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Impact evaluations: lessons from AFD’s experience

Impact evaluations: lessons from AFD’s experience. 4-5 October 2011. Phnom Penh SKY evaluation meeting. What are impact evaluations promises?. 1.1. Context: Increased concern for aid effectiveness (2005 Paris Declaration)

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Impact evaluations: lessons from AFD’s experience

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  1. Impact evaluations: lessons from AFD’s experience 4-5 October 2011 Phnom Penh SKY evaluation meeting

  2. What are impact evaluations promises? 1.1 • Context: • Increased concern for aid effectiveness (2005 Paris Declaration) • Relative failure of academic literature on growth (and its relationship with aid) to inform aid delivery (2006 report by the Center for Global Development: “When will we ever learn”) • In response, impact evaluations were promoted to: • Provide robust evidence on the effect of development interventions on their beneficiaries… • … and hence finally learn on “what works and what doesn’t” Thus, impact evaluations aim at contributing to accountability and knowledge,towards effectiveness of (future) development interventions Impact evaluations: lessons from AFD’s experience

  3. The rise of the “evidence movement” 1.2 • Creation of the International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3IE), Development Impact Evaluation Initiative (DIME, World Bank), etc. • Movement reinforced by the widely acclaimed example of the Progresa program in Mexico • Strong increase of the number of IE related to development interventions over the past 10 years • More than 800 completed or on-going studies (White, 2011) • Several methods exist, but RCTs have rapidly been considered as the most robust one Impact evaluations: lessons from AFD’s experience

  4. Impact evaluations at AFD 1.3 • Impact evaluations at AFD: a stepwise experience • Build in-house and AFD’s partners capacities on IE tools • Contribute to overall debate on development aid effectiveness and IE • Define a strategy towards the use of IE in AFD’s operations • Since 2003, AFD has completed or initiated 9 IE studies in various sectors and countries, using different methodologies • Two large scale experimental studies: • “Al Amana”: rural microcredit in Morocco • “SKY”: micro health insurance in Cambodia Impact evaluations: lessons from AFD’s experience

  5. Importance of the SKY evaluation from AFD perspective 1.4 • Change in French government strategy since 2004 (CICID) in the context of MDGs • Health and education sectors: top of the agenda • Several on-going projects of health-insurance: • Cambodia, Laos, Mali, Senegal, Cameroun, Madagascar, Mauritania • Little robust knowledge about effects of health insurance in developing countries • On-going debate about best interventions to (i) remove financial barriers to health protection whilst (ii) insuring sustainability • User fees, conditional-cash transfers, insurance, free services Impact evaluations: lessons from AFD’s experience

  6. Lessons learned: objective of accountability can be reached only under certain conditions 1.5 • Relative simple interventions (best if single-strand initiatives) • Difficulties if too many inputs (may be conflicting effects) • Interventions that have been already piloted in other areas / contexts → mature and stabilized interventions • If new services provided, take-up might be low (“compliance” problem) due to slow learning process • Evaluation conditions not too different from normal implementation conditions • Measured outcomes not too far in the causal chain • If far, statistically hard to detect an impact through the evaluation • Outcomes expected in the short-run • If not, problematic to maintain treatment / control groups (“spillovers” effects) Impact evaluations: lessons from AFD’s experience

  7. What resultsFor which utilization 1.6 Impact evaluations: lessons from AFD’s experience

  8. Lessons learned: objective of knowledge-production achieved 1.7 • Various interesting quantitative results • Examples • Opposable results (robust) • Coupled with qualitative approaches, IE programmes can provide great understanding of the mechanisms at stake • SKY example: economic impacts, health-care behavior, adverse selection effects, supply quality, etc. • Sub-product of these studies: make explicit the theory behind the intervention (“theory of change”), otherwise often hidden • Perspectives at AFD: • Carefully screen projects to be evaluated with IE tools • Innovative projects (test alternative options within interventions) • Promote a mixed-methods approach (qualitative / quantitative) Impact evaluations: lessons from AFD’s experience

  9. Thanksfor your attention http://www.afd.fr/home/recherche/evaluation-capitalisation/Evaluation-impacts

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