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Capstone: GCC Class 19: Costs & Stability

Capstone: GCC Class 19: Costs & Stability. POLS 405 Spring 2011 Fisher. Lomborg. General Findings Majority agreed with Lomborg but disagreed with his analysis (50%)prioritize 25% Agreed with Lomborg on prioritization but would still put CC near top

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Capstone: GCC Class 19: Costs & Stability

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  1. Capstone: GCCClass 19: Costs & Stability POLS 405 Spring 2011 Fisher

  2. Lomborg • General Findings • Majority agreed with Lomborg but disagreed with his analysis (50%)prioritize • 25% Agreed with Lomborg on prioritization but would still put CC near top • 15% Agreed with Lomborg on priorities and his analysis • Lomborg’s Priority list is a bit skewed (False choices??) • Basic Health Services (18) highest + Lomborg • Global energy efficiency (15) - Lomborg • Local Water Sources & Changing Energy Systems(12) + & - Lomborg • Malnutrition: Micronutrients (11) + Lomborg • New Agr methods and HIV/AIDS (6) • Anything on his list for protecting ecosystem or ecosystem services??

  3. Global Priority List from Lomborg’s Copenhagen Consesus

  4. Survey Results (General) • No significant political orientation correlation • Slight negative correlation on 2°C with temp Qs  More you agreed with 2°C, the LOWER you thought the threshold • 80% agreed with the 2°C threshold • 80% thought controlling emissions to stay between 2-4°C was a critical policy goal, with 50% at 3°C target • 500ppm was the most REASONABLE goal (55%), while 550 was thought to be the most REALISTIC objective (55%) • 60/40 split on Temperature vs. Cost as the goal of policy (12-7)

  5. Evaluating Targets: Putting it all Together ** currently at 430ppm CO2e

  6. What does it mean? • It means many in the class feel that 2°C is a worthy goal, yet even when it came to regulating emissions to get there, the class backed off • Most thought that 500ppm was reasonable, which would lead to 2.5-3°C temperature increase; • Most also thought that 550ppm CO2e was REALISTIC, which would lead to 3-3.5°C (5-6°F) • This also means that many in the class would be willing to spend 2% of global GDP to peak at 500ppm, but thought 1% of Global GDP was more realistic

  7. What should the targets be? • To stabilize at 500ppm would cost 2%GDP/yr but will reduce the possibility of global temps exceeding: • 5°C from 50% to 3%. • 4°C from 80% to 10% • 3°C from ~100% to just under 50% • Question of Where? At 550ppm would cost just over 1% Global GDP/yr, but will reduce possibility of global temps from exceeding: • 5°C from 50% to 7%. • 4°C from 80% to 25% • 3°C from ~100% to just under 70%

  8. Climate Stabilization: Views • Stern: 500ppm stabilization, while weighing risks and benefits • Cost: 2% Global GDP (for 50yrs) $1.16t (US) • Minimum: 1% GDP; otherwise risk 20times in adaptation • Lomborg: 650+ppm, prioritize our needs and climate stabilization is too expensive • Cost: .05% Global GDP $29.5b (US) • UNFCCC Process: 450ppm to meet 2°C goal • Cost: 3.25% Global GDP; $2t (US)

  9. Stabilization Wedges • Graph of next 50 yrs of global emissions of CO2, the difference between the business as usual scenario (doubling of CO2 Pre-Industrial) and the flat path forms a triangle. • This triangle is known as the stabilization triangle, which is divided into seven stabilization wedges • Each represents different measures that must be taken to reduce emissions. • If goal is to reduce emissions by 14Gt by 2060, requires 2Gt in each wedge.

  10. 15 Wedge Strategies • 1. Efficiency (4 strategies) • 2. Decarbonization of power (5 strategies) • 3. Decarbonization of fuel (4 strategies) • 4. Forest and agricultural soils (2 strategies

  11. Wedge Stabilization Approach

  12. Efficiency and Transport(all equal 1 wedge or 1gt CO2) • 1. Double vehicle fuel economy (30 to 60mpg) • 2. Cutting distance driven (per car) in half (how in US?) • 3. Energy Efficient Buildings, Appliances & lights • CFLs would represent 1/3 wedge by itself • Reduces emissions by 25% (2 wedges, but 1 assumed in BAU) • 4. Improved efficiency of Coal-fired power plants •  40% to 60% efficiency (up from 32% today) • Cutting by 50% the energy lost from fossil fuel extraction, processed and delivered

