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Developing Logic Models

Developing Logic Models. Alcohol-related Motor Vehicle Crashes. Outcomes-Based Prevention. Risk and Protective Factors/ Causal Factors. Substance-Related Consequence and Use. Programs/ Policies/ Practices. Implementing the Strategic Prevention Framework

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Developing Logic Models

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  1. Developing Logic Models Alcohol-related Motor Vehicle Crashes

  2. Outcomes-Based Prevention Risk and Protective Factors/ Causal Factors Substance-Related Consequence and Use Programs/ Policies/ Practices Implementing the Strategic Prevention Framework Planning, Monitoring, Evaluation and Replanning

  3. Example: Logic Model for Alcohol-Related MVC Risk and Protective Factors/Causal Factors Substance-Related Consequences Substance Use Strategies (Examples) Alcohol-related crash fatalities

  4. Alcohol Related Motor Vehicle Crashes United States • 42,636 people killed; 2,788,000 people injured • 39% of crash fatalities alcohol related (16,696 fatalities) • Motor vehicle crashes are leading cause of death for ages 3-33 years Source: FARS, 2004

  5. Ex: Logic Model for Alcohol-Related MVC, All Age Drinking and Driving Binge Drinking Substance-Related Consequences Substance Use Alcohol-related crash fatalities Seatbelts (55% deaths; no seatbelt Speeding 40% drivers in fatal crashes with BAC>.08 speeding

  6. Drinking and Driving in the U.S. Source: NHSDUH, 2004

  7. Characteristics of Drinking Drivers in Fatal Crashes, U.S. Source: FARS, 2003

  8. Drinking patterns among U.S. Adults 12 and over (past 30 day use), 2002 Source: NHSDA

  9. Characteristics of Drinking Drivers in Fatal Crashes • Binge drinkers are over-represented in fatal crashes • Self-reported non-bingers are at lower risk but still contribute to a significant number of fatal crashes (in part due to large number)

  10. Ex: Logic Model for Alcohol-Related MVC, All Age Risk and Protective Factors/Causal Factors Substance-Related Consequences Substance Use Public Awareness of DUI Enforcement DUI Enforcement Community Norms drinking/driving Perceived risk of DUI Arrest Alcohol Promotion Alcohol-related crash fatalities Drinking and Driving Binge Drinking Retail Availability Price Related risk factors: Seatbelts (55% deaths; no seatbelt) Speeding (40% drivers in fatal crashes with BAC>.08 speeding) Social Availability Enforcement Sales/Server Laws Community Norms re. binge drinking

  11. SPF SIG New Mexico Community Logic ModelReducing alcohol-related youth traffic fatalities Risk and Protective Factors/Causal Factors Substance-Related Consequences Substance Use Evidence-Based Strategies Underage BINGE DRINKING Easy RETAIL ACCESS to Alcohol for youth TBD Low ENFORCEMENT of alcohol laws Underage DRINKING AND DRIVING TBD High rate of alcohol-related crash mortality Among 15 to 24 year olds Easy SOCIAL ACCESS to Alcohol Low PERCEIVED RISK of alcohol use TBD Young Adult BINGE DRINKING SOCIAL NORMS accepting and/or encouraging youth drinking TBD Young Adult DRINKING AND DRIVING PROMOTION of alcohol use (advertising, movies, music, etc) TBD Low or discount PRICING of alcohol

  12. Outcomes-Based Logic Models • Represent complex systems of cause and effect • Encourage planners and implementers to focus on the most important and strongest paths for creating change • Must be constantly reviewed/revised to understand relationships, adapt to new circumstances, and accommodate success Adaptable for iterative assess/plan/evaluate/re-plan SPF SIG process

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