Overview of Presentation

1. Climate Change and its Challenges for Agriculture and Food Security by Dyborn Chibonga, NASFAM CEO Presentation at ACP-EU Follow-up Committee meeting to be held on January 25-26, 2016 at the EESC in Brussels, Belgium

2. Overview of Presentation 1. Introduction – Agriculture and Climate Change 2. No International Unity about Climate Change 3. International Response to Climate Change 4. The 2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21) 5. Demand by farmers Constituency for Inclusion of ‘Agriculture’ in the Paris Agreement 6. Outcomes of COP21 7. The Paris Agreement implications for Smallholders 8. Conclusion

3. Introduction – Agriculture and Climate Change • Agriculture, climate change, food security and poverty reduction are inextricably linked. • As the world population grows to a projected 9 billion by 2050, agricultural production must also increase by an estimated 70 percent according to FAO. • Climate volatility, more frequent extreme weather events and temperature changes increasingly threaten the viability of agriculture and forestry sectors and rural infrastructure throughout the world. • Globally, agriculture directly accounts for 13.5 % of greenhouse gas emissions and indirectly for another 17% due to deforestation and land-use change. • The sector holds a large mitigation potential, mainly through reduced deforestation, soil management and increased productivity. • Agriculture is therefore part of the problem and part of the solution to Climate Change.

4. No International Unity about Climate Change • There is no international unity about Climate Change and its effects on human lives. • Many scientists and politicians around the world think the figures about GHG emissions, global warming and threat to future existence are not realistic and have been exaggerated. • A GREENPEACE Report – ‘‘Dealing in Doubt’’ (2013) provides information of how the fossil fuel industry has waged a campaign of climate denial for more than two decades. • Must distinguish clearly between those scientists who have challenged the theories of global warming in good faith and the efforts of the denier campaign to undermine the credibility of the scientific establishment. • The denier campaign has consistently sought to present its publications and claims in the style of genuine science, tactics modelled after ‘Big Tobacco.’ • This climate denial effort is aimed at delaying action. The objective is to create uncertainty and doubt, especially in the media and minds of non-expert policymakers.

5. In Malawi Climate Change is real and impacts on the lives of more than 90% of the population which depends on agriculture, forestry and fishing for their livelihoods. • Malawi is particularly vulnerable to Climate Change and variability because we have rain-fed agriculture which drives the economy. • Irrigation is practiced on less than 10% of the land. • Observed changes in climate include a shift in the rainfall season, with later onset and early cessation, as well as increases in the length of the dry season and reductions in the length of the growing season. • Expected increases in the frequency and severity of extreme events such as floods and storms will increase the hazards faced by not only farmers, foresters and fishermen but the general population. • In 2015/2016 season the country faced intensive flooding followed by drought which affected more than 1.1 million people, displaced 336,000 and killed 104 people. • This led to declaration of disaster for 15 Districts as up to 2.8million people are food insecure. • ITV News Video clip.

6. 3. International Response to Climate Change • The international political response to Climate Change began at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992, where the ‘Rio Convention’ included the adoption of the UN Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC). • This convention set out a framework for action aimed at stabilising atmospheric concentrations of GHGs to avoid “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” The UNFCCC which entered into force on 21 March 1994, now has a near-universal membership of 195 parties. • The main objective of the annual Conference of Parties (COP) is to review the Convention’s implementation. The first COP took place in Berlin in 1995 and significant meetings since then have included; • COP3 where the Kyoto Protocol was adopted, • COP11 where the Montreal Action Plan was produced, • COP15 in Copenhagen where an agreement to succeed Kyoto Protocol not realised, • COP17 in Durban where the Green Climate Fund was created.

7. 4. The 2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21) • In 2015 COP21, also known as the 2015 Paris Climate Conference, for the first time in over 20 years of UN negotiations, the 195 countries met to achieve a legally binding and universal agreement on climate, with the aim of keeping global warming below 2°C. • France played a leading international role in hosting this seminal conference, and COP21 was one of the largest international conferences ever held in the country. • The conference attracted close to 50,000 participants including 25,000 official delegates from government, intergovernmental organisations, UN agencies, NGOs and civil society. • This was also the largest number of Heads of State and Government ever hosted in the history of France:over 150 Heads of State and Government from around the world (including Barack Obama from the U.S., Xi Jinping from China, Narendra Modi from India and Vladimir Putin from Russia). • 117 Ministers responsible for international climate negotiations attended the High-Level Segment at the start of the second week.

