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REPUBLIC OF BELARUS. OUTLINE:. Background Economic development since 1991 Preconditions and impact of world financial crisis in 2008 Devaluation of currency in 2009 Conclusion. BACKGROUND. Total area 207,600 sq km Population 9,648,533 (2009) GDP-real growth rate 8.1% (2008)
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OUTLINE: • Background • Economic development since 1991 • Preconditions and impact of world financial crisis in 2008 • Devaluation of currency in 2009 • Conclusion
BACKGROUND • Total area 207,600 sq km • Population 9,648,533 (2009) • GDP-real growth rate 8.1% (2008) • GDP per capita $12,000 (2008) • Labor force 4.3 million (2005) • Official unemployment rate 1.6% (2005) • Inflation rate (consumer prices) 15.5 % (2008) • CA balance -$3.832 billion (2008)
Since independence 1991: Source: Country Economic Memorandum for the Republic of Belarus, World Bank
Average annual GDP growth, % Source: World Bank ECA Regional Database
Average annual inflation, % Source: World Bank ECA Regional Database
Structure of export of production from the Republic of Belarus in 2007, in cost expression Source: IRUE "National center of marketing and price study"
GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS, 2008Preconditions: • High degree of government interventions • Underdeveloped stock market • High dependence on trade with Russia • Slow pace of geographic export diversification
GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISISImpact: • State dominated economy, limited contact with world financial markets, less dependent on international credit not severe effect of financial crisis • Sharp decline in Russian economic subsidies and sharp decline in exports and imports to Russia due to financial crisis affected Belarusian economy
JANUARY 2009 CURRENCY DEVALUATION • immediate 20 % devaluation in the BYB, implemented on January 2, 2009 • $2.5bn (£1.7bn, €1.8bn) IMF emergency loan, $1 bn credit from Russia, $ 500 mln from Venezuela • the central bank raised interest rates from 12 to 14% • possible devaluation in the future by 25 %
BELARUSIAN RURLE OFFICIAL AVERAGE EXCHANGE RATE AGAINST FOREIGN CURRENCY Source: National Bank of Belarus
CONCLUSION • State-dominated economy • High dependence on single and unstable market – Russia • Impact of financial crisis • Need for economic reforms • Questionable effect of currency devaluation
REFERENCES • CIA factbook • National Bank of Belarus • IMF • IPM Research Center • Financial Times, UK • Deutsche Welle • Narodnaya Volya, Belarusian news