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Constraints and Opportunities for Agricultural Development in Sub-Saharan Africa

Constraints and Opportunities for Agricultural Development in Sub-Saharan Africa. Sam Goff Friday, May 4. Agenda. The role of agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) Challenges and opportunities for growth Success stories International community’s role in agricultural development

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Constraints and Opportunities for Agricultural Development in Sub-Saharan Africa

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  1. Constraints and Opportunities for Agricultural Development in Sub-Saharan Africa Sam Goff Friday, May 4

  2. Agenda • The role of agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) • Challenges and opportunities for growth • Success stories • International community’s role in agricultural development • Agricultural development in the classroom

  3. I. The role of agriculture in Africa • The primary source of livelihood for 65% of Africans • 70-80% of all Africans- and 90% of the poor- work primarily in agriculture • 30-40% of Africa’s GDP; 60% of Africa’s export income • Over last 40 years, Africa’s share of world agricultural exports has fallen from 8 to 2%

  4. The importance of agriculture • Farm production largely determines the prices of basic foodstuffs • The poor spend 60-70% of income on food • 75% of Africa’s underweight children live on small farms

  5. Food security • Food security in Africa has worsened since 1970 • The percentage of malnourished has remained in the range of 33-35% since 1970 • But due to population growth, the absolute number has increased • 1970: 88 million; 2001: over 200 million food insecure persons

  6. Food security in comparison to other regions

  7. The centrality of agriculture for economic growth in Africa • Agricultural development must be centered on the small farmer • Improving the agricultural sector is key to solving the problems of hunger and poverty

  8. II. Challenges and Opportunities for Growth • Limited access to developed country markets • Poverty • Poor infrastructure • Limited irrigation • HIV/AIDS • Soil infertility • Low agricultural research investment • Lack of sound governance • Difficulties with market liberalization

  9. Limited access to developed country markets • US, Canada, Europe, and Japan: domestic subsidies, protective tariffs, and other trade barriers harm farmers in Africa and other poor developing countries • In developed economies, consumers favor the artificially cheaper products produced by developed countries • In developing countries, subsidized imported products also displace the locally produced products from developing countries

  10. Limited access to developed country markets • US Farm Bill subsidies equal $15-20 b per year, more than the value of Africa’s total annual agricultural exports • Without rich country subsidies and tariffs, the current $11 billion food-related exports annually from SSA could grow to $22 billion • Reform of developed-country agricultural protectionism may increase market opportunities for African smallholders • The Doha Round of trade liberalization is currently stalled

  11. Regional trade liberalization • Greater intra- and inter-regional trade liberalization is needed • By reducing trade barriers in agricultural and nonagricultural sectors, African countries can increase intra-regional agricultural trade by more than 50%

  12. Poverty and infrastructure • 80% of all Africans live on a daily income of less than $2; nearly half live on $1 or less a day • Infrastructure is one of the key inputs to agricultural development in Africa • Inadequate physical infrastructure increases costs by 15-25% • Much of poor trade performance is accounted for by poor physical infrastructure

  13. Limited irrigation • Only 1.15% of Africa’s 1.1 billion ha of agricultural area was irrigated in 2000 • 96% of cereal area relies on rainfall • Average irrigation cost in SSA is $46,000/ac; • Average irrigation cost in US is $50/ac. • High due to limited physical infrastructure

  14. HIV/AIDS in SSA • SSA: 2/3 of world’s infection but only 1/10 of the world’s population; 1/13 adults carry the virus • Great variation across regions • Several West African nations have prevalence rates <1% • In Southern Africa the virus has taken hold • More than 1/5 of adult pop. in Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe • In 2004, 1/3 of global deaths from AIDS took place in Southern Africa • Life expectancy in SSA in 1992: 57 yrs.; in 2003, 40 yrs.

