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Larry Butz GEA Consulting

Environmental Update. Larry Butz GEA Consulting. La Crosse ASHRAE Meeting December 9, 2008. Agenda. Ozone Depletion Refrigerants Global Warming/Climate Change Energy Alternatives Buildings Energy Use Water Shortages. Ozone Hole Stabilizes.

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Larry Butz GEA Consulting

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  1. Environmental Update Larry ButzGEA Consulting La Crosse ASHRAE Meeting December 9, 2008

  2. Agenda • Ozone Depletion • Refrigerants • Global Warming/Climate Change • Energy Alternatives • Buildings Energy Use • Water Shortages

  3. Ozone Hole Stabilizes The size of this year's Antarctic ozone hole is slightly above the 10-year average in both depth and overall area. Last year's ozone hole broke records for both ozone loss within the critical layer and for the size of the area affected Nov 2008

  4. Radiative Forcing Long-Lived GHGs WMO GHG Bulletin 2008

  5. Halocarbon Concentrations WMO GHG Bulletin 2008

  6. Refrigerants • Coke deploys 100,000 CO2 units by 2010 • Ben & Jerry’s tests 50 HC units • GE unveils plans for first HFC-free household refrigerator to be built and sold in the U.S.; Submits hydrocarbon refrigerant for EPA approval (isobutane) • HCFC 22(new equipment) phaseout 1/1/2010 • DuPont and Honeywell make HFO-1234yf progress

  7. Global Warming & Climate Change Carbon Budget 2007 GCP-Global Carbon Budget team: Pep Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Thomas Conway, Christopher B. Field, Corinne Le Quéré, Richard A. Houghton, Gregg Marland, Michael R. Raupach Last update: 26 September 2008

  8. 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 Emissions from Fossil Fuel + Cement 2007 Fossil Fuel: 8.5 Pg C • 1990 - 1999: 0.9% y-1 • 2000 - 2007: 3.5% y-1 Data Source: G. Marland, T.A. Boden, R.J. Andres, and J. Gregg at CDIAC

  9. Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios Raupach et al 2007, PNAS (updated)

  10. Regional Shift in Emissions Share 62% 57% 53% 49.7% 50.3% 43% 47% 38% Current Kyoto Protocol Enter into Force Percentage of Global Annual Emissions Kyoto Protocol Adopted FCCC Kyoto Reference Year J. Gregg and G. Marland, 2008, personal communication

  11. Carbon Intensity of the Global Economy Kg Carbon Emitted to Produce 1 $ of Wealth Photo: CSIRO Carbon intensity (KgC/US$) 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

  12. Carbon Emissions from Land Use Change Tropical deforestation 13 Million hectares each year Borneo, Courtesy: Viktor Boehm 2000-2007 Tropical Americas 0.6 Pg C y-1 Tropical Asia 0.6 Pg C y-1 Tropical Africa 0.3 Pg C y-1 1.5 Pg C y-1 [2007-Total Anthropogenic Emissions:8.5+1.5 = 10 Pg] Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS; FAO-Global Resources Assessment 2005

  13. 4.2 Pg y-1 Atmosphere 46% 2.6 Pg y-1 + Land 29% 7.5 Pg C y-1 2.3 Pg y-1 Oceans 26% Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2007) 1.5 Pg C y-1 Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS (updated)

  14. Climate Change at 55% Discount Natural CO2 sinks absorb 55% of all anthropogenic carbon emissions slowing down climate change significantly. They are in effect a huge subsidy to the global economy worth half a trillion US$ annually if an equivalent sink had to be created using other climate mitigation options (based on the cost of carbon in the EU-ETS).

  15. The rate of CO2 emissions. The rate of CO2 uptake and ultimately the total amount of C that can be stored by land and oceans: Land: CO2 fertilization effect, soil respiration, N deposition fertilization, forest regrowth, woody encroachment, … Oceans: CO2 solubility (temperature, salinity),, ocean currents, stratification, winds, biological activity, acidification, … Factors that Influence the Airborne Fraction Springer; Gruber et al. 2004, Island Press

  16. Emissions 1 tCO2 400Kg stay Emissions 1 tCO2 450Kg stay Decline in the Efficiency of CO2 Natural Sinks Fraction of all anthropogenic emissions that stay in the atmosphere % CO2 Emissions in Atmosphere 1960 2000 1990 1970 1980 2006 Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

  17. Efficiency of Natural Sinks Land Fraction Ocean Fraction Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

  18. Drivers of Accelerating Atmospheric CO2 • 1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm y-1 1980 – 1989: 1.6 ppm y1 • 1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y-1 • To: • Economic growth • Carbon intensity • Efficiency of natural sinks • 2000 - 2007: 2.0 ppm y-1 65% - Increased activity of the global economy 17% - Deterioration of the carbon intensity of the global economy 18% - Decreased efficiency of natural sinks (calculations based on the period 2000-2006) Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

  19. Anthropogenic CO2 emissions are growing x4 faster since 2000 than during the previous decade, and above the worst case emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Conclusions (i) • Less Developed Countries are now emitting more carbon than Developed Countries. • The carbon intensity of the world’s economy is improving slower than previous decades.

