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NPC Future Transportation Fuels Study Overview of Light Duty Vehicle Analytical Models and Tools

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acton-buck
11 diapositives · 219 Views · Nov 15, 2014

This document presents a comprehensive overview of the modeling methodologies used for assessing light duty vehicle technologies and fuel pathways. The study covers inputs such as vehicle technology prices, propulsion systems, fueling infrastructure, and biofuel supply curves. Additionally, it details analytical tools like the VISION model, which forecasts market share and vehicle attributes based on fuel characteristics and GHG emissions data. The findings are intended for discussion within the National Petroleum Council study framework, highlighting the intersection of technology, economics, and environmental impact.

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NPC Future Transportation Fuels Study Overview of Light Duty Vehicle Analytical Models and Tools
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  1. NPC Future Transportation Fuels StudyOverview of Light Duty VehicleAnalytical Models and Tools April 25, 2012 DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE For NPC Study Discussion Only

  2. Modeling Methodology Overview Fuels & InfrastructureModel Vehicle Attribute Model Vehicle attributes & fuel characteristics Vehicle Choice Model Mkt. share by year for new sales VISION Tool INPUTS MODELS OUTPUTS • Inputs from Study Step 1 • Vehicle technology prices • Propulsion system prices • Fueling infrastructure • Fuel pathway prices • Biofuel supply curves • Other inputs • AEO2010 oil price scenarios • GHG factors for fuels • Integrating Parameters • Fuel consumed • GHG emissions • Fleet share of vehicles by type • Vehicle cost of fleet (cents/mile) • Fuel cost (cents/mile) • Vehicle miles traveled DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTEFor NPC Study Discussion Only

  3. Modeling Methodology Overview Model files and how they link  Matrix worksheet in matrixCollection.xlsThis file lists the cases to be run. The macro drives the other files by looping through cases and writing case parameters. Inputs.xlsVehicle Attribute ModelIncludes fuel prices and vehicle technology parameters from the chapter work. Provides vehicle and fuel attributes to Vehicle Choice Model. Stores biofuel volumes with corresponding GREET coefficients and fuel dispensing and charging costs. case parameters case numbers oil price case identifiertime horizon case identifier vehicle attributesfuel attributes biofuel and fuel dispensing and charging infrastructure attributes VISIONbase.xlsVISIONhigh.xlsVISIONlow.xlsVISION Tool for three oil casesFleet stock is tracked and energy / fuel use computed VCM.xlsVehicle Choice ModelMarket shares are computed for use by VISION. Vehicle and fuel attributes are passed through to VISION. market sharesvehicle attributesfuel attributes case results - outputs regarding new vehicles case results - outputs regarding vehicle fleet CaseResults.xlsCaptures key outputs from VCM and VISION. Calculates various ratios and aggregates as additional outputs case results Macroread / write  Collection and CollectMktSh worksheets in matrixCollection.xlsRepository for results. Case parameters and results for key years are written to these worksheets. Link DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTEFor NPC Study Discussion Only 3

  4. Case Structure and Terminology PEV Liq ICE CNGV PHEV BEV FCEV Conventional CNGV PHEV10 BEV100 FCEV HEV PHEV40 10 Portfolios 8 Toggles Diesel All In Efficiency Tech Pricesupper / lower Liq ICE 3 System Tech Pricesupper / lower 4 Tech Priceshigh / low 4 Tech Priceshigh / low Liq ICE + CNGV Hydrogen Priceshigh / low Liq ICE + PEV Oil Priceshigh / ref / low Liq ICE + PHEV X Liq ICE + BEV Electric Charginghome / ubiquitous Liq ICE + FCEV Biofuel Supplyhigh / low / no adv All In - CNGV X All In - PEV 3 yr / 17 yrTime Horizons All In - FCEV Run = 2,988 total cases Conv / HEV / Diesel / PHEVs (green outline) consume biofuel DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE For NPC Study Discussion Only

  5. Dashboard Tools DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE For NPC Study Discussion Only

  6. Swimlane Charts for Case-by-Case Comparison of Vehicle AttributesExample: Tech Prices High; Fuel Low; 47,500 miles (3yr); Small Car; HC Note: this example is 1 case of 384 cases that are generated in the Vehicle Attribute Model Note: this example is 1 case of 384 cases that are generated in the Vehicle Attribute Model DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE For NPC Study Discussion Only

  7. Case Dashboard for Vehicle Choice Model and VISION OutputsExample: All In; Tech Prices High; Petro Ref; Hydrogen High; Home Charging; 47,500 miles (3yr); No Advanced Biofuels Note: this example is 1 case of 2,988 total cases that are generated by the Vehicle Choice Model and VISION Tool DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE For NPC Study Discussion Only

  8. Case Cluster Dashboard for Query of Output CharacteristicsExample: All In; 47,500 miles (3yr); 2050; Advanced Biofuels; average over all Oil Prices, Hydrogen Prices and Technology Prices DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE For NPC Study Discussion Only

  9. Backup DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE For NPC Study Discussion Only

  10. Shared Systems across Vehicle Technology Subgroups Diesel Conventional CNGV HEV PHEV10 PHEV40 BEV100 FCEV 2008 Conventional Vehicle (based on AEO2010) – Baseline Glider Modification Technology Options for Improved Fuel Economy CI ICE Internal Combustion Engine (SI ICE) ICE Gen Set ETS - partial Electric Traction System (ETS) - full Vehicle and Key Subsystems Power Battery Energy Battery Power Battery CNG Storage H2 Storage Fuel Cell Sys Vehicle Design Point: minimize Vehicle Price + Fuel Cost subject to Vehicle Choice Model parameters VCM Hydrogen Elec Infra A Elec Infra B Elec Infra C Electricity Fuel + Infrastructure CNG CI Biofuel SI Biofuel SI Biofuel Diesel Gasoline Gasoline Diesel Conventional CNGV HEV PHEV10 PHEV40 BEV100 FCEV DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE For NPC Study Discussion Only

  11. Toggle Detail and Case Combinations Each case run with both 3-year and 17-year time horizons for a total of 192 x 2 = 384 cases DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE For NPC Study Discussion Only