Out-Of-Compliance Grocery UES Measure Recommendations

1. Out-Of-Compliance Grocery UES Measure Recommendations Regional Technical Forum July 15, 2014

2. Presentation Outline • Background • Measure Overview • Staff Highlighted Areas • UES Workbook • Measure Descriptions • Measure Analysis and Input Details • Savings, Cost, and Cost Effectiveness • RTF Staff Recommendation • Proposed Decision

3. Background • Multiple Grocery measures found Out-of-Compliance • Subsequent analysis determined remaining potential small • Extended sunset date at November 2013 meeting • Staff to develop plan to bring back into compliance • Grocery measures in question: • ECMs for Walk-ins – Done • Walk-in Evaporator Fan ECMotor Controllers – Done • Compressor Head Fan Motor Retrofit to ECM – Done • Display Case LEDs (Open Cases) - Done • Floating Head Pressure Controls for Single Compressor Systems - Done • Door Gasket Replacement - Done • Auto Door Closers • Strip Curtains

4. Background – Remaining Potential Note: Remaining potential based on PNW territory only.

5. What hasn’t been done • Estimating measure interactions very limited • Only looked at HVAC interaction within measure • Possible to have interactions among measures

6. RTF direction to take • Last time RTF agreed with staff recommendation to ignore interactions for these small saver grocery measures • Staff estimate is that interactions are likely small and do not warrant further research • Furthermore, estimation methods of measures are varied and it may not be practical to reliably determine interactions

7. Door Auto Closer on walk-ins and reach-ins

8. Measure Overview • What does it do? • Installs a new Door Auto Closer on existing walk-in or reach-in case that either has one that is broken or does not have one at all • Savings occur from: • Runtime reduction on refrigeration system • Load reduction on store HVAC heating system • Assuming grocery stores heat most of the year

9. Recommendation Memo Items

10. Staff Highlighted Areas • Unintentional door open time • Based on professional judgment only • Savings vary by orders of magnitude within the range of reasonable assumptions

11. Unintentional Door Open Time • Value is meant to represent time door is left unintentionally open (i.e. almost closed) • Not the same as door open/close times for accessing product • Gasket study open times as a reality test

12. Unintentional Door Open Time • But savings are directly proportional to this estimate, with no data to support it

13. Savings, Cost, & Cost Effectiveness • Go to the following sections in the Presentation tab in the proposed measure workbook: • Measure savings • Measure costs • Measure TRC B/C ratios

14. RTF Staff Recommendation • Deactivate measure due to high uncertainty in Doorway Open Time Factor and resulting high uncertainty in savings. • Set the measure status to “Deactivated”

15. Proposed Decision “I _______________ move that the RTF set the measure status of the ‘Door Auto Closer’ measure to ‘Deactivated.’”

16. Strip Curtains on Walk-ins

17. Measure Overview • What does it do? • Installs a strip curtain on a walk-in freezer or cooler where none existed before (so my picture was a little misleading) • Savings occur from: • Load reduction of refrigeration system • Load reduction on store HVAC heating system • Assuming grocery stores heat most of the year

18. Recommendation Memo Items

19. Staff Highlighted Areas • Temperature of Surroundings Parameter • Some walk-ins open to unconditioned spaces • No adjustment for PNW compared to CA • Strip Curtain Takeback • Do door open times increase after strip curtains are installed? • Results are only moderately sensitive to this effect. • Strip Curtain EUL • CA program evaluation found that measure was typically replaced well before commonly assumed lifetime.

20. Temperature of Surroundings • Used to determine infiltration air temp • A small swing of infiltration temp produces a large swing in savings • Savings increase as infiltration temp increases • ADM study results use storage area temps in respective establishments • These include some indoor and unconditioned zones • No easy way to access ADM data on climate zone weightings to discern % of outdoor/indoor walk-ins used • Recommend limiting measure eligibility to walk-ins that open to conditioned spaces only • Likely that storage areas/grocery stores same in PNW and CA • Walk-ins that open to outdoor spaces have higher infiltration air temps; savings potential may be much larger

21. Strip Curtain Takeback • Door open time is a primary determinant • Some data on pre-install door open time • No statistical data on the ratio of post- to pre-install door open times • Some anecdotal evidence does suggest significant takeback can occur (i.e. post/pre ratio > 1) • Results only vary by a factor of 2 across a wide range of assumptions (from post/pre ratio of 0.25 to 3).

22. Example of Pre- and Post- Door Open Times

23. Example of Pre- and Post- Door Open Times December 2007 BPA M&V presentation

24. Strip Curtain Takeback • Effect of varying post-install times on savings.

25. Strip Curtain Takeback • Recommend incorporating some level of takeback in estimate to • reflect anecdotal evidence • place savings in the middle of the range of reasonable estimates • Staff using a ratio of 2:1 for post-pre door open times • No significant data on this estimate • Up to RTF professional judgment

26. Strip Curtain Lifetime • Typical EUL is four years. • However, CA impact evaluation found that program-installed strip curtains were typically maintained more frequently. These findings suggest a mean time to replacement of 2 to 3 years. Source: Commercial Facilities Contract Group 2006-2008 Direct Impact Evaluation Study ID: PUC0016.03 Volume 3 of 3 HIM Appendices

27. Savings, Cost, & Cost Effectiveness • Go to the following sections in the Presentation tab in the proposed measure workbook: • Measure savings • Measure costs • Measure TRC B/C ratios

28. RTF Staff Recommendation • Limit eligibility of measure to walk-ins that open to conditioned spaces only • Assume a level of takeback that results in savings in the middle of the range of possible savings. • Staff recommends a post/pre door open time ratio of 2. • Set measure life to 2.5 years.

29. Proposed Decision “I _______________ move that the RTF: • Approve the ‘Strip Curtain’ measure as a “Small Saver” UES; • Limited to walk-ins that open to conditions spaces only • Using a post-install to pre-install door open time ratio of 2.0 • Using a measure life of 2.5 years • Set the measure status to ‘Active;’ and • Set the sunset date to July, 2019.”