Why Are Interstate Territorial Disputes War Prone?

1. Why Are Interstate Territorial Disputes War Prone? Johan M.G. van der Dennen University of Groningen

2. Territoriality & War • In the modern global system most wars occur between neighbors, and this is due to the territorial propensity of human collectivities to be highly sensitive to any dispute over land that resorts to the threat or use of force.

3. Territoriality & War • In the modern global system most wars occur between neighbors, and this is due to the territorial propensity of human collectivities to be highly sensitive to any dispute over land that resorts to the threat or use of force. • From the more than 2000 militarized disputes examined by Vasquez & Henehan (1999) it appears that territorial disputes have a higher probability of going to war compared to policy disputes or disputes over regime or form of government.

4. Territoriality & War • Territorial disputes have produced more wars than any other type of issue, even though they have not accounted for most of the issues that have given rise to militarized confrontation from 1816-1992.

5. Territoriality & War • Territorial disputes have produced more wars than any other type of issue, even though they have not accounted for most of the issues that have given rise to militarized confrontation from 1816-1992. • Second, while territorial disputes are the most prone to war, they are not the only kinds of disputes that give rise to wars. This shows that issues other than territorial disputes can give rise to war and that territorial disputes are not a necessary condition for war.

6. Territoriality & War • Third, although territorial disputes are the most likely to escalate, the probability of any one dispute escalating to war is still quite small.

7. Territoriality & War • Third, although territorial disputes are the most likely to escalate, the probability of any one dispute escalating to war is still quite small. • What determines whether they will ultimately go to war is how they are handled: • making alliances aimed at aggregating capability; • building up one's military capability (armament); • using realpolitik bargaining techniques.

8. Territoriality & War Theoretical Rationale • Once territorial claims are militarized, this reflects a certain level of commitment on the part of actors that they are not willing to give in on their claims, and that other possible paths to resolving the dispute (such as negotiation) do not appear fruitful.

9. Territoriality & War Theoretical Rationale • Once territorial claims are militarized, this reflects a certain level of commitment on the part of actors that they are not willing to give in on their claims, and that other possible paths to resolving the dispute (such as negotiation) do not appear fruitful. • Such disputes, especially between relative equals, are apt to recur.

10. Territoriality & War Theoretical Rationale • Once territorial claims are militarized, this reflects a certain level of commitment on the part of actors that they are not willing to give in on their claims, and that other possible paths to resolving the dispute (such as negotiation) do not appear fruitful. • Such disputes, especially between relative equals, are apt to recur. • This recurrence engenders increasing hostility and a sense of rivalry with all that this entails (= escalation of violence).

11. Territoriality & War • One obvious reason would be that the territory in question has some intrinsic value in terms of resources or economic utility.

12. Territoriality & War • One obvious reason would be that the territory in question has some intrinsic value in terms of resources or economic utility. • BUT except in times of major system war, the economic importance of territory is not a significant factor in such disputes escalating.

13. Territoriality & War • A second possible reason that states are unwilling to compromise is that the territory is of strategic value.

14. Territoriality & War • A second possible reason that states are unwilling to compromise is that the territory is of strategic value. • Because it touches on questions of national security more of the public or other policy influencers are going to become involved in the issue.

15. Territoriality & War • A second possible reason that states are unwilling to compromise is that the territory is of strategic value. • Because it touches on questions of national security more of the public or other policy influencers are going to become involved in the issue. • In addition, such territory, unlike economically valuable territory, might not be perceived as divisible and hence have a more zero-sum quality to it, inhibiting negotiated settlement.

16. Territoriality & War • A third reason for territorial disputes lies not with the value of the land, but with the people on it. Ethnicity has been considered a legitimate reason for claiming territory, even if it is not in one's possession.

17. Territoriality & War • A third reason for territorial disputes lies not with the value of the land, but with the people on it. Ethnicity has been considered a legitimate reason for claiming territory, even if it is not in one's possession. • Such claims are fiercely resisted by multi-ethnic states since they are loathe to give up territory that is part of their country.

18. Territoriality & War • Peoples often construct their identity around territory.

19. Territoriality & War • Peoples often construct their identity around territory. • Sometimes, particular pieces of land because of their historical significance (often associated with a previous war) can assume a symbolic value that is of especial importance for an identity group (e.g., Kosovo for the Serbs).

20. Territoriality & War • Peoples often construct their identity around territory. • Sometimes, particular pieces of land because of their historical significance (often associated with a previous war) can assume a symbolic value that is of especial importance for an identity group (e.g., Kosovo for the Serbs). • In such cases, the issues evoke emotional and normative elements that go beyond 'rational' economic or strategic value.

21. Territoriality & War • The idea of sovereignty, which traces its origins back to ideas of kingship, is intimately connected with control of territory.

22. Territoriality & War • The idea of sovereignty, which traces its origins back to ideas of kingship, is intimately connected with control of territory. • In the modern nation-state system, territory becomes not only the psychological foundation of a people (the identity function), but the legal foundation of the state they inhabit (the constitutive function). Anything that infringes on this is apt to be a salient issue.

23. Territoriality & War • Lastly, one common source of territorial disputes must be seen as attempts to change or demark borders.

24. Territoriality & War • Lastly, one common source of territorial disputes must be seen as attempts to change or demark borders. • It follows from this rationale that the more borders a state has, the more wars it is going to have.

25. Territoriality & War In sum, states can be said to fight over territory for six political reasons: • disagreements about the border, • the economic value of the land, • its strategic value, • its ethnicity, • and because of its identity and • constitutive functions.

26. Territoriality & War