Globalization and Conclusion

1. Globalization and Conclusion Lecture 24: Thursday, 6 May 2010J A Morrison

2. Lec 24: Globalization & Conclusion • Globalization • Study International Politics! • Lessons Learned • Learning More • Evaluations

3. Lec 24: Globalization & Conclusion • Globalization • Study International Politics! • Lessons Learned • Learning More • Evaluations

4. I. GLOBALIZATION • What is Globalization? • Globalization in Context • Implications of Globalization • The Fragility of Globalization

5. So, what is this phenomenon “globalization”?

6. The literal meaning of globalization is rendering things global. (OED)A more precise formulation would run: “fundamental changes in the spatial and temporal contours of social existence, according to which the significance of space or territory undergoes shifts in the face of a no less dramatic acceleration in the temporal structure of crucial forms of human activity.” (Stanford Encycl. of Philosophy)

7. Globalization, then, is really about the minimization of the (potential) significance of differences across space and the changes in life that follow as a result.

8. Barriers to Globalization • Natural Barriers • Transportation and Communication Costs • Historical Legacies (e.g. trade networks) • Contrived Barriers • Linguistic and Cultural Barriers • Politically-Imposed Restrictions (tariffs, &c.)  These limits may be increased or decreased  The level of these limits determines the potential level of globalization, the extent of differences across space.

9. If the level of globalization may fluctuate, how has the level of globalization changed over time?

10. I. GLOBALIZATION • What is Globalization? • Globalization in Context • Implications of Globalization • The Fragility of Globalization

11. Globalization encompasses more than just “economic” phenomena…But we typically use “economic” measures to determine the level of globalization.Specifically, we look at the amount of movement of: people, goods & services, and capital.

12. Two Eras of Globalization • Two Eras • 1st Age: Mid-19th Century to 1914 • 2nd Age: 1945 to Present • Similar Causes • Revolutions in transportation & communication • Commitment by states to decrease impediments

13. When was globalization the greatest?  It depends on the measure!

14. When was globalization greatest? • Trade: Share of Exports in World Output • Peaked in 1913 • Surpassed in 1970; much greater today • Migration: Share of population living abroad • Greater before WWI than today • Capital: Flows relative to National Income • Greater before WWI than today Grieco & Ikenberry. State Power & World Markets. pp 5, 217.

15. I. GLOBALIZATION • What is Globalization? • Globalization in Context • Implications of Globalization • The Fragility of Globalization

16. Globalization has implications for social, political, and economic outcomes.

17. The Social Implications • The Division of Labor in Society (1893) • Globalization affects social organization • Mechanical Solidarity: bonds forced by proximity • E.g. members of same tribes • Organic Solidarity: bonds developed by interdependence • E.g. individuals with similar internal characteristics Émile Durkheim

18. Political Implications • Reorganization of the International System • Non-state actors (MNCs, NGOs, &c) become major players in IP • Changes in distribution of power • Changes in Accountability • States respond to different groups than do MNCs or NGOs

19. Economic Implications • Development: Does globalization make the pie bigger? • Distribution: Who enjoys the gains brought by globalization? • Developed countries? • Developing countries? • MNCs? • Consumers?

20. I. GLOBALIZATION • What is Globalization? • Globalization in Context • Implications of Globalization • The Fragility of Globalization

21. In The Economic Consequences of the Peace (1919), Keynes reflected on the fragility of the prewar era of globalization…

22. “What an extraordinary episode in the economic progress of man that age was which came to an end in August, 1914!”

23. “The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth…and reasonably expect their early delivery upon his doorstep; he could…adventure his wealth in the natural resources and new enterprises of any quarter of the world…or he could decide to couple the security of his fortunes with the good faith of the townspeople of any substantial municipality in any continent that fancy or information might recommend. He could secure..cheap and comfortable means of transit to any country or climate without passport or other formality…and could then proceed abroad to foreign quarters, without knowledge of their religion, language, or customs, bearing coined wealth upon his person, and would consider himself greatly aggrieved and much surprised at the least interference.”-- Keynes, Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1919.

24. “But, most important of all, he regarded this state of affairs as normal, certain, and permanent, except in the direction of further improvement, and any deviation from it as aberrant, scandalous, and avoidable. The projects and politics of militarism and imperialism, of racial and cultural rivalries, of monopolies, restrictions, and exclusion, which were to play the serpent to this paradise, were little more than the amusements of his daily newspaper, and appeared to exercise almost no influence at all on the ordinary course of social and economic life, the internationalization of which was nearly complete in practice.”-- Keynes, Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1919.

25. The interwar collapse deepened Keynes’ sense of the precariousness of international order.In 1938—with war in Europe looming once again—he reflected further on his prewar assumptions…

26. “In short, we repudiated all versions of the doctrine of original sin, of there being insane and irrational springs of wickedness in most men. We were not aware that civilisation was a thin and precarious crust erected by the personality and the will of a very few, and only maintained by rules and conventions skilfully put across and guilefully preserved.”-- Keynes, “My Early Beliefs,” 1938.

27. We tend to believe that our time is special… that our challenges are new…. and that our solutions are final.

28. But history teaches a different lesson…

29. Integration is not inevitable. Progress is not permanent. Civilization can collapse.

30. Lec 24: Globalization & Conclusion • Globalization • Study International Politics! • Lessons Learned • Learning More • Evaluations

31. We began the course with a polemic: why bother studying IP?

32. You’ll remember, of course, that I used the case of JM Keynes to suggest that the stakes of international politics are extremely high.

33. International politics can…

34. Can abet slavery…inflict inconceivable suffering…and annihilate our species.

35. Or, international politics can…

36. Advance the cause of liberty…lift continents out of poverty…and ensure the persistence of our species.

37. I think that studying international politics will make a difference……regardless of whether you become a policymaker or just an informed citizen.

38. But how ought we to study international politics?

39. Lec 24: Globalization & Conclusion • Globalization • Study International Politics! • Lessons Learned • Learning More • Evaluations

40. Keynes offered some guidance here as well.Consider his chastisement of Woodrow Wilson…

41. Woodrow Wilson had the moral authority, the best intentions, and a larger share of the political and economic power than any previous world leader.In modern terms, Wilson had both “hard” and “soft” power.

42. But he had the wrong ideas…

43. He had almost no empirical knowledge of the Europeans’ particular situations, their identities, or their histories.

44. And he relied on a simplistic, narrow theoretical base that perilously filtered his perspective and undermined his objectives.

45. This gives rise to three lessons Keynes would hope to impart on every student of international politics…

46. (1) The student of international politics needs both empirics and theory.

47. One must know the empirics—the facts on the ground.And one must also rely on theory to explain and interpret those facts.

48. But it is not enough to simply be “up to date.”International politics can be—and has been organized—in a variety of ways.

49. (2) The student of international politics must pursue a rich appreciation of the facts and the theories afforded by history.

50. “A study of the history of opinion is a necessary preliminary to the emancipation of the mind. I do not know which makes a man more conservative—to know nothing but the present, or nothing but the past.” (Keynes 1924)