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Has Stabilisation Limited Protectionism? Evidence from the Global Trade Alert

Has Stabilisation Limited Protectionism? Evidence from the Global Trade Alert. Presentation at the ONB 12 February 2010, Vienna Prof. Simon J. Evenett www.globaltradealert.org. Purpose of this presentation and preliminaries.

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Has Stabilisation Limited Protectionism? Evidence from the Global Trade Alert

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  1. Has Stabilisation Limited Protectionism? Evidence from the Global Trade Alert Presentation at the ONB 12 February 2010, Vienna Prof. Simon J. Evenett www.globaltradealert.org

  2. Purpose of this presentation and preliminaries • Having summarised the main findings about contemporary protectionism, to consider if macroeconomic stabilisation has created a break in the resort to discrimination against foreign commercial interests. • Relationship to conference theme on Contagion and Spillovers: • Cross-border linkages, protectionism, and depth of recession (speed of recovery). • Retaliation and emulation of policy measures. • Data source and collection: The Global Trade Alert initiative.

  3. Four Major Findings about Current Protectionism • Implementation rate has been above trend in almost all major trading jurisdictions. • A new mix of protectionism has arisen. • Other than the financial sector, the sectoral incidence of protectionism has not changed. • "Protectionist juggernaut" shows no sign of slowing down.

  4. Business as usual? Above trend resort to protectionism since November 2008 Recent studies point to 2-4 percent of tariff lines being affected in the "average year" Percentage of tariff lines affected by discriminatory measures

  5. Most prevalent discrimination

  6. Has stabilisation limited resort to discrimination? A first cut • Let`s get the caveats out on the table! • Stabilisation for many economies began in Q4 2009. What do we know about the most recent propensity to discriminate against foreign commercial interests? • From Q4 2009 on, 92 discriminatory measures have been implemented by governments. • Reliance on bailouts and trade remedies has not changed. • G20 still responsible for the lion`s share of the measures taken.

  7. Policy implications • Take protectionism seriously—don't diminish it, belittle it, or be complacent. • Vigilance, monitoring, and peer pressure are needed, even as economies recover. • Because much contemporary protectionism is not self-terminating, the G20 should start work devising principles to guide the unwinding of subsidies, bailouts, export incentives, and "buy national" policies.

  8. Our fourth report will be published next week: Visit www.globaltradealert.org Or email me at simon.evenett@gmail.com

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