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PACT - WP3 Inputs need for modelling

This document discusses the specific material consumption in goods production, characterization of material content in vehicles, buildings, and infrastructures, the necessity for consistency between total weight and materials market shares, technico-economic database for main materials production, role of retrofitting, system integration, markets modeling, recycling, time life of goods, historic databases, and the role of plastics.

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PACT - WP3 Inputs need for modelling

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  1. PACT - WP3Inputs need for modelling Grenoble, 6 Février 2006

  2. Needs of inputs for modelling – demand side (1) • Refining of the bottom-up analysis with quantitative inputs • Need for specific material consumption in goods production • Vehicles :characterization of material content in various scenarios and time horizons • types of vehicles to be considered (cars, heavy trucks, light trucks, motorcycles…)? • evolution of the weight of vehicles according to : • the scenario • the type of vehicle (multi-function vehicle vs light urban vehicle for cars) • the technology (conventional vs electric vs hybrids…) • evolution of the market shares of steel, aluminum, plastic and glass according to the scenario (in % of total weight) • necessity to ensure the consistency between total weight and materials market shares

  3. Needs for data (Vehicles)

  4. Needs of inputs for modelling – demand side (2) • Buildings :material content in various scenarios and time horizons • characterization of the buildings in function of density ; size and functions of buildings have to be designed according to the urban areas and the scenario (in coordination with WP1/WP2) • cement and steel vs glass and bio-products shares as a function of building size (e.g. in small low CO2 buildings : construction materials can switch to bio-materials) • material needs for new buildings vs material needs for renovation • demand for insulation materials? which materials? • Still necessity to ensure the consistancy between weights and material shares

  5. Needs for data (Buildings)

  6. Needs of inputs for modelling – demand side (3) • Infrastructures :Projection of the demand • Transport infrastructure : • steel in rail transport • cement for roads • Power infrastructure : Aluminum, Steel • Other material intensive products? • New needs for goods and services • ICTs • Others? • New materials (after 40 years) ?

  7. Needs of inputs for modelling – supply side • Explicit technico-economic database for main materials production, incl. prospective technologies • Steel (ULCOS, update?) • Cement (update?) • Aluminium (update?) • Role of retrofitting to accelerate the renewal of the production capacities

  8. System integration • Markets modelling (regional vs world markets) and prices of materials • Role of recycling for the various materials • Time life of goods in the society • Markets and recovery cost • Recovery rates • MIND method?

  9. Update of the historic databases • Databases of materials demand (by sector?) • Databases of capacities/production • Import/export matrix ?

  10. Role of plastics?

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