8. 5. Demand by Farmers Constituency for Inclusion of ‘Agriculture’ in the Paris Agreement • At COP21 Farmers Constituency and other stakeholders wanted to ensure that ‘agriculture’ was part of the agreed text. • These included; the World Farmers’ Organization (WFO), Southern Africa Confederation of Agricultural Unions (SACAU), Pan African Farmers’ Organization (PAFO), Food Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN) as well as NGOs, CSOs and other stakeholders in the Climate Smart Agriculture Alliance, who were supporting, promoting and driving the campaign. • Their take was that the risks posed by Climate Change threaten the ability of farmers to feed a growing global population. • Achieving food security is part of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) which requires physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food. • The risks posed by a changing climate also threaten the development of the economies of our rural areas. • In many cases, those who have contributed the least to global warming are the ones set to suffer the most from its harmful effects.

9. 6. Outcomes of COP21 • To the disappointment of the Farmers Constituency ‘agriculture’ did not make it into the final Paris Agreement. • It only refers indirectly to agriculture. In the non-binding part of the Agreement ‘food security and production’ were mentioned in the COP21 Chair’s summing-up and the terms ‘food security’ and ‘food production.’ • In the preamble, the Agreement “recognises the fundamental priority of safeguarding food security and ending hunger, and the particular vulnerabilities of food production systems to the adverse impacts of climate change” • And in Article 2.1b, the purpose of the Agreement, states an aim to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by “increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development, in a manner that does not threaten food production”

10. The measures agreed include: • To peak greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible and achieve a balance between sources and sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century. • To keep global temperature increase "well below" 2°C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C (2.7° Fahrenheit) over pre-industrial levels by the end of the 21st century. • To review progress every five years. • US$100bn a year in climate finance for developing countries (to help island and developing states mitigate the ill-effects of climate change) by 2020, with a commitment to further finance in the future. • The text of the Paris Agreement is available on http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09.pdf

11. 7. The Paris Agreement implications for Smallholders • According to Thomson Reuters Foundation, reactions on how the Pairs Agreement relates to farmers there have varied from the negative, hopeful to the optimistic. Here are some examples: • The FAO welcomed the Paris Agreement, noting that for the first time ever, food security features in a global climate change accord. • Kanayo F. Nwanze, President of the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), said ‘‘this was a good springboard for approaching top decision makers in developing countries about protecting their farmers from climate change. • "Climate finance needs to include agriculture as a key sector, and support countries to implement the plans they have laid out," said CCAFS Director Bruce Campbell. • Giza Gaspar Martins, Chair of the group of 48 Least Developed Countries at the two-week talks, said the Paris deal would "move the world to a 1.5 degrees goal, while aiming to leave no-one behind". • "This deal offers a frayed lifeline to the world's poorest and most vulnerable people," said Helen Szoke, Chief Executive of aid agency Oxfam Australia.

12. Edna Molewa, South Africa's Minister of Environmental Affairs, said the accord was "not perfect", but represented a solid foundation and was "the best we can get at this historic moment". • "This is simply not good enough in giving the real certainty and predictability that finance will continue to flow at scale, particularly for adaptation," said Tim Gore, Head of Climate Change Policy with Oxfam International. • "Developed countries politicised the issue of loss and damage in the Paris talks, trying to limit options for poor countries to deal with climate threats," said Sven Harmeling, Climate Change Advocacy Coordinator for CARE International. • Mary Robinson, U.N. Special Envoy for Climate Change and former Irish President, said "the means to achieve climate justice as a human right will have to come in the coming years". • ActionAid's Harjeet Singh told farmers "This deal has taken your right to demand justice forever, you are now at the mercy of the same people who are actually causing you damage. If they decide not to (co-operate), then you will have to fend for yourself."

13. Malawi has just received approval for a grant programme of USD 12 million over 6 years from the Green Climate Fund through the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). • The programme is ‘‘Scaling Up the Use of Modernised Climate Information and Early Warning Systems in Malawi’’ and is targeting about 2 million beneficiaries. • The Malawi government will co-finance USD2m and UNDP in Malawi will add another USD 2 million with the objective of saving lives at risk from climate-related disasters and enhance resilience of vulnerable populations reliant on agricultural-based livelihoods, many of whom are women.

14. 8. Conclusion • Despite the pronouncements of doubters and naysayers, Climate Change is real and affects not only the producers of our food by the general population of the world. • The ability of smallholder farmers in Least Developed Countries to produce enough food that is safe and nutritious is being affected by extreme weather events. • The Paris Agreement, which takes over from the Kyoto Protocol, provides hope for farmers to be assisted in adaptation and mitigation against the effects of Climate Change. • We should all do our part in our spheres of influence to ensure that the signatories of the Paris Agreement and other stakeholders are providing enough funding for a less fossil fuel green economy which is more sustainable. • Climate Change should be the concern of all not just farmers.

15. Remember, without farmers there will be no food, and without food there will be no life. Thank You! www.nasfam.org