYSPLIT model was used for these high PM2.5 episode days. Three level of trajectories were generated by NAM forecast initiations – e.g. 500, 1000 and 1500. Either 24 hours or 36 hours backward time duration were used for generating backward trajectories. 5. Tropical Storms/Hurricane Track Information– Figures 5, 7, and 9 This study uses tropical storm and hurricane tracking data (see Figure 5 & 7) from Unisys Corp. (with permission) or National Hurricane Center (NHC). The force winds profile product (Figure 9) of NHC delineates the wind impact by storms or hurricanes. Figure 9 shows the outer limit of force winds by TS Beryl on 20th of July 2006. This experimental product from NHC can potentially be used to identify a stagnated area that is outside the outer boundary of force winds of each storm.

  5. Figure 1. Louisville Metro Monthly PM 2.5 Averages Historical Trend – 1999-2006

  6. Figure 2. Unique FRM PM2.5 Monthly Averages Peak for 2005 - September 2005 TROPICAL STORMS SEASON ALTERED NORMAL LOUISVILLE METRO FRM PM2.5 MONTHLY AVERAGES TRENDS (1999 – 2005) 30.0 DECREASED PM 2.5 : INCREASED PM 2.5 : Hurricane DENNIS 7/5-10/05 Hurricane OPHELIA 9/6-18/05 Remnant over KY-IL border with rain for 25.0 3 stalled on 11th ( 48.9 ug/m ) over Cape more than a week. Hatteras N. Carolina & caused long --See surface map and PM2.5 daily stagnation for Louisville. tracking chart for details (see Fig. 3 &4) --See surface map and PM2.5 daily tracking chart for details (see Fig. 3 &4). 20.0 6 yr Avg CONC. (ug/m3) 15.0 05 M Avg 10.0 5.0 0.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 14.8 14.3 13.1 12.9 16.0 19.9 24.1 22.2 17.0 15.3 15.8 15.9 6 yr Avg 12 17.1 14.3 12.9 14.9 20.5 19.7 21.1 23.4 16.4 12.7 14.8 05 M Avg MONTH

  7. Figure 3. 2005 SummerTime Series Plots of Louisville Metro Daily PM 2.5 FRM and TEOM 55 51 47 43 39 35 31 27 23 19 15 11 7 3 5- 7- 9- 11- 13- 15- 17- 19- 21- 23- 25- 27- 29- 1-Jul 3-Jul 5-Jul 7-Jul 9-Jul 11- 13- 15- 17- 19- 21- 23- 25- 27- 29- Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Fall (9/22/2005) Summer (6/22/2005) H1 OPHELIA:9/6A-9/14Carolina-17E/05 Louisville Metro 2005 Tropic Systems Impacted on PM2.5 FRM and TEOM Data TS IRENE H Nate Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) 8/9- 8/15/05 9/05 -9/10 NO 6/21/05- influence by TS TS Franklin TS Harvey H3 Dennis Moderate H5 KATRINA 7/21 -7//29 8/02 -8/08 7/05 -7//10 8/20A-8/25G-28L-31E/05 H Arlene Remnant (light 6/10 -6/12/05 color arrow) over KY-lL 7/10 - PM2.5 Concentration, ug/m3 7//17 raining daily Good USG FRM_Max Good Obs. Midnight-t-M TEOM 31- 2- 4- 6- 8- 10- 12- 14- 16- 18- 20- 22- 24- 26- 28- 30- 1- 3- 5- 7- 9- 11- 13- 15- 17- 19- 21- 23- Jul Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Day of Month

  8. Figure 4. 2006 SummerTime Series Plots of Louisville Metro Daily PM 2.5 FRM and TEOM

  9. Figure 5. 2006 TS BERYL Best Track (18-21, July)– Blocking and Rolling Blocking

  10. Figure 6. Louisville 1st Max of 2006 (7/20) - 48.2 ug/m3 & TS Beryl (-39,72.6)

  11. Figure 7. 2006 TS BERYL Best Track- Blocking near Carolina Coast

  12. Figure 8. Louisville 1st Max of 2006 (7/20)- 48.2 ug/m3 & TS Beryl (-37.4,73.2)

  13. Figure 9. Louisville 1st Max of 2006 (7/20)- 48.2 ug/m3 & TS Beryl (-37.4,73.2)

  14. Figure 10. Louisville 2nd Max of 2006 (7/18) – 39.6 ug/m3 & TS Beryl (-32.8,73.4)

  15. Figure 11. Louisville 2nd Max of 2006 (7/18) - 39.6 ug/m3 & TS Beryl (-32.8,73.3)

  16. Figure 12. Louisville 2nd Max of 2006 (7/18) - 39.6 ug/m3 & Backward Trajectory

  17. Figure 13. Louisville4th Max of 2006 (8/25) - 38 ug/m3 & Subsidence and E/SE Vertical Mixing

  18. Table 1. 2001-2006 Correlations Between Tropical Systems and Louisville PM2.5 FRM Annual 1st to 4th Maximum Readings

  19. Table 2.Tropical Cyclone Location (Lat/Long) Statistics of 2001- 2006 Relating to LouisvillePM2.5 1st to 4th Annual Maximum

  20. GOES Aerosol/Smoke Product (GASP)The GASP product is a retrieval of the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) made from the current GOES East visible imagery • July 17 – Louisville Pre-July 18 -20 PM2.5 Episode (high AOD in TN, AL, MS, GA, & SC) • July 19 – Louisville had 3rd annual PM 2.5 maximum of 39.3 ug/m3.

