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Statistical Dynamics of Religions and Adherents

Statistical Dynamics of Religions and Adherents. Marcel Ausloos and Filippo Petroni GRAPES (*) @ SUPRATECS, Univ. Liege, Euroland. (*) Group for Research and Applications of Physics in Economy and Sociology. Table of Contents (1/2). Introduction to Society-physics

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Statistical Dynamics of Religions and Adherents

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  1. Statistical Dynamics of Religions and Adherents Marcel Ausloos and Filippo Petroni GRAPES (*) @ SUPRATECS, Univ. Liege, Euroland (*) Group for Research and Applications of Physics in Economy and Sociology Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  2. Table of Contents (1/2) • Introduction to Society-physics • « Statistical » vs. « Physical » features of Networks • Static pictures : snapshot models • Evolving models , Dynamics • Degree(s) of freedom ? Order parameter(s) • Interactions, Phase diagrams, etc. • Languages and Religions • Other cases of “sociological networks” • Music listeners and groups • Opinion formation and communities • Conclusions Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  3. Table of Contents (2/2) • Languages and religions • Languages (5 minutes) • Empirical Data • Statistics • Dynamics • Religions (25 minutes) • Empirical Data • Statistics • Dynamics Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  4. Modelling the dynamics of language death (*) • Nowak & Krakauer, PNAS (99) • (*) Abrams & Strogatz, Nature (03) • Dorogovtsev & Mendes (01) • Viviane de Oliveira et al. (05) • Stauffer et al. (06) • Thelwall & Price (06) • etc. N.B. Evolution equation à la Verhulst Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  5. Verhulst Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  6. Reaction diffusion flow Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  7. # of languages vs. # of speakers • “language sizes” • 104 (binned in powers of 2) • Log-normal function • except for small s# • Language = strings of bits, evolving as population grows Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  8. Linguistophysics • Language Cognition / understanding • Semantics • Statistics • Language Evolution • Grammar • Vocabulary • Language Competition • Size distribution • Exo- and endo-genous effects Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  9. Definitions (1/2) • Barns & Noble (Cambridge) Encyclopedia (1990): "...no single definition will suffice to encompass the varied sets of traditions, practices, and ideas which constitute different religions." • The Concise Oxford Dictionary (1990): "Human recognition of superhuman controlling power and especially of a personal God entitled to obedience.” • Webster's New World Dictionary (Third College Edition): "any specific system of belief and worship, often involving a code of ethics and a philosophy.” • Merriam-Webster's Online Dictionary: "a cause, principle, or system of beliefs held to with ardor and faith." Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  10. Definitions (2/2) • Religion is any specific system of belief about deity, often involving rituals, a code of ethics, a philosophy of life, and a worldview. (!) or • … and • An adept is an individual identified as having attained a specific level of knowledge, skill, or aptitude in doctrines relevant to a particular (author or) organization. Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  11. Indicators • Number of groups, sects, • Number of churches, parishes, • Number of chapels, sites, • Number of “priests”, (clergy) • Number of “believers”, sex, age, wealth, language • Intensity of participations, • Wealth and financing, • Type of hierarchy, Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  12. Evolutionary view • Religion needs language, rituals, … • Is there a natural selection (à la Darwin) ? • Ecological • Economical • Ecclesiastical • Exological • Endological • Genetical Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  13. Religiophysics • Religion Cognition • History • Religiometrics • Religion Evolution • Gods • Rituals • Religion Competition • Size distributions • Exo- and endo-genous effects Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  14. Quantity: multilingual : frequent variety : dialects, slangs,… Time scales long Grammar, Vocabulary… Nucleation and growth … deaths Applied fields : rare Quantity “polyreligious”: rare variety: enormous, … and yet ! denominations, sects, cults Time scales varied (short) Rituals SOC, avalanches Constantine, Khazars, etc. … deaths Applied fields : very strong Inquisition, … Languages vs. Religions Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  15. c Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  16. Clovis ca. 466-(486)-27 Nov., 511 Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  17. Spontaneous conversions:Khazars and Karaims • ' 'judaization" of the Khazars • Khazars were a Turkish group of tribes and nations, who ruled an empire extending east and west of the Caspian Sea, from the sixth or seventh to the tenth or eleventh centuries. They engaged in the eighth century in a bloody struggle with the last Umayyad khalif. Around 965 they were decisively defeated by Russian settlers. Their enmity to their Muslim and Christian neighbours caused their ruler, part of the nobility and apparently also of the people, to adopt Judaism around 740. The Karaite version has usually been that what they adopted was, in fact, Karaism. • The adoption of the