  15. HIV/AIDS: Impacts on livelihoods • HIV/AIDS attacks primarily young adults; society’s most productive members • Households less able to produce or buy food • Coping strategies: borrowing and sales of assets • Family members stop work to care for those who are ill; children drop out of school • Intergenerational impacts

  16. HIV/AIDS and gender • Women are increasingly vulnerable • Globally, girls and women account for ½ • In SSA, ¾ of those living with HIV are females between ages of 15 and 24 • Women in SSA provide 70-80% of household food production • Food production can be reduced by 60% in HIV-infected households when women’s time and energy are diverted to care for family members infected by HIV

  17. Interventions for HIV/AIDS mitigation: Investments in Women • 9/10 HIV+ people do not know they are infected and lack comprehensive knowledge of HIV transmission • Education of women linked to lowering fertility rates, raising productivity, and improving environmental management • IFPRI study: Farms run by women have lower yields than those run by men; when women receive same levels of education, experience, and farm inputs as men, productivity is comparable • When mothers’ education levels raised to at least the completion of primary school, household poverty was reduced by 34%

  18. Soil Infertility • SSA soil quality is classified as degraded on 72% of arable land and 31% of pastureland • Causes • Nutrient mining, • Declining use and length of fallow periods, • Expansion of agricultural production on marginal lands • Limited adoption of • Inorganic or organic fertilizer, • Soil and water conservation measures

  19. Approaches to mitigate soil infertility • Organic farming • High external input sustainable agriculture • Low external input sustainable agriculture • Integrated soil fertility management • A pragmatic approach is needed

  20. Are fertilizer subsidies the answer? • May be appropriate to subsidize fertilizers in the short run in some countries • BUT must be supplemented by government investments in infrastructure, institutions, and policies that permanently reduce farm level prices

  21. Low agricultural research investment • From 1976-1996, public agricultural investment was 1/3 the rate of other developing countries as a whole • Private sector accounted for only 2% of total agricultural research spending (US: 50%) • Agricultural biotechnology (GMOs) holds high potential • In 2003, NEPAD adopted the Comprehensive Africa Agricultural Development Programme (CAADP) • At least 10% of national budgets toward agricultural development

  22. III. Success Stories: Southern Africa • South African supermarket chains are beginning to buy produce from African countries rather than importing it from overseas • South Africa: smallholders adopting Bt cotton • Zambia: from ‘95-’02, cotton production has increased 5x • Zambia and Malawi, smallholders have doubled cash returns from improved varieties of cassava • Mozambique: in last decade, agricultural growth has remained steady at 9-13% annually

  23. Success Stories: West Africa • Cross-breeding high-yielding Asian rice varieties with drought- and disease-resistant African varieties resulted in New Rice for Africa (NERICA) • West Africa could save $88 million in rice imports • Increased intraregional trade and diversification through ECOWAS • 75 nontraditional agricultural products exported

  24. Success Stories: East Africa • Ugandan gov’t initiatives under the Plan for the Modernization of Agriculture: distributing tea plantlets to households, cotton seeds to ginners, stocking lakes with fish • COMESA: Free-trade area • Kenya: In 2003, smallholders produced about $46 m of the $147 income from horticultural exports • Kenya: Smallholders produce 80% of country’s milk

  25. IV. International community’s role • Although overall international assistance to Africa has increased, assistance to African agriculture has fallen

  26. Sustaining International Support for Agricultural Development • Africa’s agricultural sector needs greater access to international markets • US’ AGOA: less than 10% are agricultural products

  27. V. Agricultural development in the classroom • The Green Revolution • http://www.fao.org/es/ess/faostat/foodsecurity/FSMap/flash_map.htm • Increase students’ awareness of global poverty • Miniature Earth: If the world’s population were reduced to 100 people, what would it look like? (http://www.miniature-earth.com/) • You prepare the next generation of scientists, educators, economists, and others who have the potential to change our world

  28. References • Resnick, D. (2004). Smallholder African Agriculture: Progress and Problems in Confronting Hunger and Poverty. Washington: International Food Policy Research Institute.*** • Rosegrant, M. (2005). Looking Ahead: Long-term Prospects for Africa’s Agricultural Development and Food Security. Washington: International Food Policy Research Institute.*** • Haggblade, S. (2004). Building on Successes in African Agriculture. Washington: International Food Policy Research Institute.*** • Gollehan, N. Irrigation Resources and Water Costs. http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/arei/eib16/eib16_2-1.pdf ***extensive verbatim reproduction

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