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MEPAG FEBRUARY 2008

MEPAG FEBRUARY 2008

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MEPAG FEBRUARY 2008

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  1. MEPAGFEBRUARY 2008 Alan Stern Associate Administrator/SMD

  2. SMD’s Science Program Leads The World • $4.441B/yr budget. • Large Earth science, heliophysics, planetary science, & astrophysics programs. • 53 flight missions in operation. • 41 flight missions in development. • 3000+ operating R&A grants. • These numbers exceed the combined efforts of all other Earth & space science programs of the World.

  3. SMD Major Activities: Next 12 months

  4. But SMD’s Science Over-Runs Are Debilitating COST OVERRUNS AND UNEXPECTED MISSION EXPENDITURES

  5. PRESENTATION OVERVIEW • FY09 SMD Budget Overview • Recent MEP History • Mars Next Decade • MSL Issues • Thought Questions

  6. FY09 PRESIDENT’S BUDGET: OVERVIEW

  7. We will get more science done within our budget. We will help ensure that U.S. Space Exploration Policy succeeds. We will promote U.S. leadership across all of SMD’s science disciplines. We will improve SMD’s actual and its perceived impact on, and relevance to, the public. We will create a better workplace. SMD MANAGEMENT OBJECTIVES

  8. SMD’S CROSS-CUTTING FY09 BUDGET OBJECTIVES • Accelerate the Earth Science Decadal Survey mission queue. • Increase space science R&A/MO&DA to get better value from our flight missions. • Increase the number of planned missions in all four of SMD’s science theme areas. • Support NRC Decadal Survey priorities. • Initiate an SMD lunar robotic science program. • Increase space science suborbital research programs to foster PI on-ramps, technology demonstration, and accomplish more science.

  9. NASA AND SMD PRESIDENT’S BUDGET: FY09-FY13

  10. SMD BUDGET BY SCIENCE THEME

  11. MAJOR FY09 BUDGET INITIATIVES • Increased commitment to Earth Science over 5 years. • Initiated seven new FY09 mission starts: more than in the past four budgets combined; at least one per SMD science area: • Earth Science: SMAP and IceSat II (2012, 2015 launches) • Astrophysics: JDEM (launch in 2014/2015) • Heliophysics: Solar Probe Plus (launch in 2015) • Planetary: Outer Planets Flagship (launch by 2017) small lunar science orbiter (launch by 2011), and lunar mini-landers (launch by 2014). • Substantial increases in astrophysics, heliophysics, and planetary science R&A/MO&DA. • Increased budgets for suborbital rockets and balloons. Baseline Plan

  12. SMD PLANETARY DIVISION’S CENTRAL ORGANIZING THEME THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOLAR SYSTEM

  13. SELECTED FY09 BUDGET HIGHLIGHTS: PLANETARY • Fund a new start for the outer planets flagship mission (LRD 2016/2017); fund Cassini through 2011. • Initiate a new lunar robotic science flight mission line, with first launch (LADEE small orbiter) by 2011, second launch (two ILN landers) by 2014. • Continue all existing Mars missions; launches in 2009, 2013, 2016; also fund US ExoMars participation for 2013 launch; initiate sample return studies leading to 2018 and 2020 MSR missions; augment Mars DA and R&A (58% FY08, 7% FY09, 11% by FY10). • Fully fund Juno (2011 launch) and New Frontiers 3 (2016 launch), as well as GRAIL (launch by 2011) and the next Discovery launch in 2014. • Augment general planetary R&A 29% in FY09. Baseline Plan

  14. SMD’S FLIGHT PROGRAM: JANUARY 2007

  15. SMD’S FLIGHT PROGRAM: JANUARY 2008

  16. NEWLY STARTED MISSIONS New Starts Defined as a Phase A Start Year or Final Downselect Year— Whichever is Later.

  17. FY09 MARS PROGRAM PLAN

  18. MSR

  19. PLANETARY BUDGET CHANGES

  20. PLANETARY DIVSISION BUDGET SPLITS

  21. MARS BUDGET HISTORY

  22. MARS PROGRAM CONTENT • Existing Flight Missions (5) • Mars Odyssey • Mars Recon Orbiter • MER-Spirit • MER-Opportunity • Phoenix • Missions in Development (3) • MSL Flagship ($1830M) • Mars Scout 2 ($475M) • ExoMarsx2 ($61M) • Additional Missions Funded in FY09 Budget (2) • Mars 2016 Ramp Up ($220M) • Mars Sample Return ($68M: studies & tech)

  23. COMPARE TO ALL OTHER PLANETARY CONTENT • Existing Flight Missions (4) • Cassini • New Horizons • MESSENGER • Dawn • Missions in Development (2) • Outer Planets Flagship • LADEE Lunar Micro-Orbiter • Additional Missions Funded in FY09 Budget (3) • Discovery 2014 • Lunar micro-landers 2014 • New Frontiers 2016