  21. 7/17/2006 GOES Aerosol/Smoke Product (GASP)

  22. 7/19/2006 GOES Aerosol/Smoke Product (GASP)The GASP product is a retrieval of the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) made from the current GOES East visible imagery

  23. CONCLUSIONS This 2006 Louisville PM2.5 case study has illustrated the impact of Tropical Storm Beryl (TS Beryl) on our annual maximal (e.g. 1st , 2nd and 3rd max.) concentrations. They were 1st Max (48.2 ug/m3) -7/20/2006, 2nd Max (39.6 ug/m3)-7/18/2006, and 3rd Max (39.3 ug/m3)- 7/19/2006. The NOAA Hurricane Prediction Center tracked and summarized the activities of this tropical system from July 18 to July 20, 2006. By studying both Beryl in 2006 and Ophelia in 2005, the finding of the longer resident time of Carolina’s coastal tropical systems associated with the highest PM 2.5 readings in Louisville. By extending this findings to applying to the maximal data set of 2001 – 2004, it again shows a strong association ( 20/24 = 83% with 2 maximum from winters in 2001 and 2003 – See Table 1&2 for details) with Louisville annual maximal values. The statistical analysis of the latitude and longitude data for these tropical systems is listed in Table 2. It shows significant geographical affinity to the Carolina’s Mid-Atlantic areas, namely the Mean is ( –32.3, 71.9) and the Median is (-32, 75). Further studies the relationship of annual maximal values with surface synoptic conditions and type of NOAA HYSPLIT trajectories, this case study learned that three strong predictor variables can be identified and utilized for future 1st- 4th maximum PM2.5 episode forecasts.

  24. CONCLUSIONS (Cont’d): The three strong predictor variables are 1) a pending frontal passage, 2) blocking or rolling blocking by Carolina’s coastal tropical systems or even a stalled low pressure system (e.g. 8/20/03-1st max.,09/09/03-2nd max.,and 8/25/06-4th max., and 3) backward trajectories have a) vertical mixing, b) east, southeast and south re-circulation of polluted air mass, and c) subsidence to associate with a Louisville and regional stagnation.

  25. Credits • UNISYS Corp. • NOAA/National Hurricane Center • NOAA/National Weather Services - Louisville • AIRNow/EPA • NOAA Environmental Satellites, Data and Information Service (NESDIS) • Dr. W. Geoffrey Cobourn, Mechanical Engineering Department, University of Louisville

  26. References: 1. Arthur F. Chang, Cynthia H. Lee, and Steve Sherman. US EPA 2006 National Air Quality Conference, “ Observations of 2005 Tropical Storms and Hurricanes Impact on Louisville Metro PM 2.5 Pollution Forecasting”, 2006, Poster # 14 2.Hubbard, M.C.; Cobourn, W.C. Development of a Regression Model to Forecast Ground-Level Ozone Concentration in Louisville, KY; Atmos. Environ. 1998, 32, 2637-2647. 3.Cobourn, W.G.; Hubbard, M.C. An Enhanced Ozone Forecasting Model Using Air Mass Trajectory Analysis; Atmos. Environ.1999, 33, 4663-4674. 4.Cox, W.M.; Chu, S. Meteorologically Adjusted Ozone Trends in Urban Areas: A Probabilistic Approach; Atmos. Environ. Part B. Urban Atmos.1993, 27, 425-434. 5.Bloomfiedl, P.; Royle, J.A.; Steinberg, L.J.; Yang, Q. Accounting for Meteorological Effects in Measuring Urban Ozone Levels and Trends; Atmos. Environ.1996, 30, 3067-3077. 6.Tropical Storms and Hurricanes Data; Available at National Hurricane Center:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/index.shtml (accessed 2005 and 2006) 7.PM 2.5 2003 – 2005 Mapping Data; Available at EPA AIRNow: http://www.airnow.gov/ (accessed 2005 and 2006) 8.U.S. Surface Weather Mapping Data; Available at UNISYS Corp: http://weather.unisys.com/surface (accessed 2005 and 2006) 9.Louisville Local Weather Data; Available at Louisville National Weather Service (NWS): http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/forecasts/OHZ032.php?warncounty=OHC151&city=Louisville (accessed 2005 and 2006) 10. NOAA Environmental Satellites, Data and Information Service (NESDIS), GOES Aerosol/Smoke Product (GASP) http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/star/AQ_index.php

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