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National Association of State Workforce Agencies October 30, 2001

National Association of State Workforce Agencies October 30, 2001. Mike Horrigan National Developments in the LMI System, BLS Style 1:35 - 2:15 pm. Presentation. OOSEP OES issues Projections issues Conversion to NAICS BLS response to September 11, 2001 Commissioner Abraham’s departure

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National Association of State Workforce Agencies October 30, 2001

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  1. National Association of State Workforce AgenciesOctober 30, 2001 Mike Horrigan National Developments in the LMI System, BLS Style 1:35 - 2:15 pm

  2. Presentation • OOSEP • OES issues • Projections issues • Conversion to NAICS • BLS response to September 11, 2001 • Commissioner Abraham’s departure • FY 2002 budget • The American Time Use Survey (time permitting)

  3. Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections (OOSEP) • Assistant Commissioner Michael Horrigan • Projections • Division of Industry Employment Projections • Division of Occupational Outlook • Occupational Employment Statistics • Division of Occupational Employment Statistics

  4. Occupational staffing patterns are a critical input to the projections process • Projections process • Output projections • Employment by industry • Staffing patterns by industry • Occupational employment projections

  5. Occupational staffing patterns are a critical input to the projections process • Staff expertise on occupational staffing patterns by industry • Knowledge of typical educational and training requirements for occupations • Expertise on emerging occupations • Contributions to periodic updates to the SOC

  6. Involvement in Federal-State activities • Workforce Investment Council • OES Policy Council • Projections Consortium • NASWA

  7. WIC projects • Joint NASWA/WIC groups • local labor market needs • marketing • Other initiatives • Labor market dynamics study • Benefits work group • LEHD project

  8. OES issues • Twice a year collection • 5 state pilot • Nov 2001, May 2002 reference periods • NAICS transition • development of survey forms for May 2002 pilot and the Nov 2002 collection • Electronic printing • eliminate generation of labels and stuffing envelopes • customized occupation lists

  9. Other OES issues: OES Policy Council • Internet Data Collection • Colorado CATI pilot • Enhancements to SPAM • Operations manual for twice a year collection • Choice of NAICS sampling strata

  10. Projections data and issues • The projections for the 2000-2010 period are due to be released on the BLS web site on December 3, 2001, with the major findings discussed in a BLS press release. • The biannual November MLR issue devoted to the projections will be released around that time.

  11. Projections data and issues • The Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH) and the Career Guide to Industries (CGI) will be released on the BLS web site on December 17, 2001. • Also, the Occupational Outlook Quarterly issue with a chartbook on the 2000-2010 is due to be released during the Dec 3 - 17 period.

  12. Projections research projects • Conversion to NAICS • Evaluation of 2000 projections • Extension of labor force projections to 2050 • Forecast tools critique and review • Analysis of the summer workforce • Characteristics of occupational entrants and leavers • Wage premium for a college degree • Occupational earnings by metropolitan areas

  13. Conversion to NAICS in BLS programs • ES-202 Covered Employment and Wages • 2001 data published in the Fall 2002 • OES Occupational Employment Statistics • Collection on NAICS basis starting in the Fall 2002

  14. Conversion to NAICS in BLS programs • (CES-790) Current Employment Statistics • January 2003 data release for State and area data, annual averages for 2003 in early 2004. • National data starting with the May 2003 data release. • (OPT) Industry Multifactor Productivity • Keyed to the CES transition schedule • (CPS) Current Population Survey • Starting with January 2003 release, annual averages with January 2004 release.

  15. BLS response to Sep 11, 2001 events • Fact sheets for CES, CPS, LAUS, and MLS in advance of next press release cycle • September Employment Situation and Commissioner’s Statement including both CPS and CES data

  16. BLS response to Sep 11, 2001 events • ES202 fact sheet • based on pre-September 11th employment (2001Q1 universe) in affected area using geographic identifiers • employment by major industry for three progressively larger areas around the World Trade Center • county code, physical location zip code (97% of employment, otherwise UI zip code • close coordination with New York State

  17. BLS response to Sep 11, 2001 events • MLS data • Perhaps the most direct measure, identifying layoff events affecting 50 or more workers as measured by filings for UI. • A reason code was added to the survey form, listing non-natural disaster as the reason for separation

  18. BLS response to Sep 11, 2001 events • MLS data • States are contacting employers on a flow basis to collect monthly updates on mass layoff events • Mass layoff events through Oct 12, Nov 9, and Dec 31

  19. BLS response to Sep 11, 2001 events • MLS data • October 26, 2001 press release on Mass Layoffs in September 2001 • 3 weeks of claims filings in the weeks ending on September 15, 22, and 29.

  20. BLS response to Sep 11, 2001 events • MLS data • In January-August 2001, 18 layoff events and 1,523 initial claimants were reported in the scheduled air transportation industry. • In September alone, there were 29 events and 6,152 initial claimants in this industry.

  21. BLS response to Sep 11, 2001 events • MLS data • In hotels and motels, 189 events and 15,653 initial claimants were registered over the January-August period. • In September, another 123 events and 20,648 claimants were attributed to this industry.

  22. Other analysis of the impact of the Sep 11, 2001 events • Oregon study • Analysis covering Oregon industries such as airplane construction, transportation as well as developing a national perspective on the slowdown in the economy and international trade • Examination of occupational staffing patterns in Oregon most likely to be affected

  23. Other analysis of the impact of the Sep 11, 2001 events • Illinois Study • Local and state wide analyses of affected industries. • Longer run trends in employment by selected industries and predicted severity of the impacts of both Sep 11 and the general economic slowdown. • Builds in alternative scenarios for employment by industry and areas.

  24. Commissioner of BLS • Katharine Abraham’s term ended on October 19, 2001 • Lois Orr has been officially designated as Acting Commissioner • Freeze on filling managerial positions has been lifted

  25. Fiscal year 2002 budget • BLS request for employment statistics programs $215,928,000 • BLS request for States 2.8% higher than FY 01 • House mark is $1 million higher than request • Senate mark equals the request • CR until November 16

  26. American Time Use Survey (ATUS) • Measures What People Do • Why? • To measure nonmarket work in the US and vis a vis other countries • To measure where and when paid work is being done • To broadly examine quality of life--e.g. time sleeping, time with children, time exercising, relaxing, etc. • Objectives • Quarterly and annual measures of time spent doing a variety of activities • Measures for average weekday, weekend day, and weekend • Data by demographics and labor force characteristics

  27. American Time Use Survey (ATUS) • Household Sample • Drawn from Current Population Survey (after completing last interview) • Stratified by various household characteristics • Race of CPS reference person • Ethnicity of CPS reference person • Number of adults • Presence of children • Age and education of CPS reference person • Designated person (DP) • One individual randomly selected from sampled households for ATUS

  28. Introduction Household Roster & Employment Status Core Time diary Future: Modules ATUS: Structure of the survey Includes non-HH own children Paid Work Child Care Missed Days Summary Questions Labor Force Updates

  29. American Time Use Survey (ATUS) • Questionnaire wording complete; software being developed • Processing and estimation methods being defined • Dress rehearsal April-June 2002 • Pre-fielding November 2002 • Begin production January 2003

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