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Delaware River Basin SPARROW Model

Delaware River Basin SPARROW Model

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Delaware River Basin SPARROW Model

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  1. Delaware River Basin SPARROW Model US Geological Survey Delaware NAWQA Mary Chepiga 609-771-3955 mchepiga@usgs.govSusan Colarullo 609-771-3922 colarull@usgs.govJeff Fischer 609-771-3953 fischer@usgs.gov

  2. Today’s Talk • The SPARROW model technique • Delaware River Basin SPARROW results for Total Nitrogen (TN) and Total Phosphorus (TP) for 2000 • SPARROW and water-quality monitoring

  3. SPARROW*Model Concept *SPAtiallyReferencedRegressionOn Watershed Attributes

  4. SPARROW relates measured loads at monitoring stations to stream and land attributes Stream Network Landscape Features Sources Monitoring Data

  5. Model predictions are made for every reach • (not just monitored reaches) • Load, yield, concentration • Contribution from each source • In-stream and reservoir losses • Incremental and delivered loads for stream reaches, basins and sub-basins • Statistical measures of uncertainty for predictors and predictions Reach basin Stream reach

  6. Monitored/Calculated Loads

  7. Kg/Km2 >2000 >700 and <2000 < 700 Major Stream 2000 Total Nitrogen Yields • 97 sites • 50% are less than 700 kg/km2 • 10 % are greater than 2,000 kg/km2

  8. Kg/Km2 >75 >25 and <75 < 25 Major Stream TP Loads 2000 Total Phosphorus Yields • Map here • 110 sites • 50% are less than 25 kg/km2 • 10 % are greater than 75 kg/km2

  9. Total Nitrogen Total Phosphorus Sources Population Fertilizer applied to agricultural land Animal waste Diffuse (urban, non-agricultural)* Stream size* Reservoir size Atmospheric deposition Population Fertilizer applied to agricultural land Animal waste Diffuse (forest, urban, non-agricultural)* Water-holding capacity Precipitation Stream size Reservoir size Land-to-Water Delivery In-Stream Transport

  10. Delaware River Basin SPARROW Model Results

  11. DRB SPPARROW Results for entire basin Total Nitrogen (TN) 57.8 million kg Total Phosphorus (TP) 4.0 million kg Diffuse* 0.6 kg Atmospheric Deposition 14.5 kg Diffuse 0.3 kg Waste 18.4 kg Population 2.5 kg Waste 0.7 kg Fertilizer 0.5 kg Population 11.6 kg Fertilizer 12.7 kg

  12. Total Nitrogen2000Total Loads Total Nitrogen load, in kilograms per year < 1,000 1,000 - 5,000 5,001 – 50,000 50,001 – 500,000 > 500,000

  13. Total Nitrogen2000Incremental Loads Total Nitrogen Incremental Load, in kilograms per year < 200 201 - 500 500 – 1,000 1,000 – 10,000 > 10,000

  14. Total Nitrogen2000Incremental Yields Total Nitrogen Incremental Yield in kg per km2 per year < 1,000 1,000 – 2,000 2,001 – 4,000 4,001 – 6,000 > 6,000

  15. TN Major Sources Atmospheric Deposition Population Fertilizer Waste Diffuse TP Major Sources

  16. Total Nitrogen by Source and Basin

  17. Total Nitrogen Delivered to Estuary (39 Mkg)

  18. Nitrogen Incremental Yieldby Source and AMNET Basin IMPAIRMENT NONE MODERATE SEVERE

  19. SPARROW and Water-Quality Monitoring

  20. SPARROW TN Errors Error Evaluation • Model explains ~90 to 95% of spatial variability in loads • Prediction errors for stream reaches are typically +/- 5 to 60% of load • Generally half of the independent variables are non-significant Lowest Highest

  21. Delaware River Basin SPARROW Model Points of Contact Mary Chepiga 609-771-3955 mchepiga@usgs.govSusan Colarullo 609-771-3922 colarull@usgs.govJeff Fischer 609-771-3953 fischer@usgs.gov US Geological Survey Delaware NAWQA

  22. SPARROW Budget Equation Load Land-to-water delivery Error Sources Instream decay • Spatial non-linear regression • Adjusts land and stream delivery factors on • the basis of basin-wide statistical relationships • Minimizes errors at monitoring sites

  23. Total Phosphorus2000Total Loads Total Phosphorus Load, in kilograms per year < 1,000 1,000 - 10,000 10,001 – 20,000 20,001 – 400,000 > 400,000

  24. Total Phosphorus2000Incremental Loads Total Phosphorus Incremental Load, in kilograms per year < 50 51 - 500 501 – 1,000 1,001 – 10,000 > 10,000

  25. TP Total Loads TP Incremental Loads

  26. Total Phosphorus2000Incremental Yields Total Phosphorus Incremental Yield, in kg per km2 per year < 0.5 0.6 - 2.0 2.1 – 4.0 4.1 – 10 > 10

  27. Data Sources

  28. Data Sources (cont’d)