  13. Renewable Energy(all equal 1 wedge or 1gt CO2) • 5. Wind: 50 Fold Expansion in Wind Energy • Requires adding 2 million wind turbines (1mgw) up from 30k today (replacing coal). • To meet this target, wind energy would have to increase by only 8% yr (today it’s increasing by 30%/yr) • 6. Wind (H2): New market • Add 4 million turbines to generate H2 for fuel cells (but need infrastructure) • 7. Solar: 700 fold expansion of PV solar technology • Would have to expand by 14%/yr (today, it’s 30%/yr) • Cover an area size of NJ, but can be put on buildings • Drawbacks: Current high cost of PV production • 8. Biofuels: 50 fold expansion in Ethanol (displacing gasoline) • Requires size of India (far more than wind/solar)  15% more land than is currently used today for agriculture; also, undermines biodiversity and food issues • 9. Halt Deforestation (& reforestation on non-forested land) • Also, requires doubling current rate of reforestation; but runs counter to #8 biofuels • 50% of deforestation in Brazil and Indonesia (Brazil: $1b/yr in lost revenue) • 10. Conservation Tillage (all cropland) • Avoiding ploughing currently less than 10% of cropland globally • Drawbacks: Can never til. Quality of crops? Organic farming requires extensive tillage.

  14. Replacing Coal (Decarbonization)(all equal 1 wedge or 1gt CO2) • 11. Nuclear: Triple energy now generated by nuclear • Requires 700 1gw plants and maintaining those in use now • Drawbacks: waste, terrorism & proliferation • 12. Fuel Shift to Natural Gas: from coal to natural gas quadrupling use of natural gas • 13, 14, 15. Sequestration (3 wedges): capturing carbon and storing it (CCS) • 3gt by 2054, providing 3 wedges • 1 from standard coal plants • 1 from synfuel plants (which generate synthetic fuel from coal) although this actually  CO2 emissions without CCS • 1 from hydrogen plants that draw on coal  lack current infrastructure.

  15. Survey Results (top 6 wedges) • Top Wedges: Fuel efficiency and deforestation (15 each); fuel efficiency was lower mean (so more respondents ranked as top choice) • Next Top Two: Wind Power conversion (from Coal) and Building Efficiency (both 11 each) • Next Two: Driving ½ distance and Biomass Fuels (6 and 5 each) • Look at the top 6: what does this say not only about the climate solutions, but how the climate problem is being perceived? • If someone looked at those 6 wedges without any other info, would they necessarily think you were talking about the problem of CC?

  16. Adaptation • Adaptation changes the cost equation, because now you are talking about adaptation + mitigation costs. • Adaptation: Maladaptation, Can’t adapt, or high cost to adapt • To what degree is adaptation a function of underlying conditions: poverty, disease, sanitation, personal health, access to food/water? • If so, what does this say for Lomborg’s argument? • What does it say about the costs of “climate change”? • So, is the Q about priorities? Temperature stabilization? Or protecting ecosystems and people from dangerous climate change?

  17. Countering Lomborg: To Mitigate GCC or not? • All affected including US—mitigated now is a reduced cost to all? • Technology driven—technology race Lomborg just calls for more R&D, not driven by sectoral or emissions targets that fuel innovation • Collapsing ecosystems • Diminishing ecosystem services which will increase their cost (not accounted for by Lomborg) • Climate inertia and potential “Runaway global warming”—major tipping points • No looking back…can’t change your mind 20-30 later…effects are irreversible

  18. Adaptation: 2 Hurdles Adaptation: adjustments in practices, processes, or structures [which] can moderate or offset the potential for damage or take advantage of opportunities created by a given change in climate • NOTE: all adaptation is local • 2 Big Hurdles • 1. Big Hurdle funding? • Carbon tax (universal or left up to countries) • Per capita or based on country • Other taxes? Incentives to give? • Part of larger development fund or separate • 2ndBig Hurdle: Who gets funding for adaptation? • How is determined? • Vulnerability (pre-CC—so HDI), vulnerability to CC, and capacity (to adapt)

  19. Cancun Agreement • Based on target of 2°C • To meet the level demanded by the science of a 25-40% reduction of emissions below 1990 levels by 2020, and an 80-95% reduction by 2050. • No hard targets for developed countries, but better monitoring; developing countries have to divert from BAU • Adaptation Framework (and Committee), with $30b guaranteed between 2010 and 2012, with $100b guaranteed by 2030.

  20. Vids • Pawlyn Part 2 • Pawlyn Part 3 • Pawlyn Debates Lomborg Part 2 • Part 3 • Lomborg on Panel debate (Munk Debate) Dec 2009 (Stern Report) • Lomborg’s final argument (Munk Debate) (4m)

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