Presentation Transcript

1. D HR PUBLIC POLICY / WASHINGTON OUTLOOK 113THCONGRESS &OBAMA ADMINISTRATION Leading People. Leading Organizations. Government Affairs CLA Webinar Michael P. Aitken, Vice President, SHRM Government Affairs October 9, 2013
2. Environment Americans See Current Shutdown as More Serious Than in 1995 October 4, 2013 2
3. Presidency President Obama Job Approval 3
4. Congress Congress’ Job Approval Falls to 11% Amid Government Shutdown October 7, 2013 4
5. Shutdowns (Mostly) Shortened After Legal Interpretation Changed Length, in Days, of Government Shutdowns Since 1976 Analysis Between 1976 and 1979, the government shut down 6 times for an average of 11 days each time A 1980 ruling by then-Attorney General Benjamin Civiletti provided a more strict interpretation of the Antideficiency Act as it relates to shutdowns, raising the stakes; between 1981-1990, shutdowns were still frequent, but shorter, averaging 3 days in length A showdown between President Bill Clinton and Republican Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich led to a 5-day shutdown in Nov. 1995 and a 21-day shutdown between Dec. 1995 and Jan. 1996, with an estimated $1.4 billion price tag; since then, the government has tried to avoid another costly, politically perilous shutdown. Source: Clinton T. Brass, “Shutdown of the Federal Government: Causes, Processes, and Effects,” Congressional Research Service, Aug. 6, 2013; Pete Williams, “This would be 18th government shutdown in U.S. History,” NBC News, April 8, 2011. 5
6. Overview 2013 Fall Public Policy Agenda Tax and Benefits Fiscal Train Wreck: Federal Government shut down on October 1. Better than anticipated deficit outlook but debt ceiling will be reached in the next few weeks (Mid October to October, 31). Sequestration for 2014 will trigger $109 billion worth of cuts this year in both discretionary and mandatory spending.   Possible Outcomes: Short-term deal that leads to a “Grand Bargain” or federal budget/debt deal Long-term deal that includes a “Grand Bargain” or federal budget/debt deal No Deal = Default and financial chaos 6
7. The Debt Ceiling Crisis, as the Titanic Treasury Debt Ceiling U.S. Hits Debt Ceiling The U.S. hit its $16.7 billion debt ceiling in May, but Treasury has been able to stay the course by relying — temporarily — on “extraordinary measures” Treasury Able to Fund Federal Programs Earlier this year Treasury had sufficient funds to keep federal programs and benefits afloat $ Treasury Cash on Hand Daily Revenue Treasury Defaults Unprecedented default could cause value of dollar to drop and freeze credit markets Extraordinary Measures Fail Between October 18 and November 5, Treasury predicts it will have exhausted extraordinary measures Federal Programs Rely on Limited Cash and Daily Revenue to Survive Treasury not prepared to fund all programs with these reserves, but no “women and children first” protocol is in place Takeaway The 2013 debt ceiling crisis puts hundreds of federal programs and benefits in danger of delayed or discontinued funding, and puts the U.S. at risk of a credit downgrade. Sources: Congressional Research Service, 2013; Annie Lowrey, “Shutdown vs. Default: The Relative Impact,” The New York Times, September 23, 2013; Jake Sherman, “Jack Lew: Debt Limit No Later Than Oct. 17,” Politico, September 25, 2013. 7
8. Tax and Benefit Issues Budget Primer: Spending 8
9. Overview 2013 Fall Public Policy Agenda Long Term Deal Might Include: Tax Reform Entitlement Reform Delay in PPACA Extension of the debt limit Federal budget funding for 2014 9
10. Overview Passing New Immigration Law is Important to Americans July 11, 2013 10
11. Overview 2013 Fall Public Policy Agenda Immigration Reform President named “Comprehensive Immigration Reform” as one of his top five priorities. Current environment still presents the best chance of comprehensive immigration reform in over 30 years however; other domestic/international issues will likely push final resolution to next year. Senate passed the comprehensive Border Security, Economic Opportunity and Immigration Modernization Act in June. Slim hope for a Bipartisan “Group of 5” in the House to move a comprehensive bill but House more likely to consider a series of “focused” bills late fall. The SHRM/ACIP partnership is part of the dialogue and advocacy effort. 11
12. Overview 2013 Fall Public Policy Agenda Labor and Employment Obama and Congressional Democrats have advocated for increasing the minimum wage and passing the Paycheck Fairness Act although major labor-management legislation unlikely to move through Congress. However, agency activity has increased at DOL and we anticipate activity from EEOC. Regulatory activity in 2013 includes: Final Affirmative Action Regulations – 503/ Veterans DOL proposed a survey on worker misclassification Proposed Persuader Regulation Implementation of SEP by EEOC Full NLRB Board will mean increased regulatory activity: Quickie Election Rule ??? / Specialty Health Care / D.R. Horton 12
13. Overview 2013 Fall Public Policy Agenda Workplace Flexibility Advocates continue to push expansion of FMLA/paid sick leave at state and local level but enactment at federal level impossible. Obama Administration’s focus on workflex will continue. Successful efforts on “comp time” in the House unlikely to translate to the Senate. 13
14. Overview 2013 Fall Public Policy Agenda Health Care Reform Efforts to delay regulatory or amend PPACA legislatively in 2013 may be more possible. Congressional oversight and regulatory guidance continues. Tax-deferred status of health care benefits could become a target in tax reform. Focus on implementation on individual enrollment that began on October 1. 14
15. Health Care Reform Issues 15
16. Health Care Reform Issues Two in Three Uninsured Americans Plan to Buy Insurance 16
17. Michael P. Aitken Vice President, Government Affairs mike.aitken@shrm.org +1-703-535-6027 1800 Duke Street Alexandria, VA 22314 17