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PACT WP3 framework

PACT WP3 framework. Grenoble, December 6th 2009. Preliminary issues to resolve…. Time horizon? 2050 & beyond, what does it mean? Geographical scope? North or South? OCDE or beyond, etc.. EU or b eyond? Post-carbon society? low-CO 2 world? 450 ppm, 2°C? or carbonless world??

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PACT WP3 framework

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  1. PACTWP3 framework Grenoble, December 6th 2009

  2. Preliminary issues to resolve… • Time horizon? • 2050 & beyond, what does it mean? • Geographical scope? • North or South? OCDE or beyond, etc.. EU or b eyond? • Post-carbon society? • low-CO2 world? 450 ppm, 2°C? or carbonless world?? • a carbonless world is an utopia that has little meaning for the materials industries!!! Low-CO2 does, on the contrary!!! • Scenarios? • Do we work with scenarios? • Are they base don external, global, existing scenarios, e.g. GEO4? • How do we generate scenarios? A priori, centralized, a posteriori, consensual? • Coordination with other WP • E.g. Definition of technologies overlaps between WP2 & WP3 (us) • Where are we going? • The EU has commissioned a study, using us collectively as consultants to answer the question WHAT • The consultants "resist" and explore methods and approaches, focusing on HOW

  3. WP3 - Objectives reminder • Mainly, to provide a matrix linking desirable technologies and social services based on scenarios carried out from WP1 and WP2 (heritage not clear…). The technologies will suit the services needed in a post-carbon society. Materials intensity will be investigated as well as the way they are produced, with a focus on metals and cement (more???). • WP1 and WP2 focus respectively on: • Urbanization schemes and infrastructures for energy and transport demand • Technologies assessment (not clearly understood what thye will be doing???) and life-styles and behavior changes to achieve a post-carbon society. • The UNEP GEO4 programme should probably be a base for scenarios.

  4. WP3 – The output matrix Analysis of technologies & organizations "supply" Technologies for production of intermediary goods and manufacturing of consumer goods-services, with a vision on scale of organizations & availability of resources Analysis of social needs "demand" Qualitative storyline in each cell Mainly based on the input of WP1 & WP2 1 matrix per scenario Quantitative data for models

  5. More precisely… • Restrict detailed investigation to: • transport systems and urban planning + construction • Steel and concrete • Society needs (optimize, minimize): • Call on financial resources (costs) • Call on ecosystems' service • Mobility (people movers), logistics (thing movers) • Call on resources (raw materials, primary energy) • Some kind of social value (equity?) • Technologies • Various approaches (trend, contrasted, utopias) • To be worked out by us. Connection with WP2? We will invite them to our meetings? • Optimization? • MIND? To be worked out with MEFOS • Material intensities • System flow models, layer below MIND, to be worked out by us & MEFOS &….?

  6. WP3 – Connections with WP1 & WP2 WP1: Post carbon cities and land-use at the end of the century List of technologies * Urbanization schemes and related urban infrastructures for energy & transport in post carbon cities * WP3: Producing goods and services in post-carbon societies • Technology assessment for housing, energy and transport services of households in post-carbon society. • •Technology assessment for supply of: idem • •Quantification of material inputs for: idem • • Description of life-styles and behavioural changes to achieve a post-carbon society. SCENARIOS Focus on metals & concrete Social services WP2: Post-carbon social life and technologies

  7. WP3 – To do list • Produce a list of long term technologies by prospective, foresight, and planning tools. Here, we need expert view • Idem for expected goods and services. Experts needed too. • Build the Matrix by filling it with qualitative and quantitative information, using for example the MIND method. • Format the findings to feed the models (please explain what you need!). • We need strong feedback for the other WPs • AM to run brain storming sessions & wrap up the conclusions • MEFOS to develop broad modeling tools on the basis of existing ones for the Steel sector

  8. END

  9. Annexes (liens) WP1 Matrix boxes WP3 back

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