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D. Results Results are hard to write

D. Results Results are hard to write There are often multiple independent and dependent variables:. D. Results Results are hard to write There are often multiple independent and dependent variables: - effect of density on D. putrida number - effect of density on D. putrida mean mass

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D. Results Results are hard to write

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  1. D. Results Results are hard to write There are often multiple independent and dependent variables:

  2. D. Results Results are hard to write There are often multiple independent and dependent variables: - effect of density on D. putrida number - effect of density on D. putrida mean mass - effect of intra and interspecific comp on D. putrida. - effects on D tripunctata… Pick a species or a dependent variable?

  3. D. Results Results are hard to write There are often multiple independent and dependent variables: Organization of the text might be driven by the best way to present the data visually – what information is in Table 1?

  4. Make a declarative statement about the significance or strength of a pattern: • “The mean number of Drosophila putrida progeny emerging from low density (N=10) and high density (N=20) treatments were significantly different (t-test, t = 6.54, p = 0.05).”

  5. Make a declarative statement about the significance or strength of a pattern: • “The mean number of Drosophila putrida progeny emerging from low density (N=10) and high density (N=20) treatments were significantly different (t-test, t = 6.54, p = 0.05).” • Describe the pattern: • “The mean number of Drosophila putrida progeny emerging from low density (N=10) and high density (N=20) treatments were significantly different (t-test, t = 6.54, p = 0.05).” More flies emerged from high density treatments than from low density treatments (Table 1).

  6. 3) Elaborate. Maybe you do the correlation with size, or another test. “The mean number of Drosophila putrida progeny emerging from low density (N=10) and high density (N=20) treatments were significantly different (t-test, t = 6.54, p = 0.05).” More flies emerged from high density treatments than from low density treatments (Table 1). However, the mean number of flies emerging from high density treatments was not twice as much as the low density treatments; there was only a 25% increase in progeny number with a doubling of initail flies added (20 vs. 10). 4) Now you might move on to the effects on number for D. tripunctata, OR another dependent variable for D. putrida. I think it might be best to keep going with effects on D. putrida… because the effects might reinforce a general pattern that would be more obvious if the pieces were laid consecutively:

  7. 3) Elaborate. Maybe you do the correlation with size, or another test. “The mean number of Drosophila putrida progeny emerging from low density (N=10) and high density (N=20) treatments were significantly different (t = 6.54, p = 0.05).” More flies emerged from high density treatments than from low density treatments (Table 1). However, the mean number of flies emerging from high density treatments was not twice as much as the low density treatments; there was only a 25% increase in progeny number with a doubling of initial flies added (20 vs. 10). 4) Now you might move on to the effects on number for D. tripunctata, OR another dependent variable for D. putrida. I think it might be best to keep going with effects on D. putrida… because the effects might reinforce a general pattern that would be more obvious if the pieces were laid consecutively: The mean mass of D. putrida metamorphs also differed between density treatments (t = 8.2, p = 0.01); flies emerging from low density treatments were larger, on average, than flies emerging from high density treatments (Table 1).

  8. 4) Now you might move on to the effects on number for D. tripunctata, OR another dependent variable for D. putrida. I think it might be best to keep going with effects on D. putrida… because the effects might reinforce a general pattern that would be more obvious if the pieces were laid consecutively: The mean mass of D. putrida metamorphs also differed between density treatments (t = 8.2, p = 0.01); flies emerging from low density treatments were larger, on average, than flies emerging from high density treatments (Table 1). And… There was also a significant decline in mean mass of D. putrida over time (ANOVA, F = 16.2, df = 3, 25, p = 0.001); flies that emerged early were larger than flies that emerged later (Fig 1). So, in this way, we can see the effect of density (10 vs. 20) on all D. putrida responses. This makes it easier for US to make sense of these patterns, as well as helping the reader.

  9. 5) At the end of the results (or at the beginning of the discussion), we might recap the effect of our independent variables ON the response variables. In the first or second sentence of the discussion, we’d say: Intraspecific competition had a significant negative impact on D. putrida metamoph abundance, size, and developmental rate. Metamorphs in the low density treatment were more abundant, larger, and had a faster development time than D. putrida emerging from high density treatments.

  10. Distributions and Transformations

  11. Probability Distributions • A. Uses • - a probability distribution often frames a particular question; it generates a hypothetical distribution based on random chance. These distributions are often used as “standards” – or expected values – to compare observed distributions against. • - to test the hypothesis of chance • - to test whether the assumptions for a test are met (normal).

  12. Probability Distributions • A. Uses • B. Probability • 1. classical probability – based on theory, alone. (chance of a “head” is 0.50, chance of a 5 on a 6-sided die is 1/6, chance of a homozygote recessive from a cross between two heterozygotes is 0.25… etc.) • 2. Empirical probability – based on prior knowledge of the population of interest. Known frequencies of disease, sex ratio, etc.).

  13. Probability Distributions • A. Uses • B. Probability • 1. classical probability – based on theory, alone. (chance of a “head” is 0.50, chance of a 5 on a 6-sided die is 1/6, chance of a homozygote recessive from a cross between two heterozygotes is 0.25… etc.) • 2. Empirical probability – based on prior knowledge of the population of interest. Known frequencies of disease, sex ratio, etc.). • Calculating the probability of these events is done using the • “Rule of Division”: • number of ways an event can occur divided by • the total number of events that can occur.