religion of the Old Testament by the Khazars, at least by a part of them including the court of the kaghan and the court dignitaries, occurred according to Hebrew sources in the first half of the 8th century, and according to the Muslim annalists during the reign of calif Harun ar-Rashid (786-809) • http://www.turkiye.net/sota/karhist.htm Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  18. Forced conversion • A forced conversion occurs when someone adopts a religion or philosophy under the threat that a refusal would result in negative non-spiritual consequences. These consequences range from job loss and social isolation to incarceration, torture or death. Typically, such a conversion entails the repudiation of former religious or philosophical convictions. • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forced_conversion Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  19. Forced conversion :Jews and Muslims in Iberia • During the 15th century, Jews and Muslims in Iberia were frequently pressured into converting to Christianity. This culminated in their expulsion from Spain in 1492. Subsequently, in 1497, the Jews in Portugal were forcibly converted to Christianity. [2] • encouraged and, in about 700 CE, was actually forbidden by law.[10] Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  20. Forced conversion :Jews and others in Arab countries • Even though occasionally, individual cases of forced conversions such as of Ibn Firsa against Samaritans can be noticed under Islamic rule, Islamic law clearly forbade forced conversions.[11][12] Forced conversions did play a key role in some later periods of Islamic history, mostly in the 12th century under the Almohad dynasty of North Africa and al-Andalus as well as in Persia where Shi'a Islam is dominant.[13] • While Jewish communities in Arab and Islamic countries fared better overall than those in Christian Europe, Jews were no strangers to persecution and humiliation among the Arabs and Muslim. • Frood Fouladvand, a doctor of history and religious philosophy, strongly emphasizes the use of forced conversion in Islamic nature. He claims that the barbarity of forced conversion played a significant role of Islam’s development in early stages, relating to the Muslim conquests and modern inhumanity in several Islamic-ruling territories. Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  21. Discrimination :Zoroastrians • Zoroastrians have faced much religious discrimination including forced conversions, harassments, as well as being identified as najis and impure to some groups of Muslims, while they are originally recognized as Ahle Kitab, along side with Christians and Jews who have a holy scripture, as they believe in one God and His prophet, Zarathushtra (Grk:Zoroaster).These persistent persecutions have overall resulted in the ruling class Zoroastrian community which had much influence over the pre-Islamic era Persian empires to become one of the smallest religious minorities in the world. • Persecution of Zoroastrians have mainly taken place in their own homeland Persia, modern day Iran.[1] The history of persecution of Zoroastrians started from the Arab conquest of Persia and fall of the Sassanid Empire. Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  22. Cathars, Albigensian Crusade In January 1208 the papal legate, Pierre de Castelnau was sent to meet the ruler of the area, Count Raymond VI of Toulouse. Known for excommunicating noblemen who protected the Cathars, Pierre de Castelnau excommunicated Raymond as an abettor of heresy. Castelnau was immediately murdered near Saint Gilles Abbey on his way back to Rome by a knight in the service of Count Raymond. As soon as he heard of the murder, the Pope ordered the legates to preach a Crusade against the Cathars. Having failed in his effort to peacefully demonstrate the perceived errors of Catharism, the Pope then called a formal crusade, appointing a series of leaders to head the assault. There followed twenty years of war against the Cathars and their allies in the Languedoc: the Albigensian Crusade. The crusader army came under the command, both spiritual and military, of the papal legate Arnaud-Amaury, Abbot of Cîteaux. In the first significant engagement of the war, the town of Béziers was taken on 22 July 1209. Arnaud, the Cistercian abbot-commander is supposed to have been asked how to tell Cathar from Roman Catholic. His famous reply, recalled by a fellow Cistercian, was "Caedite eos. Novit enim Dominus qui sunt eius." — “Kill them all, the Lord will recognise His own”.[2] Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  23. d’Egmont et de Hornes June 5, 1568 Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  24. St Bartholomew massacreAug 24, 1572 Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  25. Robert Cardinal Bellarmine (1542-1621) • Bellarmine became the first Jesuit professor at the university of Louvain (in modern Belgium) in 1569 and was ordained as a priest the following year. Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  26. Galileo Galilei 15 February 1564 – (1633) - 08 January 1642 Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  27. Giordano Bruno1548 - Feb. 17, 1600 Bruno had maintained that Moses was a great magician. It was fiction that he spoke with god. Jesus was a magician and a wretch. There was no reason to wonder at his miracles because he, Bruno, could perform even greater ones. Bruno was said to have mocked the resurrection and the virgin birth. He said there was no Hell and no-one would suffer eternal punishment. There was no distinction of persons in God, since this would be imperfection. Prayer, relics, images were all without efficacy. Monks were asses. No religion pleased him. Asked - what religion do you adhere to? Bruno quoted a line from Ariosto: "Enemy of every law and every faith" and let out a great laugh. seven years in prison +Campo dei Fiori Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  28. Top ten martyrs Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  29. Martyr tree Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  30. Atheists • Irreligious people in Iran are not recognized as citizens. While Jews, Christians and other minorities have the right to take part in university entrance exams and can become members of parliament or city councils, irreligious people are not granted even their basic rights. Most irreligious people, however, hide their beliefs and pretend to be Muslims. Non-believers—atheists—under Islam do not have "the right to life". Apostasy in Iran is punishable by death.[1] • Among those imprisoned for atheism was Denis Diderot (1713–1784), • Medieval beliefs that most closely approach strong atheism were probably held by some members of the pantheistic Brethren of the Free Spirit. A man called Löffler, who was burned in Bern in 1375 for confessing adherence to this movement, is reported to have taunted his executioners that they would not have enough wood to burn "Chance, which rules the world.” • During the late Roman Empire, atheism — a capital crime — was a common legal prosecution against Christians by henotheists. Christians rejected the Roman gods, and henotheists rejected the exclusivity of Christian monotheism. • On March 25, 1811, Percy Bysshe Shelley was expelled from Oxford University for not refusing authorship of the pamphlet The Necessity of Atheism Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  31. Spatial &/or Time scales!!! • Afro-Brazilian Cultists • Mandeans (60 k) • Eglise Chr. Univ. (2 k) • Antoinistes (200 k) • Mormons (13 M) Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  32. Competition • Combative hostility toward competing faiths characterizes Brazil's fastest- growing Pentecostal group, the Universal Church of the Kingdom of God. Its authoritarian bishop, Edir Macedo de Bezerra, 45, began preaching in 1977 to a dozen curiosity seekers in a rented room above a funeral parlor; today his flock is 2 million strong. The movement filled a 150,000-seat Rio stadium twice last year, opens one new church a week, and has added a $45 million Sao Paulo TV channel to its 14 radio stations. Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  33. Culte antoiniste • One of oldest is the Antoinist religion, founded by Louis Antoine at the end of the last century. The concept of disease is denied, just as is that of death (belief in the reincarnation): it is intelligence which creates suffering, it is only faith in and of itself which removes it, and not the intervention of health professionals. • La Science Chrétienne, née aux États-Unis à la fin du XIXe siècle sous l'impulsion de Mary Baker Eddy (1821-1910), et l'Antoinisme, mis en place par Louis Antoine (1846-1912) au tout début du XXe siècle en Belgique, ont trois caractéristiques communes. • http://culteantoiniste.com/index.html Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  34. Père Antoine • Un seul remède peut guérir l'humanité : LA FOI ; c'est de la foi que naît l'amour Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  35. Recent Religious Movements: “seed” and “soil” effects • a. Kimbanguism -- Zaire, Angola (3 M) • b. Dehima--Sub-Sahara (400 k) • c. Sokka-Gakkai--Japan (10 M) • d. Umbanda--Brazil • e. ‘’Course in Miracles’’--U.S.A • f. ‘’AAO’’--Germany, Austria, Switzerland • g. Unification Church--United Kingdom • h. Cargo Cults--Papua New Guinea Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  36. Data ? • International Data Base (IDB) • see table 58 : information on the population of 103 nations worldwide. • The surveys were carried out between 1960 and 1992. • It gives the number of adherents of 150 religions, • for about 2 billion people : 1/3 of the present world population. • World Christian Encyclopedia (WCE) • 56 religions • from 1900 till 2000 survey over a 5 year span • forecast for 2025 and 2050. • D. Barrett, G. Kurian, T. Johnson, World Christian Encyclopedia (2nd edition) (New York: Oxford University Press, 2001) Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  37. WCE-WCT Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  38. BEL Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  39. Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  40. Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  41. Religious Pie Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  42. Top ten denominations in … Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  43. Top ten people in … Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  44. Least evangelized Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  45. P. Distribution(s) F. Data Fits: log-normal Weibull Gauss Preferential attachment Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  46. Zipf mode (WCE) Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  47. Zipf mode (IDB) Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  48. Slope of tail distribution • Scale free“network” IDB WCE Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  49. Z Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

  50. Cults/Sects FR/Wld Globdyn Dresden Oct. 07

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