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AB 32 Board Member Offsite April 13, 2007

This article presents evidence for global warming and its potential impacts on California's health, air quality, agriculture, water resources, coastal areas, and species. It also discusses the challenge of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and provides relevant statistics and information.

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AB 32 Board Member Offsite April 13, 2007

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  1. AB 32 Board Member Offsite April 13, 2007

  2. The Greenhouse Effect 2

  3. Evidence For Global Warming • IPCC has concluded the evidence is overwhelming • Discernible signs are being seen now - the extent of snowmelt in Greenland in 2005 is most extensive in the 27-year history of data collection • Some human-induced climate change is inevitable

  4. Potential Impacts on California Health Air Quality - Respiratory Illness Weather-related Mortality Infectious and Tropical Diseases Agriculture Crop Yields Irrigation Demands Water Resources Water Supply Water Quality Competition for Water Coastal Areas Erosion of Beaches Inundation of Coastal Wetlands Additional Costs to Protect Coastal Communities Species and Natural Areas Loss of Habitat and Species Climate Changes Temperature Increase Precipitation Patterns and Extremes SeaLevel Rise Forests Forest Composition Geographic Range of Forests Forest Health and Productivity Source: Anne Grambsch, 1998

  5. California Impacts to Date Over Past 100 Years 0.7 oF higher temperatures 3-8 inch sea level rise 12% spring run-off decrease Snowmelt and spring blooms advanced 1-3 weeks (since 1975)

  6. Hotter Days Lead to Higher Emissions and More Smog • Los Angeles Ozone Levels (1995-1998) • 10 warmest years of the last century all occurred within the last 15 years. Ozone (ppm) California Ozone Standard Temperature (oF)

  7. Governor’s Executive Orderand AB 32, Nunez/Pavley • GHG reduction targets • By 2010, reduce to 2000 levels* • By 2020, reduce to 1990 levels** (AB 32) • By 2050, 80% below 1990 levels*** * 60 MMT or 11% below business as usual ** 174 MMT or 30% below business as usual *** Where international scientists say we need to be

  8. 11 11 Size of the Challenge

  9. Sources of California Emissions CO2 Equivalent (2002) Others 8% Transportation Electric Power 41% 20% Industrial 23% Agriculture & Forestry 8%

  10. 1 MMT CO2 is Equal To… • 216,000 cars not driven one year • 114 million gallons of gasoline saved • 2.3 million barrels of oil saved • Converting one 500 MW coal burning power plant to a 500 MW combined cycle gas plant • Replacing 1.5 million inefficient refrigerators • Replacing 13 million light bulbs with compact fluorescent lamps

  11. Climate Change Species Indirect Greenhouse Gases Ozone precursors • Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) • Oxides of Nitrogens (NOX) Carbon Monoxide (CO) Oxides of Sulfurs (SOX) Direct Greenhouse Gases • Carbon dioxide (CO2)* • Methane (CH4)* • Nitrous oxide (N2O)* • Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)* • Per fluorocarbons (PFCs) * • Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) * • Ozone (O3) * Greenhouse gases identified in Kyoto protocol. Climate change impacts of other species are either too small or have highly uncertain warming/cooling impact. • Aerosols • Sulfate, Nitrate, Mineral Dust, Carbonaceous particles

  12. 1990 Baseline/2020 Target • ARB inherited CEC inventory as of January 1, 2007 • Work underway to improve basis and documentation • ARB to adopt 1990 baseline by January 1, 2008 which will be the 2020 target

  13. Mandatory Reporting • ARB to adopt regulations by January 1, 2008 • To extent feasible on protocols from California Climate Action Registry • Tight timeline

  14. Where We Are • Governor’s Executive Order Setting Low-Carbon Fuel Standard • PUC and CEC work on SB 1368 • PUC work on carbon cap for electric sector • Meetings with stakeholders • Building Internal Capacity

  15. Where We Are • Committees Have Been Meeting • Global Warming Environmental Justice Committee • Economic and Technology Advancement Advisory Committee • Market Advisory Committee

  16. Climate Action Team • CAT Coordinates Multi-Agency Involvement • Subgroups • Agriculture • Forestry • Green Buildings • Landfills • Local Government/Smart Growth • State Fleet • Water/Energy • Economics • Energy • Scenario Analysis

  17. Emerging Issues • Discrete Early Actions • Budget Request • Cap-and-Trade v. Direct Regulation • Allocation • Supreme Court Decision • AB 1493

  18. Legislation

  19. Timing of Board Decisions • January 2007 – Appoint Advisory Committees • June 2007 – Publish Early Action List • November 2007 – Adopt Baseline/Target and Reporting Regulations • November 2008 – Approve Scoping Plan • November 2010 – Adopt Implementing Regulations

  20. Recommended WebsitesFor More Information • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change http://www.ipcc.ch/ • U.S Climate Change Science Program http://www.climatescience.gov/ • Goddard Institute for Space Studies – Institute on Climate and Planets: http://icp.giss.nasa.gov/ • California Climate Change Portal http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/index.html • ARB’s Climate Change Page http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/cc.htm • U.S. EPA’s Global Warming Site http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/index.html • Real Climate – Climate Science from Climate Scientists http://www.realclimate.org/

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