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E NERGÍA EN EL M UNDO LA ERA DE LA ESCASEZ Marcelo Martínez Mosquera

E NERGÍA EN EL M UNDO LA ERA DE LA ESCASEZ Marcelo Martínez Mosquera Foro de la Ingeniería – 23 de Julio de 2008. 1. ENERGY IN THE WORLD. W ORLD P RIMARY E NERGY D EMAND BY S ECTOR. Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2007. W ORLD P RIMARY E NERGY C ONSUMPTION 2007.

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E NERGÍA EN EL M UNDO LA ERA DE LA ESCASEZ Marcelo Martínez Mosquera

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  1. ENERGÍA EN EL MUNDO LA ERA DE LA ESCASEZ Marcelo Martínez Mosquera Foro de la Ingeniería – 23 de Julio de 2008

  2. 1. ENERGY IN THE WORLD

  3. WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY DEMANDBY SECTOR Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2007

  4. WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION 2007 Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2008

  5. ENERGY GROWTH Last 5 years: annual growth Oil 2.0 % Natural Gas 3.1 % Coal 5.7 % Nuclear 0.4 % Hydro 3.1 % TOTAL 3.3%

  6. 2. OIL

  7. WORLD OIL PRICES AND PRODUCTION 90s 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 May-08 [USD/bbl] WTI 20.7 25.9 26.2 31.1 41.5 56.6 66.0 72.2 125.4 [MMbbl/d] % 2007 OPEC 31.3 29.9 31.9 34.4 36.0 36.3 35.9 43.2% FSU 8.6 9.4 10.3 11.2 11.6 12.2 12.8 15.4% Rest of the World 35.2 35.6 35.6 35.5 34.9 34.6 34.5 41.4% TOTAL 75.1 74.9 77.8 81.1 82.5 83.1 83.2 100% Source: Oil Market Report IEA - Platts

  8. 20042006 [B USD] Rest of the World 100.0 162.0 China 12.6 21.5 UPSTREAM INVESTMENTS

  9. ATHABASCA OIL SANDS & ORINOCO FAJA • THE OIL FACTORY • Process: • Mining: deforestation, elimination of non-bitumen soil, mining, transport to the mill (3 tonnes of mineral are needed for every barrel produced) crushing and filtering, “primary refining” to obtain bitumen, transport of the by-products to the place of origin, transport of the bitumen mixed with a solvent to an ad hoc refinery which transforms the bitumen into synthetic oil, then sold to normal refineries around the world. • Steam Injection:drilling a dual well with two horizontal conduits, sourcing water and then natural gas to produce steam and inject it into the well through one of the horizontal conduits, producing hot bitumen through the other conduit and repeating the double refinery process in the same way as in the Mining process. • Investment: • 15 USD billion to produce 100 000 bbl/d

  10. WORLD PEAK OIL Source: The Future of Oil, Maurice Dusseault

  11. BIO-FUELS • Ex-Refinery Cost • [USD/liter] Bio-Fuel B-F equivalent Oil Oil • Bio-diesel – soybean oil 1.46 1.62 0.94 • Bio-ethanol – corn 0.75 1.13 0.94 • Bio-ethanol – sugar 0.46 0.68 0.94 • ALL seed oil production => 7% of diesel oil demand • ALL sugar and corn production => 20% of gasoline demand • May-08

  12. 90s 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 [USD/bbl] WTI 20.7 25.9 26.2 31.1 41.5 56.6 66.0 72.2 [MMbbl/d] WORLD DEMAND 75.1 74.9 77.8 81.1 82.5 83.1 83.2 WORLD OIL DEMAND “The problem with oil is that demand is too young and supply is too old”. Matthew Simmons Source: Oil Market Report IEA - Platts

  13. GASOLINE DIESEL OIL [USD/liter] US 0.91 1.03 Germany 2.15 1.99 China 0.80 -- India 1.20 0.90 Brazil 1.46 1.10 Argentina  0.81 0.60 RETAIL PRICES Source: EIA-DOE, ANP, Argentine Energy Secretariat and own research – May-08

  14. WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION 2007 Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2008

