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COM546 : Frameworks and Theories: Diffusion and Adoption

COM546 : Frameworks and Theories: Diffusion and Adoption

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COM546 : Frameworks and Theories: Diffusion and Adoption

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  1. COM546 : Frameworks and Theories: Diffusion and Adoption Kathy E. Gill 27 January 2009

  2. Theories (recap) (1/2)

  3. Theories (recap) (2/2)

  4. Two Theories of Mediated Communication • Shannon-Weaver • “Transmission model” or “hypodermic model • Osgood & Schramm • “Circular model” that stresses the social natureof communication

  5. Thinking About Rogers and Christensen …

  6. Linear innovation-diffusion theory The process by which aninnovationiscommunicatedthrough certainchannelsover timeamong the members of asocial system. Rogers, 1995, page 5

  7. Elements • Innovation • Social system • Time • Communications channels

  8. Innovation • An idea, practice, or object that is perceived as new by an individual or other unit of adoption

  9. Communication • A process in which participants create and share information with one another in order to reach mutual understanding

  10. Time • Source

  11. Infographic credited to NYT

  12. Social System • A set of interrelated units that are engaged in joint problem-solving to accomplish a common goal. • Members or units of a social system may be individuals, informal groups, organizations, and/or subsystems.

  13. Innovation-Decision Process • The mental process through which an individual passes : from knowledge to forming an attitude toward the innovation (adopt, reject)

  14. Rogers: Five steps of adoption • Knowledge • Persuasion • Decision (adopt or reject) • Implementation • Confirmation

  15. Critical Mass • Rogers (1995) : "the critical mass occurs at the point at which enough individuals have adopted an innovation so that the innovation's further rate of adoption becomes self-sustaining.”

  16. Adopter categories • Innovators • Early adopters • Early majority • Late majority • Laggards

  17. Forecast: US Household Technology Adoption, 2005-2010 Forrester Reports. July 2005, Data Overview “The State Of Consumers And Technology: Benchmark 2005”

  18. The Five-Year Forecast: Household Devices, Access July 2008 “Benchmark 2008: Forecast Growth Of Devices And Access In The US”

  19. The Five-Year Forecast: Personal Devices July 2008 “Benchmark 2008: Forecast Growth Of Devices And Access In The US”

  20. More than 55% of households will have a DVR by 2011? Source: Forrester’s North American Consumer Technology Adoption Study 2006 Benchmark Survey

  21. Technological Innovations • Hardware - the tool that embodies the technology as a material or physical object. • Software - the knowledge base for the tool

  22. For additional thought … • Increasing capacity w/out adding wires (telegraph). Parallels today? • Grey v Bell …. Jobs v Gates? …. ? v Google? • What is today’s “railroad” sector? • Price models: Bell’s renting the phone, IBM’s renting the mainframe, cellphone contracts … what do they have in common?

  23. Thinking About Rogers and Christensen … we’ll talk about disruptive technologies

  24. Credits • Presentation by Kathy E. Gill, kegill@u.washington.edu, @kegill CC share-and-share alike, non-commercial use • “S-curve” from http://www.ofcom.org.uk/research/cm/cm05/overview05/keycomms/