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BehavePlus and WFAS

BehavePlus and WFAS. Matt Jolly mjolly@fs.fed.us Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory. Outline. BehavePlus 4.0 Feature Overview Intermediate Outputs Load transfer versus percent cured Special case fuel models File management Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS) Overview

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BehavePlus and WFAS

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  1. BehavePlus and WFAS Matt Jolly mjolly@fs.fed.us Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory

  2. Outline • BehavePlus 4.0 Feature Overview • Intermediate Outputs • Load transfer versus percent cured • Special case fuel models • File management • Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS) Overview • Gridded fire danger forecast system • Google Earth Products • Spatial Fire Potential Assessment Tools

  3. BehavePlus Version 4.0

  4. Suite of fire behavior systems • BehavePlusfire modeling system • FlamMapfire behavior mapping and analysis system • FARSITEfire area simulator • FSProfire spread probabilities

  5. Suite of fire behavior systems • Based on essentially the same fire models (equations) • Spatial systems don’t eliminate the need for a point-based BehavePlus • BehavePlus should be used in direct support of the spatial systems

  6. BehavePlus • Conditions constant in time, uniform in space • Rarely should a single calculation done • Look at the effect of a range of values on the results Rate of Spread vs. Live Fuel Moisture for four Fuel Models Fire type (surface, torching, crowning) for 20-ft wind 0 to 30 mi/h

  7. Value Range Example

  8. BehavePlus -- Past • The old BEHAVE system consisted of 5 programs • BURN subsystem: FIRE1, FIRE2, RxWindow • FUEL subsystem: NEWMDL, TSTMDL

  9. 1984 – BEHAVE fire behavior prediction and fuel modeling system Silent 700 remote terminals “Are you using a computer with a screen?” …NO …

  10. 38 models 41 references

  11. Fire Models are grouped into Modules • SURFACE – Surface fire spread • CROWN – Crown fire • SAFETY – Safety zone size • SIZE – Size of a point source fire • CONTAIN – Fire containment • SPOT – Spotting distance • SCORCH – Crown scorch • MORTALITY – Tree mortality • IGNITE – Probability of ignition • ‘BEHAVE’ is not equal to ‘Rothermel’s fire model’

  12. New and useful features in Version 4.0

  13. Example: Fuel model GR4 • User specification of load transfer • Dynamic fuel models • Curing calculated from live fuel moisture LFM = 120% Load xfer = 0% (calculated) ROS = 1 ch/h FL = 0.4 ft LFM = 120% Load xfer = 40% (user input) ROS = 30 ch/h FL = 5.3 ft 120 % Difference between ‘curing’ and ‘load transfer’?

  14. Characteristic dead fuel moisture from 1-h, 10-h, 100-h moisture • More intermediate values

  15. Decompose the components of the Rothermel surface fire spread model Heat Source = Heat Sink

  16. Aspen Special Case Fuel Model • Five special case fuel models (Brown and Simmerman, 1986) • To enable aspen fuel models in B+: Select “Special case fuel model, western Aspen” under the SURFACE module configuration menu. • Directly define “curing” not percent load transfer. • Outputs probability of aspen mortality.

  17. File management in BehavePlus

  18. Workspaces in BehavePlus • Workspaces store all BehavePlus data into a single, portable directory structure. • Worksheet – Stores an empty worksheet with all module selections and units. • Run – Stores a worksheet and all the numbers. • Live example……

  19. Thoughts for the Future • Reexamination of internal structure to make it easier to add and change models, options, and features • Common Fire Behavior Prediction System User interface • FlamMap, FARSITE, FireFamilyPlus, … • Improved linkages • Weather files from FFP to BehavePlus • Linked with Nelson fuel moisture model • Inputs for a pixel in FlamMap and FARSITE to BehavePlus • Balance application needs • Simple and quick • Advanced analysis

  20. www.FireModels.orgFire Behavior and Fire Danger Software • Fire Behavior • BehavePlus • FlamMap • FARSITE • FSPro • Fire Danger • FireFamilyPlus • WFAS • Research • Wind Wizard • FireStem Register for News

  21. New Training Available • Under the “Training” Link for BehavePlus on firemodels.org: • Overview • Introduction • Operation • Modeling • Application • Self-study, workshops, classroom