  15. ELECTRICITY INVESTMENT FUEL COST O&M TOTAL [USD/kW] [USD/MWh] [USD/unit] [USD/MWh] [USD/MWh] [USD/MWh] Natural Gas -CC 800 13.1 12 USD/MMbtu85.2 4102 Coal -ST 2,000 38.5140 USD/ tn51.1696 Fuel Oil – ST 1,500 27.1632 USD/tn141.9 7176 Diesel Oil – CC 800 13.11 205 USD/tn191.05209 Nuclear 3,500 70.8140 USD/kg4.9884 Hydro 3,000 105.1 - - 7112 Wind 2,000 95.9 - - 6102 Solar 6,000 402.3 - - 14416 WTI= 125 U$S/bbl Source: Own research

  16. ELECTRICITY Investment + Fuel Cost + O&M Paper MMM 2007 1Q-2008 [USD/MWh] [USD/MWh] Natural Gas -CC72 102 Coal -ST69 96 Fuel Oil – ST104 176 Diesel Oil – CC119 209 Nuclear66 84 Hydro94 112 Wind88 102 Solar416 416 THRESHOLD 80 100 Source: Own research

  17. 3. NATURAL GAS

  18. 90s 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 May-08 [USD/MMbtu] HENRY HUB 2.2 4.1 3.3 5.6 5.9 8.8 6.8 7.0 11.3 NATURAL GAS PRICES Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2008 given in Natural Gas Week - Bloomberg

  19. NATURAL GAS RESERVES AND PRODUCTION PRODUCTION RESERVES R/P [TCF] [TCF] [years] Russia 21.5 1,577 74 US 19.3 211 11 Iran 4.0 982 246 Qatar 2.1 904 428 Others 56.9 2,589 45 TOTAL 103.8 6,263 60 Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2008

  20. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 [TCF] Russia 19.2 19.6 20.4 20.8 21.1 21.6 21.5 US 19.6 18.9 19.1 18.5 18.1 18.5 19.3 Iran 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.6 3.8 4.0 Qatar 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.1 Others 45.6 47.0 48.8 51.3 53.8 55.7 57.0 TOTAL 87.7 89.1 92.3 95.2 98.2 101.4 103.8 Annual average growth 2002-2007 3% Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2007 - 2008

  21. 2007 [TCF] Own consumption (via gas pipeline) 75.8 73% Exports via gas pipeline 19.4 19% Exports via LNG 8.0 8% TOTAL 103.2 100% NATURAL GAS PROFILE Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2008

  22. Europe & Eurasia North America 2,098 TCF 281 TCF Middle East 2,585 TCF Asia Pacific 511 TCF South & Central America 273 TCF Africa 515 TCF NATURAL GAS RESERVES Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2008

  23. MM USDUSD/MMbtu Liquefaction 2,200 2.2 Transport* (ships) 600 – 1,000 0.8 - 1.1 Regasification 800 0.7 TOTAL 3,600 – 4,000 3.7 – 4.0 LNG INVESTMENTS • Depending on distance • Sep-07

  24. 4. COAL

  25. PRODUCTION RESERVES R/P [MMtn] [MMtn] [years] China 2,537 114,500 45 US 1,039 242,721 234 India 478 56,498 118 Australia 394 76,600 194 Russia 314 157,010 500 South Africa 269 48,000 178 Others 1,365 152,159 112 TOTAL 6,396 847,488 133 COAL RESERVES AND PRODUCTION “Coal is the best of fuels, coal is the worst of fuels” Kenneth Deffeyes Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2008

  26. NATURAL GAS COAL COAL CC ST IGCC Investment [USD/kW] 800 2,000 3,000 Fuel Cost 12 USD/MMbtu 140 USD/tn 140 USD/tn Generation Cost [USD/MWh] 102 96 112 Emissions [CO2 tn/MWh] 0.432 0.894 0.350 COAL vs. NATURAL GAS GENERATION COSTS Source: Own Research – EIA-DOE