  24. PLANETARY BUDGET RUNNOUT TO 2020 2.4%/yr SMD Growth Line

  25. RECENT MEP BUDGET HISTORY

  26. MEP ’07-08 BUDGET EVENTS • Jan: PHX $25M Build Cost Increase. • June: MSL Sample Caching, $2M Added. • May: MEP Next Decade MSR Re-Focus. • Aug: Phoenix launch. • Sep: Phoenix $5M Mission Ops Increase. • Sep: MSL $62M Re-baseline. • Sep: Funded New MER Extensions Thru FY08 ($10M) With Commitment for FY09 ($10M) If Still Operating. • Feb: FY09 Budget Request Released. R&A Increased. No Mars Cancellations.

  27. MARS NEXT DECADE

  28. MARS PROGRAM PLAN

  29. Launch Year 2020 MSR Element #1 MSR Element #2 TBD mission based on budget and science feed-forward Sample Receiving Facility online by 2022 Mars Program - Next Decade

  30. MSL

  31. MSL COST GROWTH HISTORY • August 2006: MSL Confirmed at a development (C/D) cost of $972M. • Program added $32M to increase reserves to 35% (~60% on the S-Curve). • Late ’06/early ’07: ~$20M in descopes were taken to control cost growth: • TLS, Corer, Sample Crusher, CheMin dual X-ray source, EDL latitude performance. • June ’07: MSL descopes and cash of $62M. Sources of growth included: • Instruments; SAM, CheMin, ChemCam, Malin Space Science Systems cameras. • Mechanical Design of Rover body, Corer/drill, Sample Acquisition/Sample Processing and Handling • Actuator Design • Thermal Protection System testing • Parts Procurements • Fabrication Services/Labor • Jan ’08:MSL estimated need for $165M-$200M cash. Sources of growth include: • Actuators, Thermal Protection System testing • Parts, Subsystems, Testing • Fabrication Services/Labor

  32. MSL GROWTH BY SUBSYSTEM Largest contributors to growth NOTE: See also Aerospace Corp EVM Charts in b/u at WBS levels 3/4

  33. MSL Development Flow Compression Radar Flt. Heatshield As of June 2007 CDR Descent Stage Flt. Avionics Drill ATLO KSC Deliveries Drill Descent Stage Flt. Heatshield Flt. Avionics Radar Possible delays but flexibility available As of Jan. 2008 EAC increased > $200M Since June 2007 ATLO ATLO w/EMs KSC Deliveries Ship May 2009 Launch Sept. 2009 CDR June 2007 March 2008 July 2008 Jan. 2009

  34. Original content marked “SBU”; deleted for publication Sensitive But Unclassified (SBU)

  35. MSL PROJECT BUDGET GROWTH HISTORY Current JPL Projected 12/07/07 Blue line $1699M corresponds to the 70% on SRB’s S-curve development cost predicted at confirmation

  36. SOME THOUGHT QUESTIONS

  37. What does a balanced planetary program look like? • What should we fly for MEP 2016? • What Mars efforts could be proposed to Discovery and New Frontiers? • What Mars-Moon flight program synergies exist? • Is MSR the right central organizing theme? • Is there a serious science loss if MSL arrival • slips?

  38. BACKUP

  39. LUNAR ROBOTIC SCIENCE MISSION INITIATIVE FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 Lunar Research and Analysis Mission of Opportunity Science-Funding-Opportunity Driven LADEE Launch Goal Mini Lander Launch Goal ILN Operation Start Goal Possible Intl. Partner Early Operations ESMD SMD C/D E E+ LRO SMD-Discovery Mission E Cruise B C & D GRAIL Science Definition SDT E Cruise A B C & D SMD-Full Moon Missions LADEE Science Definition SDT B/C/D duration finalized during A E Node I & II Operations A B TBD during Phase A Mini Lander Launch date to be set during Phase A 020308

  40. PLANETARY PROGRAM BUDGET CONTENT

  41. FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 Mars Exploration 634.9 553.5 386.5 299.6 344.5 341.1 413.8 -- 416.8 305.5 223.3 69.0 54.6 37.6 2009 Mars Science Lab 5.3 57.7 6.7 68.5 152.5 170.7 121.8 Mars Scout (2013) 14.2 27.4 24.9 25.9 26.7 27.1 27.5 Mars Research and Analysis Operating Missions and Data Analysis 171.8 149.4 131.6 136.2 110.7 105.7 264.5 { -- -- -- 10.0 20.2 31.0 160.2 Mars-16 -- -- -- -- -- Mars Sample Return 5.0 35.0 3.0 6.0 5.0 13.0 23.0 18.0 6.0 ExoMars 13.7 9.2 Mars Technology Program 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0