  22. Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS) http://www.wfas.net

  23. Gridded Fire Danger Rating System

  24. Why use a grid-based approach? • Nationally-consistent but scaleable to applications across scales as small as local districts to as large as regional and national scale • Spatial fire danger continuum • No voids in data

  25. The Gridded Fire Danger Rating System Operational Gridded Fuel Moisture Products (WFAS) National Digital Forecast Database Spatial Fire Danger Estimates Zonal Summaries to Support Decision making Historical Gridded Climatology

  26. Forecast Initialization • Heavy dead fuel moistures are dependent on previous conditions and thus must be initialized (carried over) • Current implementation used interpolated heavy dead fuel moistures from RAWS stations

  27. Real Time Mesoscale Analysis

  28. RTMA Basics • Joint project with NWS, NCEP, FSL and University of Utah • 13 km RUC forecast/analysis is downscaled to a 5 km NDFD grid. • Precipitation – Derived from NCEP Stage II analysis. • Existing multi-sensor (gauge and radar) Stage II precipitation analysis available 35 minutes past the hour • RTMA is mapped to the 5 km NDFD grid

  29. Real Time Mesoscale Analysis-derived products on WFAS • Hourly gridded weather data for the continental United States • Temperature, dewpoint, winds, precipitation • WFAS is deriving 24 hour summaries from those grids • Max / Min Temp • Max / Min RH • Precipitation amount and duration • Summarized over observations time similar to those at RAWS station (1400 MST) not 0Z to 0Z or 12Z to 12Z • Flexible enough to summarize over other periods such as those needed for morning briefings • Adding Alaska to processing in the coming months

  30. 29 Oct 2008

  31. 1000 hour fuel moisture derived from RTMA gridded meteorology Initialized using constant startup values

  32. RTMA for Alaska also available now

  33. Heavy dead fuel moistures from RTMA • Use the gridded meteorology from the RTMA to derive a 100 and 1000 hour fuel moisture grid • Use these grids to initialize the NDFD fire danger forecasts • Prototype complete and operational • Also: • Calculate national gridded KBDI • Calculate a gridded Energy Release Component and Burning Index for fuel model G for forecast verification • Calculate Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating codes and indices

  34. Seven Day NFDRS Forecasts

  35. The Gridded Fire Danger Rating System Operational Gridded Fuel Moisture Products (WFAS) National Digital Forecast Database Spatial Fire Danger Estimates Zonal Summaries to Support Decision making Historical Gridded Climatology

  36. National Digital Forecast Database • National Weather Service operational gridded forecasts • Updated at least twice daily • 5 Km resolution • Three to six hour forecasts • Entire CONUS, Puerto Rico, Hawaii, Guam and Alaska in varying stages of operational status

  37. NDFD Fire Danger Forecasts • Seven day forecasts updated daily on www.wfas.net • Operational for Energy Release Component (g), Burning Index (g) and Ignition Component • GeoTIFF outputs for direct input to GIS applications • Point retrieval interface • Can provide seven day ERCg and fuel moistures for any point within the grid. • Adding trend maps and multiple panel images soon

  38. Seven Day Fire Danger Forecast

  39. Fire Danger Point Forecast

  40. The Gridded Fire Danger Rating System Operational Gridded Fuel Moisture Products (WFAS) National Digital Forecast Database Spatial Fire Danger Estimates Zonal Summaries to Support Decision making Historical Gridded Climatology

  41. North American Regional ReanalysisExample ERCg Grid

  42. Other new WFAS products

  43. WIMS-derived Fuel Moisture and Fire Danger Data on Google Earth • http://www.wfas.net/google-earth/wfas_nfdr.kmz Updated Daily Will also include links to historical data

  44. Historical Data Link • Link to the FAMWEB weather and fire application. • Currently available under the WFAS Web Map • Download all historical weather data and station catalog information for a station with one click. • Will be added to the Google Earth KMZ file soon.

  45. Spatial Fire Assessment Tools • Open-source Geospatial Tools • Display and analyze spatial data • Point and click time series extraction • Variable time period and Excel export • GeoTIFF subsetting and regional export • Real-time image differencing • Archive search and retrieval • Entire NDVI archive will be online • Currently only a prototype system but will be operational in a next few months

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