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lessons learned; Canada, the arctic and shipbuilding

lessons learned; Canada, the arctic and shipbuilding. New Paradigms for Defence and Industrial Policy. Centre for Military and Strategic Studies. Rob Huebert. Rhuebert@ucalgary.ca. School of Policy Studies , Queen University , , February 27 2012. Canada, the Arctic and Shipbuilding.

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lessons learned; Canada, the arctic and shipbuilding

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  1. lessons learned; Canada, the arctic and shipbuilding New Paradigms for Defence and Industrial Policy Centre for Military and Strategic Studies Rob Huebert Rhuebert@ucalgary.ca School of Policy Studies , Queen University , , February 27 2012

  2. Canada, the Arctic and Shipbuilding • Canada will need substantial increases in its arctic capable Fleet • Canada’s history is problematic • Canada is examining new means of acquiring ships • Politically lead Process • Rationalization of process

  3. The Problem • The Arctic is a state of massive transformation • Climate Change • Resource Development – (was up to a high $140+ barrel of oil- now $98 barrel) • Geopolitical Transformation/Globalization • How do we understand what is happening? • What is the role Canada in this new Arctic security regime?

  4. Oil and Gas: Resources of the North Oil and Gas Source: AMAP

  5. New Technologies: Proposed Arctic LNG Source: Samsung Heavy Industries

  6. Uncertain Maritime jurisdiction & boundaries in the Arcticwww.dur.ac.uk/ibru/resources/arctic

  7. New Geopolitics of the North • Russia • Renewed Assertiveness • Petrodollars/but growing economic shorfalls • United States • Multi-lateral reluctance/emerging concern to act • International Role as remaining Superpower • Developing Economic instability • Norway • Refocus on North • Growing Interest (Concern?) with Russia • Denmark • Issues with Greenland – social; energy • New Naval capabilities • Iceland • Economic melt-down • Growing relationship with China • Finland/Sweden • NATO – Loyal Arrow • Canada • Re-examining its Arctic capabilities • Renewed Assertiveness

  8. RussiaRenewed Russian Strengths • 1990’s Period of Reduction • AMEC/G-8 assistance in Sub Decommissioning • 2000’s Renewal • 6 SSBN 995 Borey • 1 built; 3 building • 6 SSN 885 Yasen/Graney • 1 built; 2 building • Payment Challenges • Build 6 subs and 1 carrier a year 2013 -Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin Yury Dolgoruky

  9. United StatesUS Arctic Forces • Submarine Forces: • US – Seawolf and Los Angles Class; Virginia Class • Cooperation with UK • ICEX March 2009 – 2 LA class SSN • ICEX March 2011 – 1 Seawolf and 1 Virgina - Missile Development Missile Defence – Ft. Greely USS Honolulu 2003 HMS Tireless 2007 after accident

  10. New Norwegian Frigates • Fridtjof Nansen class • 5 built in Spanish Yards • Aegis system Roald Amundsen and Admiral Kuznetsov 2008 Source: RNoAF

  11. Svalbard- Norwegian Coast Guard Source: Canadian American Strategic Review

  12. Danish Vessels Thesis class Flyvefisken class

  13. Swedish/Baltic Response to French Sales to Russia • Nordic-Baltic Summit Jan 2011 – UK, Norway, Sweden, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania plus Finland, Sweden • Swedish FM - Submarines Mistral

  14. China • Was not detected by Canada until arriving in Tuk • Polar Research Institute of China -1st Arctic Voyage: July-Sept 1999 -2nd Arctic Voyage: July-Sept 2003 -3rd Arctic Voyage Summer 2008 New Chinese Icebreaker

  15. South Korea 1st Arctic Shuttle Tanker Source: Samsung Heavy Industries

  16. The History • The voyage of the Polar Sea and its aftermath • Clark’s 6 point arctic policy • Construction of polar 8 icebreaker • Construction of 10 to 12 Nuclear powered submarines

  17. Failure of 1986 Policy • Polar 8 Icebreaker • Politicalization of process • Provincial Shipyards Battle • Lack of political support • Impact of deficit/debt • Nuclear Powered Submarines • End of Cold War • Confusion over purpose • Impact of deficit /debts

  18. What is Canada now doing? • New Military Operations since 2002 • 6-8 Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessels • Nanisivik Refueling Facility • Northern Watch • Feb 2008 Budget – $720 Million Icebreaker • Mandatory Reporting of Ship Traffic – Nordreg • Canada Shipbuilding Policy Oct 2011

  19. Canadian Navy in Northern Waters Post 2002

  20. Base Location Resolute Bay Iqaluit Ft. Greely St. John’s

  21. Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessel Source: Canadian Navy Be capable of operations in Canada’s three oceans Be first year ice capable in the Arctic Contribute to maritime domn awareness Support other departments, agencies and ocean research Have a gun armament for constabulary missions

  22. Diefenbaker

  23. New Developments • Shipbuilding Policy • Rational non-political Process • Long term durability • Politically led Capital Project – AOPV • Decision was from Political Elites • Did Navy want the vessel? • American Arctic Requirements • Good cooperation since 1986 • American need for icebreakers

  24. Conclusion • Geopolitics Concerns reduced immediately after end of Cold War • New concerns are arising as Arctic is perceived/becoming more accessible • Issues will be Maritime/Aerospace • Issues will be understanding entry of new actors to the region • Canada will need substantial maritime assets • Current plan is promising

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