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RUSSIA UNDER PUTIN 2.0 AS AN INTERNATIONAL PLAYER

RUSSIA UNDER PUTIN 2.0 AS AN INTERNATIONAL PLAYER. Lowy Institute for International Policy, Sydney. Dr Alexey D Muraviev Coordinator, International Relations & National Security programs Director, Strategic Flashlight forum. School of Social Sciences and Asian Languages. Medvedev’s Legacy.

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RUSSIA UNDER PUTIN 2.0 AS AN INTERNATIONAL PLAYER

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  1. RUSSIA UNDER PUTIN 2.0 AS ANINTERNATIONAL PLAYER Lowy Institute for International Policy, Sydney Dr Alexey D Muraviev Coordinator, International Relations & National Security programs Director, Strategic Flashlight forum School of Social Sciences and Asian Languages

  2. Medvedev’s Legacy • Major foreign policy achievements • Strengthening Russia’s international stance • Effective mitigation of the Georgia war fallout • Signature and ratification of the new START • Admission in WTO • Medvedev as Supreme C-in-C • Swift military reforms • Emphasis on force modernisation and capability upgrade • Victory in the 2008 Russia-Georgia conflict Signing the new START in Prague, 8 April 2010 President Medvedev on board the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier School of Social Sciences and Asian Languages 12.04.2012

  3. The Defence Vector under Putin • A vital element of national power ‘The Army has saved Russia’ Making international partners respect Russia OPK as a key element of national industrial potential • Rebuilding effective military power • Strategic nuclear deterrence • ABM and space defence • Ocean going navy • New cyber command Putin and the T-50 prototype of the fifth-generation fighter, 2010 “Our country faces the task of sufficiently developing its military potential as part of a deterrence strategy. This is an indispensable condition for Russia to feel secure and for our partners to listen to our country's arguments.” School of Social Sciences and Asian Languages 12.04.2012

  4. Putin’s Foreign Policy Vision • Major challenges NATO’s eastward expansion/ABM • Unilateralism/undermining the power of UN • The ‘Arab Spring’ syndrome • Iran, North Korea and WMD proliferation • Afghanistan • The European Factor • Maximum preferences in energy supplies • Creating ‘harmonious commonwealth of economics from Lisbon to Vladivostok’ Putin’s site published ‘Russia in the Changing World’ on 27 February “Russia’s territory - the source of its potential strength…, under the right economic strategy, they [vast territories] may become the key foundation of the increase of [the nation’s] competitiveness.” • The US Factor • Underdeveloped potential • US needs to see in Russia an equal and respectful partner • Economic and humanitarian diplomacy School of Social Sciences and Asian Languages 12.04.2012

  5. The Asian Vector • The Pacific vector • China as the core element • Large-scale joint naval exercises in April, May • The Indian Ocean vector • India • Defence cooperation • Joint investment projects • Common regional and international agenda • Regional frameworks • The Shanghai Group • BRICS Putin’s visit to Beijing, October 2011 “The aims of our foreign policy have strategic, non-conjuncture character and reflect Russia’s unique place on the world’s political map, its role in the history, development of the civilisation.” School of Social Sciences and Asian Languages 12.04.2012

  6. Transport Security Agenda The North-South Transport Corridor School of Social Sciences and Asian Languages 12.04.2012

  7. Principal Challenges in Asia • Russia as a Indo-Pacific player • A lengthy period of disengagement • Absence of a clearly articulated regional strategy • The China Factor • At the core of regional approach • Torn between Europe and Asia • Identifying strategic priorities • Weakened potential • Economic • Military • Demographic • Domestic issues • Declining population • Underdeveloped infrastructure • Tyranny of distance Corruption and organised crime • Scepticism and suspicion • Difficult international partner School of Social Sciences and Asian Languages 22.03.2012

  8. The Afghan Vector Transporting ISAF cargo by rail via Russia Airport Ulyanovsk-Vostochny, Central Russia School of Social Sciences and Asian Languages 12.04.2012

  9. The Antarctic Vector • Fixation on pole politics • Russian discovery in 1821 • Low key activities in the 1990s • Sergei Ivanov’s visit in March 2008 • Developing a road map • Moscow’s Antarctic Strategy • Modernisation of existing polar stations • Construction of a purpose-built research fleet • Special funding • 60.5 bn rubles = US$ 16.9 bn Russian Orthodox Trinity Church, Antarctica Russian airfield in Antarctica School of Social Sciences and Asian Languages 12.04.2012

  10. Space Agenda Floating space-launch facility Sea Launch School of Social Sciences and Asian Languages 12.04.2012

  11. Russia in the Indo-Pacific • Future trends • Continuity under Putin 2.0 • Indo-Pacific in the context of Russia’s wider Asia strategy • China will remain Russia’s barometer of regional engagement • India as a strategic anchor • Central and South Asian affairs = Afghanistan • SCO, BRICS School of Social Sciences and Asian Languages 12.04.2012

  12. QUESTIONS? Russia under Putin 2.0 as an International Player Dr Alexey D MuravievPhone: (+61 8) 9266 2234Email: A.Muraviev@curtin.edu.au School of Social Sciences and Asian Languages

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