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PROSPECTIVE R & D BENEFITS FRAMEWORK Robert L. Hirsch March 4, 2002

PROSPECTIVE R & D BENEFITS FRAMEWORK Robert L. Hirsch March 4, 2002. RAND. This Presentation Academies Framework Need, Opportunity or Regulatory Forcing Goals, Targets, Markets, Competition Prospective Framework Elements Concluding Remarks. RAND. Academies

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PROSPECTIVE R & D BENEFITS FRAMEWORK Robert L. Hirsch March 4, 2002

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  1. PROSPECTIVE R & D BENEFITS FRAMEWORK Robert L. Hirsch March 4, 2002 RAND

  2. This Presentation • Academies Framework • Need, Opportunity or Regulatory Forcing • Goals, Targets, Markets, Competition • Prospective Framework Elements • Concluding Remarks RAND

  3. Academies RETROSPECTIVE BENEFITS MATRIX For R & D Project Evaluation Realized Benefits OptionsBenefits Knowledge Benefits EconomicBenefits ? ? ? Environmental Benefits ? ? ? Security Benefits ? ? ? RAND

  4. Measuring DOE R, D & D Benefits DOE Cosponsored Product Enters the Market What Would Have Happened Anyway (Industry/Foreign) Benefits Time Variable Depending on Many Factors - Academies Assumed 5 years Could be years to a decade or more. RAND

  5. Frame Change Retrospective: Academies Study Prospective: Today’s Challenge Foresight- Many Unknowns! Hindsight- Most known. RAND

  6. Where the Project Starting From? 1. NEED Customers did their own planning, assessments & priorities & found a GAP. 2. OPPORTUNITY Usually an idea by a technologist or a planner. Usually requires marketing to convince others. 3. REGULATORY FORCING A technology that is to be regulated into the market. RAND

  7. NEEDS & OPPORTUNITIES • Goal:A competitively attractive innovation. • Questions: • 1. Why a GovernmentRole? • 2. Is the target Go-to-Market or Option? • Requirement:Understand the competition - products currently in the market & how those products are likely to be improved in the intervening period. RAND

  8. EXCELLENT SOURCE FOR INFORMATION ON THE COMPETITION EIA Annual Energy Outlook Example 8000 PHOTOVOLTAICS 6000 Projected Installed Cost ($/kw) 4000 GAS MICROTURBINES 2000 o o o o 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Time RAND EIA/AEO 2001

  9. New Technology Hurdles Existing Technology Costs Known Performance Known Reliability Known Service Known Regulatory Known Risks Known Wastes Known Shortcomings Known Life Known New Technology To be of free-market interest, a new technology must provide significant benefits beyond what already exists. All else equal, its costs must be > 20% better than what exists to overcome unknowns & risks. Otherwise: Government Incentives or Regulatory Change?

  10. R & D PROJECT REQUIREMENTS & TRACKING Need, Opportunity or Regulatory Forcing One or More Good Ideas High Benefit/Cost Expectation Supporter Interest & Funding Project Completion Project Initiation Check Points Along the Way

  11. PROSPECTIVE FRAMEWORK ELEMENTS - I GOALS / TARGETS TARGETS Early Use Option Knowledge ? ? ? Economic GOALS ? ? Environmental ? ? ? ? Security RAND

  12. PROSPECTIVE FRAMEWORK ELEMENTS - II KNOWNS / ASSUMPTIONS • Changes • TodayExpectedNeeded for Success • Competition • Economics • Regulation • Other Influences Baseline Scenarios? RAND

  13. Concluding Remarks • Probably involves more homework than in the past. • - Know thy competition. • - Describe thy market. • Researchers should be heavily involved to better understand project challenges & variables. • Approach should be simple, intuitive, transparent and common across DOE. RAND

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