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Improving prediction methods to estimate power curtailment. Saki Kinney Professor Eric Suess Department of Statistics, CSUH CSU Annual Student Research Competition May 3-4, 2002. Background: Curtailment Programs. Energy demand management has long been of interest Maintain power reliability

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## Improving prediction methods to estimate power curtailment

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**Improving prediction methods to estimate power curtailment**Saki Kinney Professor Eric Suess Department of Statistics, CSUH CSU Annual Student Research CompetitionMay 3-4, 2002**Background: Curtailment Programs**• Energy demand management has long been of interest • Maintain power reliability • Reduce costs • Programs provide incentive to reduce power when electricity is in peak demand • 2001: “Use your appliances after 7pm”**Measuring Demand Reduction**• Key component of incentive program is to determine participant performance • Requires estimating what power would have been if a curtailment order had not been issued • Curtailment = Predicted Power- Actual Power • Typically averaging methods are used**Average Method**Prediction = Average of the same hour over the previous ten business days 789 kW Curtailment**Average Method**• Turns out to be a poor prediction method • Does not account for variables affecting power consumption • Time (past consumption) • Temperature**Temperature Variation**• Curtailments typically called for on hottest days • New participants complained this put them at a disadvantage • Performance measured against cooler days • Past participants typically were not concerned with temperature variability.**Analysis Overview**• Compare overall prediction accuracy for different models to ISO average method • “Goodness of fit” • Compare curtailment estimates during actual power emergency**Other Prediction Models**• RegressionModel • Power vs. Temperature • AutoregressionModel • Predict from previousvalues**Regression Method**• Prediction = a + b*Temperature • Use previous ten days power and temperature data to get model for each hour 1534 kW Curtailment**Autoregression Method**• Past power usage used to predict future power usage • Use several days data, including current day, up to curtailment time • Temperature variation is implicit • Temperature data not required • Time correlation is accounted for**Autoregression Method**1032 kW Curtailment**Which Model is Better?**• Regression and Autoregression models appear better than the Average model • Comparable to each other • Not conclusive – small sample size**Summer 2001 Results**• July 3rd Power Emergency • Illustrate difference in curtailment estimates using different models • Example: Results from two Federal Buildings that participated in ISO program (Source: US GSA, LBNL)**Impact on Performance**• A higher baseline leads to higher performance estimate • Performance= Estimated Curtailment Promised Curtailment • Averaging model tends to understate actual performance**Further Considerations**• Analyze data from different types of buildings in different climate zones • Consider model variations • Evaluate models used by other states and programs**Conclusions**• Better predictive models are needed in demand reduction programs • Fairness • Reliability • Decision making and planning • Accounting for temperature variability and time dependence provides more accurate results**Acknowledgments**Cal State HaywardStatistics Department Lawrence Berkeley LabEnvironmental Energy Technologies Division

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