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“Weather 101” – or Beyond the Weather Channel

“Weather 101” – or Beyond the Weather Channel . Edward J. Hopkins, PhD Assistant Wisconsin State Climatologist Dept. of Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences University of Wisconsin-Madison 20 June 2012 Dodge & Fond du Lac County Forage Council Twilight Meeting University of Wisconsin-Extension

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“Weather 101” – or Beyond the Weather Channel

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  1. “Weather 101” – or Beyond the Weather Channel Edward J. Hopkins, PhD Assistant Wisconsin State Climatologist Dept. of Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences University of Wisconsin-Madison 20 June 2012 Dodge & Fond du Lac County Forage Council Twilight Meeting University of Wisconsin-Extension Mayville, WI

  2. Differences between Weather & Climate • “Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.” • Weather is – • Weather (“weder”) • State of atmosphere at a given place or time. • Climate is – • Climate (“klima”) • Typical conditions & extremes for a local.

  3. Seehttp://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/mkx/pdf/newsletter/Spring_2012_Vol4_Iss1.pdfSeehttp://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/mkx/pdf/newsletter/Spring_2012_Vol4_Iss1.pdf • http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/poe_index.php?lead=1&var=t • The group will certainly be different than the 2005 group.  I would suggest building the topic as close to the weather conditions that are we are currently experiencing. The summer solstice is a great point from which to begin. What has happened prior to that point (known) to predicting what will happen in the rest of the growing season. I think that growing degree days is a great indicator of what has happened weather-wise and what is needed to make a successful crop from that point on. (Just a suggestion for a point from which to start.)My nephew (who says that he had you for a class at UW and now works at The Weather Channel) says that Monsanto has contracted with TWC as a partnership in developing new hybrids. He is tight-lipped on what that is about, but perhaps you would have some insight into this as well. • http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/gdd.shtml • http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/grodgree.txt

  4. Extreme rain events in Midwest double over last 50 years -- The non-profit Rocky Mountain Climate Organization and the Natural Resources Defense Council recently released a study entitled "Doubled Trouble: More Midwestern Extreme Storms," revealing a dramatic increase in the number of major precipitation events that produce deadly and costly flooding across eight Midwestern States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin) over the last half century. Rainstorms producing three or more inches in 24 hours increased by 103 percent between 1961 and 2011. [The Rocky Mountain Climate Organization] http://www.rockymountainclimate.org/reports_3.htm

  5. COMPARISONS BETWEEN WEATHER & CLIMATE • Weather • Current Weather Observational Data • Weather Maps • Weather Forecasts

  6. MADISON’S CURRENT WEATHER • Madison Weather at 1000 AM CST MON 21 FEB 2005 • Updated twice an hour at :05 and :25 • Sky/Weather CLOUDY • Temperature 32°F • Dew Point 22°F • Relative Humidity 66% • Wind NW 8 mph • Pressure 1014.9 mb (29.97 in)

  7. TODAY’S NATIONAL WEATHER

  8. TOMORROW’S NATIONAL WEATHER

  9. COMPARISONS BETWEEN WEATHER & CLIMATE • Weather • Current Weather Observational Data • Weather Maps • Weather Forecasts • Climate • Long-term statistics • Climate maps & charts • Long Range Forecasts/Outlooks

  10. Highest average temperatures In mid July Summer Solstice on 21 June

  11. From National Climatic Data Center

  12. Anomaly = actual current T - long term average T

  13. Summer (JJA) 2012 OutlookFrom NOAA Climate Prediction Center Temperature Outlook Precipitation Outlook

  14. Differences between Weather and Climate • “Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get” • Weather is – • State of atmosphere at a given place or time. • Climate is – • Typical conditions & extremes • What’s the bottom line? • Be able to react and cope with each.

  15. Weather/Climate Forecasting • Folklore/Legends • Some folklore has scientific merit • Red sunsets/sunrises • Rainbows • Haloes

  16. Red skies (or sails):Red sails at night, sailors delight,Red sails at morning, sailors take warning

  17. RainbowsIf seen in evening, fair weather aheadBut, unsettled weather when seen in morning.

  18. Halo PhenomenaUsually indicates precipitation within 48 hours

  19. Folklore • Some folklore has scientific merit • Red sunsets/sunrises • Rainbows • Haloes • But others do not • Groundhog Day

  20. Groundhog Day • If Candlemas be fair and bright,Winter has another flight.If Candlemas brings clouds and rain,Winter will not come again. • Six more weeks of winter • Early spring? Jimmy the Groundhog of Sun Prairie did not see his shadow on 2 Feb 2005!

  21. Almanacs • Forecasts derived from “a secret formula” • devised by Almanac founder Robert B. Thomas in 1792 • He believed that weather was influenced by sunspots. • Today they employ 3 “scientific disciplines” to make long-range predictions: • solar science • climatology • meteorology • “our results are almost always very close to our traditional claim of 80 percent.”

  22. What “The Old Farmers Almanac” Thinks(Nov 2004-Oct 2005) Above average Dec Temp & precip Above average Dec Temp & precip

  23. Warm west, chilly east

  24. Dry west, wet east

  25. Weather/Climate Forecasting • Folklore/Legends • Persistence or Trends

  26. Persistence or Trends • Forecast future event based upon a current condition or trend: • What happened yesterday or today, will happen tomorrow. • Or • Move weather systems along with same speed.

  27. Trends

  28. Nowcasts

  29. Current Drought Conditions

  30. Climate Outlook (Forecast)

  31. Weather/Climate Forecasting • Folklore/Legends • Persistence or Trends • Analogs

  32. Analog • This weather pattern (storm) looks like a previous system. • Keep file of old weather maps • Forecast based upon behavior of previous storm.

  33. SS Edmund Fitgerald – “The Pride of the American side”

  34. Comparison between 10 Nov 1975 & 10 Nov 1998 Storms(From Ackerman & Knox)

  35. Weather/Climate Forecasting • Folklore/Legends • Persistence or Trends • Analogs • Single Station Forecasting

  36. Weather Conditions around Mid latitude Storm system

  37. Weather along Storm Tracks(A) Warm Side vs. (B) Cold side

  38. Weather Conditions on the Warm Side of Storm

  39. Weather Conditions on Cold Side of storm

  40. Weather/Climate Forecasting • Folklore/Legends • Persistence or Trends • Analogs • Single Station Forecasting • Climatology

  41. Using Climatology Record Highs Record Lows

  42. Using Climatology

  43. Using Climatology

  44. Using Climatology

  45. Using Climatology

  46. Probability Forecast based on Climatology Madison: 2 of 3 or 67% Green Bay: 3 of 4 or 77% Wausau: 9 of 10 or 93%

  47. Weather/Climate Forecasting • Folklore/Legends • Persistence or Trends • Analogs • Single Station Forecasting • Climatology • Numerical Weather Prediction

  48. Numerical Weather Prediction • Developed in last 50 years • Run on super computers • Use Equations that employ: • Newton’s Laws of Motion • Conservation of mass & energy • Gas laws & thermodynamics

  49. Numerical Weather PredictionMaking a grid of initial data 40 km  40 km 50 levels

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