Logic Models 101

1. Logic Models 101 “SPF Forward” Conference May 31, 2012

2. Welcome Presenters: Jerry Jordan, Research Associate, University of Cincinnati Evaluation Services Center Marsha Lewis, Assistant Professor, Voinovich School of Leadership and Public Affairs at Ohio University Debbie Zorn, Senior Research Associate, Director, University of Cincinnati Evaluation Services Center

3. Ohio SPF Evaluation Team (OSET) Voinovich School of Leadership and Public Affairs at Ohio University Holly Raffle, Assistant Professor Marsha Lewis, Assistant Professor Barry Oches, Senior Research Associate Nicole Yandell, Research Associate University of Cincinnati Evaluation Services Center Debbie Zorn, Senior Research Associate, Center Director Jerry Jordan, Research Associate Katie Steedly, Research Associate

4. Learning Objectives Participants will gain experience in: • Identifying components of a community logic model • Analyzing prevention data • Developing problem statements • Developing a community logic model

5. Logic Models Can Support • Program Planning • Program Management • Communication • Consensus-Building • Fundraising

6. Community Logic Model

7. Community Logic Model • A community logic model focuses on four interrelated components: • Consequences related to substance use • Consumption patterns related to the focus substance • Intervening variables that are either risk or protective factors associated with the focus substance • Evidence-based prevention strategies

8. Consequences and Consumption Patterns in Spring Valley • Please take 10 minutes in small groups at your tables to: • Read the first part of the case study • Using the large community logic model on your table, identify consumption and consequence information. • Are there additional forms of data you might want to collect? What are we missing in terms of knowing what is happening in Spring Valley? • How could the Spring Valley data be made more complete and useful in terms of articulating where the prevention efforts might be focused? • Have all possible data sources been consulted?

9. What Does the Data Tell Us? • What is the problem? • What are the consumption patterns? • What are the consequences with respect to the focus substance? • What other data might you want to have?

10. What Is a Problem Statement? • Young adults, ages 18-25, in Middleboro, PA report consumption of alcoholic beverages at a significantly higher rate than the average for the state. • A problem statementprovides an indication of the magnitude of a particular problem with a specific target population’s substance use or perceptions regarding the substance of interest Example:

11. Effective Problem Statements: • Identify one issue or problem at a time • Articulate specific and measurable goals • Can be solved in a reasonable amount of time

12. Spring Valley Problem Statement • Please take 5 minutes in small groups at your tables toframe your thoughts about the substance use problem in Spring Valley in a problem statement that indicates the magnitude of the problem with a specific target population’s substance use or perceptions regarding the substance of interest.

13. Community Logic Model

14. Intervening Variable Definition Research based constructs that have been identified as being strongly related to and influencing the occurrence and magnitude of substance use and related risk behaviors and their subsequent consequences. These variables are the proximal focus of prevention strategies, changes in which are then expected to affect consumption and consequences. -The SPF SIG Intervening Variable Work Group

15. Intervening Variables: Risk Factors Easy Access to Alcohol for Youth Low Enforcement of Laws Low Perceived Risk of Alcohol Use Social Norms Accepting or Encouraging Drinking Promotion of Alcohol Use Low Perceived Risk for Prescription Medication Misuse Access to Prescription Medication Access to Illicit Drugs

16. Intervening Variables: Protective Factors Availability of Screening and Early Intervention Consistent Enforcement of Laws Community Attachment Anti-drug Policies Academic Competence

17. Intervening Variables in Spring Valley Please take 10 minutes in small groups at your tables to: Read the next part of the case study Identify some intervening variables from Spring Valley. Each group will report out their intervening variables and a problem statement.

18. Community Logic Model

19. Evidence-Based Prevention Strategies Are included in the Federal registries of evidence-based interventions Are reported (with positive effects on the primary targeted outcome) in peer-reviewed journals Have documented effectiveness supported by other sources of information and the consensus judgment of informed experts Are both a conceptual and practical fit for a community Address the community’s substance use problem and align with the community’s intervening variables

20. Examples of Evidence-Based Strategies • Purchase Laws • Price Controls • Restriction on Retail Sales or Sellers • Legal Deterrence • Controls on Advertising and Promotion • Measures that reduce consequence of excessive use • Substitution of less damaging products

21. The Final Step: Evidence-Based Prevention Strategies for Spring Valley Take 10 minutes in small groups and revisit the Spring Valley case. Considering the available data, the problem statement and intervening variables your group has previously decided upon, select two possible strategies to address your problem. Justify your strategy selection using the available Spring Valley data. You have now developed each element of acommunity logic model. Be prepared to share your group’s logic model.

22. Thank YOU