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Mega-Trends in Asia

Mega-Trends in Asia. Honolulu, Pacom, March 2012 Charles E. Morrison East-West Center. Connecting Dots: Three Mega-Disasters. December 2004: Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami: 230,000 dead October 2005: Kashmir Earthquake: 80,000 dead May 2008: Sichuan Earthquake: 70,000 dead.

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Mega-Trends in Asia

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  1. Mega-Trends in Asia Honolulu, Pacom, March 2012 Charles E. Morrison East-West Center

  2. Connecting Dots: Three Mega-Disasters • December 2004: Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami: 230,000 dead • October 2005: Kashmir Earthquake: 80,000 dead • May 2008: Sichuan Earthquake: 70,000 dead

  3. Tectonic Plates in Southern Asia EURASIA PLATE Kashmir Kathmandu Chengdu INDIA PLATE Aceh

  4. Change

  5. Certainties/Uncertainties Near Certainties: • The “rise” of Asia • Demographic changes • Pressures on resources and the environment • New health challenges Uncertainties: • Sustainable development? • Social and political evolution • International relations • Asia-Pacific role in addressing global issues

  6. Rise/Re-rise of Asia: Asia’s Share of World Gross Product Over 200+ Years ? ? H Derived from “World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1-2006 A.D.,” by Angus Maddison; Asia includes South Asia

  7. Growth of Tertiary Enrollment(Enrollment Ratios, 1985-2007) Source: World Bank

  8. Education: Percent by Gender of TertiaryAge Population in Tertiary Institutions, 2008 Source: UNESCO Institute of Statistics (India and Hong Kong, 2007)

  9. Intra-Regional Trade Integration European Union – 25 Integrating Asian Economies NAFTA Source: Peter Petri, East-West Center

  10. Demographic Tectonics

  11. China’s Population in Comparative Perspective

  12. Fertility DeclineTotal Fertility Rate: Babies per Female East-West Center, The Future of Population in Asia, 2002, p. 10.

  13. Asia Population East-West Center, Future of Population

  14. “Flight from Marriage:”(Never Married Rates: Female, Age 35-39) Adapted from Gavin C. Jones, The “Flight from Marriage” in South-East and East Asia

  15. Composition of Population(Japan)

  16. Share of Young Adult Population in East Asia (Ages 15-24) Source: Graeme Hugo, University of Adelaide, based on United Nations 2003, excludes Western Asia

  17. Growth of ElderlyPercent of Population Over Age 75 Source: East-West Center, Future of Population, 2002

  18. East Asian Urban Agglomerations (Mega-cities) over 10 million 1950 Tokyo, 11.3 million 1975 Tokyo, 26.3 million Osaka, 14.0 million Seoul-Inchon, 12.0 million Shanghai, 11.4 million 2008 estimates Tokyo, 34.4 million Jakarta, 21.8 million Seoul-Inchon, 20.0 million Manila, 19.6 million Osaka, 17.3 million Shanghai, 14.5 million Beijing, 12.8 million Guangzhou, 11.8 million Shenzhen, 11.7 million Bangkok, 10.8 million Wikipedia Sources, figures vary

  19. Comparative GDP, 2008(PPP estimates) • Tokyo, $1,479 billion • South Korea, $1,342 billion • Canada, $1,303 billion • Australia, $795 billion • Philippines, $320 billion • Hong Kong, $307 billion • Seoul, $291 billion • Vietnam, $240 billion Source: Cities, Pricewaterhousecoopers. Countries, IMF

  20. Asia Pacific Disaster Map with Mega-cities Beijing Seoul Tokyo yo Shanghai Osaka Manila Kolkata Jakarta Source: Pacific Disaster Center

  21. Resource Pressures

  22. Regional Petroleum DeficitsMillions of Barrels per day Congressional Research Service

  23. AUTOMOBILES (Millions) India Other Asia China 2000 2050 International Energy Agency Projections

  24. China’s, India’s, Share of World. . . • Population: 20.1, 18.0 percent • Coal Reserves: 12.6, 10.2 percent • Oil Reserves: 1.3, 0.5 percent • Natural Gas Reserves: 1.3, 0.6 percent Source: East-West Center, The Future of Energy in Asia-Pacific, 2007

  25. Fresh Water (Per Capita) Eart Sources: Earthlab, UN Environment Program

  26. Northern China Has . . . • 65 percent of China’s arable land • 47 percent of its population • 43 percent of GDP And only . . . • 19 percent of China’s water resources Source: Christine E. Boyle

  27. Water Problem: A Chinese Perspective China Daily cartoon, 14 November 2006

  28. Growth of Per Capita Meat Consumption – China, 1980-2007 54 kg 20 kg Source: Jonathan Watts, The Guardian, 30 May 2008 Note: For comparison, US per capita consumption about 122 kg

  29. Health Tectonics • Traditional Health Risks (down) • New infectious diseases, including HIV/AIDS, avian flu, new strains of tuberculosis (careful monitoring required) • Chronic conditions and diseases associated with aging and life style changes (up)

  30. Infectious Diseases: A Health Fault Line? • “Spanish Flu” Pneumonia: 1919 • Asian Flu: 1967 • “Bird” Flu (Hong Kong): 1997 • SARS: 2003 • “Avian” Flu: 2004-

  31. Poultry Density Source: FAO, AGA Livestock Atlas Series

  32. 11-Year-Old Children’s FitnessJapan Source: Japan Ministry of Education, Science and Technology, 2007

  33. Obesity in South Korea Korea National Health and Nutrition Survey for 2007 as reported in Chosun Ilbo, November 17, 2009. * Age 2 to 18. ** 1998 for adults.

  34. Prevalence of Diabetes: 2000-2030 151% increase 148% increase 104% Source: Wild, S, Roglic G., Green, A., Sicree, R, and King, H. “Global Prevalence of Diabetes: Estimates for the Year 2000 and Projects for 2030, Diabetes Care, Vol. 27, Number 5, May 2004. Average global increase 114%.

  35. Suicide Rates 1

  36. Suicide Rates 2: Case of Korea

  37. The Uncertainties • Sustainable development - Economic models - Resource impacts • Domestic evolution - Social disparities - Political dynamics • International relations • Global leadership

  38. Gini Co-efficients Brazil Mexico China USA Japan Sources: World Bank, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

  39. One of the big drivers of change… now China and India are getting serious

  40. Global Carbon Emissions Map from The Guardian Datablog

  41. CO2 Emitters Per Capita (tons)

  42. Attitude Survey on Environment Who Hurts the Environment the Most? China US % % Americans 40 22 Chinese 9 26 Japanese 67 17 Koreans 64 19 Indonesians 11 42 Germans 39 34 Pew Global Attitude Project, 2008

  43. Governance Issues and Political Transitions

  44. Political Systems in Evolution • Recent coups or attempted coups in recent years: Philippines, Timor Leste, Fiji, Bangladesh • New democracy: Indonesia • Maturing democracies: South Korea, Taiwan • Frequent leadership changes: Japan, Thailand, Nepal • Socialist countries in transition: China, Vietnam • Autocratic regimes: North Korea, Burma

  45. Some Geo-Political Issues • Last International War? • Ethno-nationalism (internal/international dimensions) - Pacific/Atlantic difference • Power Transitions • “Afpak” • Future of Cross-Strait Relations • Future of the Korean Peninsula • Territorial Disputes • Regional Architecture, including alliance systems, multilateral organizations (APEC, AES)

  46. THANK YOU THANK YOU SkyStudio Hawaii

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