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Southeastern Region Economic Outlook

Southeastern Region Economic Outlook. Carbon, Emery, Grand & San Juan Counties February 4, 2010. The Great Recession. How does this recession compare to those in the past?. What is a Recession?. The Two-Quarter Rule: A recession occurs when real GDP declines for two consecutive quarters.

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Southeastern Region Economic Outlook

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  1. Southeastern Region Economic Outlook Carbon, Emery, Grand & San Juan Counties February 4, 2010

  2. The Great Recession How does this recession compare to those in the past?

  3. What is a Recession? The Two-Quarter Rule: A recession occurs when real GDP declines for two consecutive quarters. The NBER Method: The goal is to identify peaks and troughs in overall economic activity. It is based on a consideration of many indicators, the most important of which are real GDP and employment.

  4. Recessions Since 1950 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

  5. Recessions Since 1950 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

  6. Recessions Since 1950 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

  7. Unemployment Rates: Utah and the United States Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

  8. Is the Great Recession Over? When predicting the future of the economy, “The only certainty is that nothing is certain." – Pliny the Elder However, …

  9. Real Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  10. National Employment Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

  11. Utah Employment Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

  12. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

  13. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

  14. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

  15. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

  16. The Southeastern Counties Employment Trends Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

  17. Carbon County Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

  18. Emery CountyYear-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

  19. Carbon and Emery CountiesUnemployment Rates Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

  20. Carbon CountyYear-Over Change in Jobs, 09/2009 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

  21. Emery CountyYear-Over Change in Jobs, 09/2009 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

  22. Grand CountyYear-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

  23. San Juan CountyYear-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

  24. Grand and San Juan CountiesUnemployment Rates Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

  25. Grand CountyYear-Over Change in Jobs, 09/2009 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

  26. San Juan CountyYear-Over Change in Jobs, 09/2009 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

  27. Occupational Trends Employment Outlook, Wages, and Star Ratings

  28. Utah’s Occupational Data • Occupational demand is ultimately based on long-term employment forecasts by industry. Employers are not surveyed. • Job openings arise in two ways: • Replacement of those leaving the occupation • Industry growth • Star Ratings rank occupations according to four training levels. • Star Ratings are based on two criteria: • Employment outlook (10-year forecasts) • Current wage rate (wages are not forecasted)

  29. Occupational projections are produced for five regions: Statewide Cache County Washington County Metro Non-Metro Cache Rich Box Elder Weber Morgan Davis Daggett Summit Salt Lake Tooele Wasatch Duchesne Uintah Utah Juab Carbon Sanpete Emery Millard Grand Sevier Beaver Piute Wayne Iron Garfield San Juan Kane Washington

  30. Utah Non-MetroMost Annual Openings 2006-2016 Five Star Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

  31. Five Star OccupationsAssociate’s, Bachelor’s, or Higher Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

  32. Five Star OccupationsOn-the-Job Training/Work Experience (I) Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

  33. Five Star OccupationsOn-the-Job Training/Work Experience (II) Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

  34. Four Star OccupationsAssociate’s, Bachelor’s, or Higher Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

  35. Four Star OccupationsOn-the-Job Training/Work Experience Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

  36. Education Pays Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

  37. For More Information: John Krantz Utah Department of Workforce Services jkrantz@utah.gov (801) 526-9403 To access this presentation: • Go to jobs.utah.gov • Click on “Workforce Information” • Then click on “Publications”

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