  27. CO2 tn/MWh SOURCE Coal 0.894 Oil 0.659 Natural Gas 0.432 Nuclear - Wind  - Hydro - EMISSIONS Source: EIA-DOE

  28. 5. NUCLEAR

  29. PRODUCTION RESOURCES [TU/year] [TU] Canada 9,862 444,000 Australia 7,593 1,143,000 Kazakhstan 5,279 816,000 Niger 3,434 225,000 Russia 3,400 172,000 Others 10,087 1,943,000 TOTAL 39,655 4,743,000 R/P [years] 120 URANIUM RESOURCES AND PRODUCTION Source: World Nuclear Association

  30. 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Mar-08 [USD/kg] Price U3O8 20 22 25 41 64 110 200 157 URANIUM PRICES Source: Trade Tech – www.uranium.info

  31. REACTORS Mar-08 GENERATION 07 No CAPACITY [MWe] [billion kWh] US 104 99,049 806.6 France 59 63,473 420.1 Japan 55 47,577 267.0 Russia 31 21,743 148.0 Germany 17 20,339 133.2 China 11 8,587 59.3 Others 162 111,221 773.8 TOTAL 439 371,989 2,608 UTILIZATION FACTOR 80% NUCLEAR REACTORS Source: World Nuclear Association

  32. WIND POWER 2006 2007 [MW] Germany 20,622 22,247 Spain 11,615 15,145 US 11,603 16,818 India 6,270 8,000 Denmark  3,136 3,125 China 2,604 6,050 Others 18,383 22,738 TOTAL 74,233 94,123 Source: Global Wind Energy Council

  33. 6. ARGENTINA

  34. ENERGY CONSUMPTION 2007 WORLD ARGENTINA Source: Argentine Energy Secretariat - BP Statistical Review of World 2008

  35. 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 MMToe 65.4 63.0 68.3 71.4 71.7 77.9 ARGENTINE ENERGY CONSUMPTION Source: Argentine Energy Secretariat

  36. ELECTRICITY GENERATION 2007 WORLD ARGENTINA Source: Cammesa- EIA DOE – IEA – World Nuclear Association

  37. 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 GWh 86,015 81,348 86,442 93,286 98,160 104,627 108,482 ARGENTINE ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION Source: Cammesa

  38. ARGENTINE OIL PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION Source: Argentine Energy Secretariat

  39. ARGENTINE NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION Source: Argentine Energy Secretariat – IAPG - Enargas

  40. 7. CONCLUSIONES Energía en el mundo La era de la escasez MMM- Septiembre 07

  41. CONCLUSIONES Preámbulo “Se avecinan tiempos de escasez y de precios cada vez más altos. Nuestro estilo de vida está cambiando y va a seguir cambiando. Será un cambio ordenado si los responsables en el orden mundial reaccionan a tiempo. Será un cambio caótico si, como hasta ahora, los hechos llevan la delantera y las decisiones se toman cuando ya es demasiado tarde.” La Tecnología “Muchos analistas confían en que los proyectos de investigación y desarrollo en curso aportarán nuevas y maravillosas fuentes que solucionen nuestros problemas energéticos y, también, ambientales. “El ser humano tiene una enorme creatividad, pronto surgirá la tecnología adecuada”, escuchamos con frecuencia. Mi opinión es que, posiblemente, habrá novedades, pero nada nos evitará entrar de lleno en la crisis que se avecina.”

  42. CONCLUSIONES P x Q . Oferta y Demanda “En la ecuación energética de P, precio, y Q, cantidad, ambas tan importantes para nuestra vida en general, la única variable que debería interesarle a partir de ahora a los países y a las sociedades en general es “asegurar Q”. A cualquier precio, porque la energía más cara es la que no se tiene.” ¿Quién se hace cargo? “Desde el tablero de las decisiones energéticas, los tiempos se cuentan en lustros o décadas. Cuando llega el dolor es tarde porque ya no hay tratamiento posible. Se requieren verdaderos estadistas a escala mundial para corregir el rumbo a tiempo, principalmente porque ninguna de las soluciones posibles tiene “aceptación pública” inmediata.”

  43. ENERGÍA EN EL MUNDO LA ERA DE LA ESCASEZ Marcelo Martínez Mosquera Foro de la Ingeniería – 23 de Julio de 2008

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