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Notes for Central Region, NWS, May 17, 2007

Notes for Central Region, NWS, May 17, 2007 John Wiener John.Wiener@Colorado.Edu 303-492-6746 What we’re doing Series of NOAA OAR Human Dimensions, COP, SARP grants to look at potential improvements in water management by increased use of forecasts

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Notes for Central Region, NWS, May 17, 2007

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  1. Notes for Central Region, NWS, May 17, 2007 John Wiener John.Wiener@Colorado.Edu 303-492-6746

  2. What we’re doing • Series of NOAA OAR Human Dimensions, COP, SARP grants to look at potential improvements in water management by increased use of forecasts • Ability to respond is key issue in Colorado, so water law and economics important • Substantial efforts also in policy discussions • “Climate-responsive water management” on the small scale -- most western water consumption is in agriculture, with important side effects not well represented

  3. Relation to Regional Efforts • Confession of ignorance! • Previous focus (CO, UT, NM, Tribes) on what Cx/Wx information was used, what was wanted. • “Shopping Lists” • Format – “now; last year; normal” • Shoulder seasons, surprises, and ability to apply locally from forecasts thought to be for elsewhere, and remote measures.

  4. Possible Interactions • “Calibration” idea: tools to help with using data; if ET is 0.4 for Akron, I should input 0.5 for Kiowa in my irrigation scheduling tool. If the snow is forecast to arrive at Pueblo early Sunday morning, I’d better respond by Saturday noon, to be safe…” • Shoulder season/surprises – find combinations of users (DOT!) to avoid “ag. weather” only – NIDIS may help… researchers could be asked • High intensity precipitation – all scales of forecasts, for applications to • Ditches – linear interceptors of flash floods! • Soil conservation – tillage, crop choices, input applications, etc • New gridded forecast guidance – feedback on that yet? Model for other efforts?

  5. Requests • More text discussions, tutorials, etc. to build use of forecasts – Ideal: Hartmann summit on a standardization of public information glossary/thesaurus, and format to build familiarity • Ag. Stress in Central US – from severe to moderate, USGCRP, etc etc… some areas very adversely affected • Water management: re-allocation and problem avoidance… build awareness and flexibility ASAP – big institutional changes

  6. Requests • Long-term adaptability in resource management: NWS critical in developing climate awareness and understanding needed for viability of on-the-ground management of private land and water • Biological/ecological/environmental, and recreational/amenity/quality of life, and water quality all interact with current management and continuing loss of farming may be extremely destructive of these conditions – both negative and positive externalities…. Can you help build awareness? “Good weather for fishing with the sediments settling down…” “Frog time about now in Indiana, Illinois, and eastern Iowa…”

  7. Requests for Small-Scale Water Management • Beyond the “shopping lists”, build awareness of the “seamless suite”, and mention different basis and qualities of the forecasts • Continue cooperation with Extension services that produce decision support (KanSched, CropFlex, Water Optimizer, etc) for farmers now. • Range management/dry land farming/pasture and grazing leases are probably underserved all over (public as well as private lands) – the regional agriculture, more than wetter areas, is livestock as well as crop dependent, so the extensive as well as intensive land management issues are important. • Finally, in collaboration with Regional Climate Centers, the RISA projects (need one Great Plains!) and Extension, consider the “storm ready” project as case study for lessons learned about partnership development, acceptance of products, getting user/partner “buy-in”, and promotion of new information…

  8. Two references and offer • Apology for very short preparation time! • Soil, long-term adaptability: Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop, 2007 presentation, Wiener – should be posted soon; available from John.Wiener@Colorado.Edu • Climate responsive agricultural water management: variety of presentations, one-pagers, etc, available on request. Many topics addressed for policy discussion as well as research purposes. • “Shopping lists”: Howe, C.W. and J.D. Wiener, 2004, Attachments to Report on Exploratory Assessment of Potential for Improved Water Resources Management in Three Western States and Selected Tribes, http://www.ogp.noaa.gov/mpe/csi/econhd/1999/howe_2004_attach.pdf

  9. Looking for Trouble… Biological and Environmental Issues and Problem Avoidance: The Green is “under a ditch”… but we have little science on what is “out there”! Data source: Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper, 2005. Map by Thomas W. Dickinson, Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado at Boulder

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