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COLD CLIMATE RESOURCE ASSESSMENT: LESSONS LEARNED PHILIPPE C. PONTBRIAND RES-Canada Technical Lead

COLD CLIMATE RESOURCE ASSESSMENT: LESSONS LEARNED PHILIPPE C. PONTBRIAND RES-Canada Technical Lead Collaborators: Eric Muszynski, Rory Curtis 2 nd NOVEMBER 2010. Introduction Canadian climate Impact of C old C limate (CC) on project development Icing Icing type Icing prediction

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COLD CLIMATE RESOURCE ASSESSMENT: LESSONS LEARNED PHILIPPE C. PONTBRIAND RES-Canada Technical Lead

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  1. COLD CLIMATE RESOURCE ASSESSMENT: LESSONS LEARNED PHILIPPE C. PONTBRIAND RES-Canada Technical Lead Collaborators: Eric Muszynski, Rory Curtis 2nd NOVEMBER 2010

  2. Introduction Canadian climate Impact of Cold Climate (CC) on project development Icing Icing type Icing prediction RES experience Cold climate measurement system Tower and instrumentation Portable power system Cost/Benefit analysis Cold climate and uncertainty Presentation Plan

  3. Lesson #1 Challenges Very cold average temp Extreme min. and max. temp Average snow depth 0.5 to 2m Icing over 6-7 months Introduction Mean Temperature (°C) C = C anada old

  4. Tower Installation Time constraints Wind measurement Icing on Instruments Load on met towers Maintenance Site access Cold Temp. Winter 2 Winter 1 Winter 3 Impact of CC on Project development Financing RFP Development Predicted Wind Predicted Energy Higher Risks Equity vs Debt Requirements Predicted Wind Predicted Energy $/KWh Price Percent data capture (%)

  5. Icing and Wind Resource Assessment

  6. Precipitation Icing Freezing rain Regional Not very common High impact Wet Snow Not so common on site Varying adhesion In cloud Icing Rime ice Most common Local Strong adhesion Frost Not very common Worst enemies Type of Icing Klock et al., 2001

  7. Ice Map Freezing rain Public Maps : Env. Canada Very General Rime ice + Freezing Rain Few maps for Canada Not much research Will there be icing at my site? Cortinas et al. 2004 Comeau et al. 2008 • Public Ice Measurement Data • Almost none exists: Airports Env. Canada • Often far from site • Not always accurate Goodrich (Rosemount) Ice Sensor

  8. Altitude VS Icing in Canada • 75 met towers operated by RES across Canada • Full winter of data(October to May) • Anemometer height from 50 – 80m Above 550 meters AMSL: Sensors affected > 10% of time Mean hours of icing of unheated instrument vs Altitude Hours of icing (Oct-May) Altitude (m asl) 8

  9. Cold Climate Measurement System

  10. Cold climate measurement systems Tubular 50-60m Lattice 80m Vaisala WAA252 NRG IceFree A2 A1 HE-V1 HE-A1 A3 A4 V1 A5 A6 V2 ?

  11. Cold Climate Met Mast Life Cycle Cost Ratio Cumulative Running Cost

  12. Met Masts Summary 80 m lattice • Good long term value • Reduced shear uncertainty • Potential for better data availability Great Primary Mast 50 – 60 m tubular • Good short term value • Easier and faster to install Great Secondary Mast

  13. Autonomous Power System RES Generators 1st generation RES Generator: • More: $35K • Many instruments • Flexible 2nd generation • Close to 100% availability • Remote diagnostic tools • Easy to deploy Small Wind Turbine Wind Turbines 1 kW: • Cheap: $10K • Max of 2 heated instruments • Not much flexibility • Eco-Friendly • Affected by trees • Tend to freeze

  14. Heating system concept RES Autonomous Power System Concept

  15. Tower Installation Time constraints Wind measurement Icing on Instruments Load on met towers Maintenance Site access Cold Temp. Winter 2 Winter 1 Winter 3 Impact of CC on Project development Financing RFP Development Predicted Wind Predicted Energy Higher Risks Equity vs Debt Requirements Predicted Wind Predicted Energy $/KWh Price Percent data capture (%)

  16. Cold Climate and Uncertainty

  17. Cold Climate and Uncertainty • P50 is the amount of energy expected to be produced in an average year • 50% chance lower. 50% chance higher than this value • For many projects debt is sized on 1 year P99 • Annual energy production only expected to be as low as this (or lower) once every 100 years • What is the effect of higher P99/P50 ratio? • In other words: What is the value of lower uncertainty? • Example: 100MW project, $135/MWh, 35% Cf , P99(1 Year) / P50 = 70% • Increase P50 energy by 1% (Increase Cf to 35.35%), • Power price will reduce by ~ $1.35/MWh • Keep P50 at 35% Cf and increase P99(1 Year) / P50 ratio by 1% to 71% • Power price will reduce by more than one might think • 1% P99/P50 change has same value as around 0.5% to 0.7% change on P50 • Just an example treating P50 and P99 in isolation. Project financing dependent

  18. Conclusions

  19. Conclusions: • First of All … • Never underestimate the challenges of Canada’s cold climate • Icing • Not much research available to help characterize a Canadian site • Information about icing can be extracted from simple parameters like altitude • Towers and Instrumentation • Tower and instrument type need to be chosen carefully • Heating the instruments with the proper power system is a must • Cost of Uncertainty • De-icing and maintenance of instruments are key to reducing uncertainty

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