  20. Conclusions (ii) • The efficiency of natural sinks has decreased by 5% over the last 50 years (and will continue to do so in the future), implying that the longer it takes to begin reducing emissions significantly, the larger the cuts needed to stabilize atmospheric CO2. • All these changes have led to an acceleration of atmospheric CO2 growth 33% faster since 2000 than in the previous two decades, implying a stronger climate forcing and sooner than expected.

  21. Global Warming • 2008 Set To Be About 10th Warmest Year • La Nina kept a lid on temperatures in 2008 despite an underlying warming trend, • Carbon dioxide was up most in 2007. It increased to 383.1 ppm, ½ % more than the 2006 amount. Methane and nitrous oxide rose by lesser amounts, • "CO2 alone is responsible for 90 percent of the greenhouse gas warming over the last five years,"

  22. Water Vulnerabilities

  23. Freshwater • Global water consumption is doubling every 20 years, • Water, unlike oil, has no substitute • Climate change is altering the patterns of freshwater availability in complex ways • It is often grossly underpriced—and hence squandered • The water footprint of China is about 700; Japan 1150; U.S. 2500 m3 per year per capita. • Producing biofuels will further deplete the world's already overtaxed water supply. • For 1 gallon of ethanol up to 4,000 gallons of water are required.

  24. Water Shortages • by 2025, two-thirds of the world's population will face periodic and often severe water shortages • In sub-Saharan Africa 42% of the region's population lacks access to a safe water supply • aging infrastructure, inadequate treatment facilities, and contamination pose more problems. • Freshwater already is exported via tankers between France and Algeria and Turkey and Israel.

  25. To Produce   - 1 cup of coffee we need 140 liters of water    - 1 liter of milk requires 1,000 liters of water     - 1 kg of rice requires 3,000 liters of water   - 1 kg of beef we need 16,000 liters of water   Producing biofuels will further deplete the world's already overtaxed water supply. For 1 gallon of ethanol up to 4,000 gallons of water are required.

  26. WaterFootPrint Network Seven global groups, including WBDSC, joined forces to set up the Water Footprint Network, with the aim of working towards a common approach to water footprint measurement, accounting and reporting.

  27. ENERGY

  28. Clean Energy 2008

  29. Clean Energy 2008

  30. Clean Energy 2008

  31. Renewables • Benchmark EUAs traded down to 14.45 euros a tonne on Friday, the lowest level since March 2007 and 50 percent below a 2-year high of 29.69 euros hit last July. • "In places that rely on carbon credits to support new projects, such as China, India and Latin America, the fall in price will delay or possibly kill the marginal, less economically viable projects, In 2007 new investment in sustainable energy reached record levels of $148.4 billion, 60% higher than in 2006.

  32. Renewables • New international agency to promote renewable energies • International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). • is meant to be the first truly international organisation offering both industrialised and developing countries support • The EU has adopted a binding target to source 20% of its energy needs from renewables by 2020

  33. Energy Efficiency • the only by-product of energy efficiency is wealth, in the form of lower fuel bills and less spending on power stations, pipelines. Etc • greater efficiency accounts for two-thirds of anticipated emissions savings • energy intensity is lower in countries where electricity prices are higher

  34. Energy Efficiency in Buildings

  35. Buildings Buildings already account for up to 40% of primary energy use and demand will grow rapidly with economic development, population growth and changing lifestyles

  36. The vast majority of energy consumption occurs during a building’s occupation.

  37. Costs to LEED Certify

  38. Cost of Efficiency Gains

  39. Information Links • IPCC: http://www.ipcc.ch/ • World Meteorological Organization: http://www.wmo.int/pages/index_en.html • Waterfootprint: www.waterfootprint.lorg • International Energy Agency: www.iea.org • Alliance to Save Energy: www.ase.org • World business Council for Sustainable Development: www.wbcsd.org • American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy: www.aceee.org • California Institute for Energy and Environment: www.ciee.ucop.edu • Center for Energy and Climate Solutions: www.energyandclimate.org • CleanEdge: www.cleanedge.com • Consortium for Energy Efficiency: www.cee1.org • Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, U.S. DOE: www.eere.energy.gov • Energy Information Administration, U.S. DOE: www.eia.doe.gov • ENERGY STAR, U.S. EPA: www.energystar.gov • Industrial Assessment Center, U.S. DOE: www.iac.rutgers.edu • Industrial Technologies Program, U.S. DOE: www1.eere.energy.gov/industry • International Association of Energy-Efficient Lighting: www.iaeel.org • North American Insulation Manufacturers Association: www.naima.org • Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnerships: www.neep.org • U.S. Green Building Council: www.usgbc.org • World Energy Efficiency Association: www.weea.org

  40. Environmental Update Newsletter Contact LButz@GEA-Consulting.com or www.gea-consulting.com

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