  14. Probability Distributions • A. Uses • B. Probability • C. Discrete Probability Distributions • – for discrete or categorical variables • 1. Binomial Distribution: for variables with two mutually exclusive and discrete values (“p” and “q”): gametes A or a, sex male or female, heads or tails; and the events occur repeatedly “k” times. • - assumptions: • - the probability of event p and event q are the same each trial • - the trials are independent • - the number of times a value occurs in k trials = x • - the binomial describes the probabilities of each x, p(x), for each • value of x from 0 to k.

  15. Probability Distributions • A. Uses • B. Probability • C. Discrete Probability Distributions • – for discrete or categorical variables • 1. Binomial Distribution: for variables with two mutually exclusive and discrete values (“p” and “q”): gametes A or a, sex male or female, heads or tails; and the events occur repeatedly “k” times. • - distribution = (p + q)k = 1 • - Product Rule: the probability of independent events co-occurring is the product of their independent probabilities.

  16. Flip three coins, both with p(heads) = q(tails) = 0.5. They are independent (don’t affect one another), so probability of 3 heads = (p) x (p) x (p) = p3 (Product/And Rule) 1st a head AND the second AND the third Probability of 2 heads and a tail: (p) x (p) x (q) = 0.125 OR (p) x (q) x (p) = 0.125 OR (q) x (p) x (p) = 0.125 SUM THESE = 0.375 = 3p2q

  17. Flip a coin with p(heads) = 0.5, 3 times (or three coins once… 3 events). Distribution = (p + q)3 = 1 1p3 + 3p2q + 3q2p + 1 q2 = 1 (3 heads, 2 heads:1 tail, 2 tails:1 head, 3 tails) Generic Formula for a given outcome (x) = p(x) = k! pxq(k-x) x! (k-x)! Probability of 3 heads = p(3 heads) = 3*2*1 0.53(0.5)(3-3)= 1 x 0.53 3! (0)!

  18. Distribution = “binomial expansion” = (p + q)3 = 1 1p3+ 3p2q + 3q2p + 1q3 = 1 (3 heads, 2 heads:1 tail, 2 tails:1 head, 3 tails) red = probability of an outcome green = number of outcomes that satisfy those conditions

  19. Pascal’s Triangle: These are the constants for terms in a binomial expansion: 1p3 + 3p2q + 3q2p + 1 q3 = 1 K = 1 K = 2 K = 3 K = 4

  20. Probability Distributions • A. Uses • B. Probability • C. Discrete Probability Distributions • – for discrete or categorical variables • 1. Binomial Distribution: for variables with two mutually exclusive and discrete values (“p” and “q”): gametes A or a, sex male or female, heads or tails; and the events occur repeatedly “k” times. • The number of combinations increases with k…. To the point where with 30 events, the distribution approaches a normal distribution.

  21. Probability Distributions • A. Uses • B. Probability • C. Discrete Probability Distributions • – for discrete or categorical variables • 1. Binomial Distribution: for variables with two mutually exclusive and discrete values (“p” and “q”): gametes A or a, sex male or female, heads or tails; and the events occur repeatedly “k” times. • The number of combinations increases with k…. To the point where with 30 events, the distribution approaches a normal distribution. • Many multiple outcomes can reduced to a binomial… roll a dice… reduce prob to ‘1’ or ‘not 1’.

  22. Utility: Testing sex ratio in litters of multiple offspring: These become expected values for frequency distribution tests; it tells us what to expect due to chance.

  23. Probability Distributions • A. Uses • B. Probability • C. Discrete Probability Distributions • – for discrete or categorical variables • 1. Binomial Distribution: • 2. Poisson Distribution: The Poisson distribution predicts the distribution of rare, INDEPENDENT events, usually across time or space. If the real distribution deviates from the Poisson, then the events are probably NOT INDEPENDENT. • “RARE” in the sense that N is less than what COULD occur.

  24. Utility: RARE, in the sense that a m2 quadrat could contain MANY MORE than just 5 seeds.

  25. Formula: p(x) = Xxe-x x! Formula: p(1) = 1.411e-1.41 = 0.344 1!

  26. Probability Distributions • A. Uses • B. Probability • C. Discrete Probability Distributions • – for discrete or categorical variables • 1. Binomial Distribution: • 2. Poisson Distribution: • D. Normal Distribution • - often approximated by continuous variables

  27. Probability Distributions • D. Normal Distribution • - often approximated by continuous variables • 1. Properties: • - defined by the mean and s.d. • - centered on mean; symmetrical • - spread defined by s.d.: • - 68.26% of the values are within 1 s.d. of the mean • - 95.46% of the values are within 2 s.d. of the mean • - 99.93% of the values are within 3 s.d. of the mean

  28. Probability Distributions • D. Normal Distribution • - often approximated by continuous variables • 1. Properties: • 2. The Z score: • - In a large, normally distributed population, 95% of the population is within 1.96 standard deviations of the mean. • - we can determine how many deviational units separate a point from the mean with this equation: • z = (x – X)/sd • - the smaller the sample size, the more deviational units we must include to be sure to include 95% of the points.

  29. Probability Distributions • D. Normal Distribution • - often approximated by continuous variables • 1. Properties: • 2. The Z score: • 3. Normal Approximation of the Binomial: • - in a reasonably large sample (N > 30), where neither p or q is close • to 1, the binomial has a reasonably normal distribution. • how large? K x p and k x q are both greater than 5 • mean approximated by = kp • sd approximated by = kpq

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