1 / 26

Kevin M. Wilson, PhD Chairman/CEO

Bi-Monthly Market Review “Consensus and Contrarian Bets” (Knowing When To Bet With Or Against The Herd) May 15 th , 2014. Kevin M. Wilson, PhD Chairman/CEO. Ted A. Pavlovich, WMS President/Wealth Mgmt. Advisor. Office: 218-464-4399 Toll Free: 877-327-5062 Fax: 218-464-4397

adriel
Télécharger la présentation

Kevin M. Wilson, PhD Chairman/CEO

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Bi-Monthly Market Review • “Consensus and Contrarian Bets” • (Knowing When To Bet With Or Against The Herd) May15th, 2014 Kevin M. Wilson, PhD Chairman/CEO Ted A. Pavlovich, WMS President/Wealth Mgmt. Advisor Office: 218-464-4399 Toll Free: 877-327-5062 Fax: 218-464-4397 Email: info@bluewater-cap.com www.bluewatercapitaladvisors.com 1405 Medical Arts Building 324 W. Superior Street Duluth, MN 55802 1

  2. Introductionted a. Pavlovich 2

  3. Pivotal Investor Choices this yearKevin M. Wilson 3

  4. Pivotal Choices (Consensus vs. Contrarian): 1) Inflation/Interest Rates (Contrarian) 2) Global Growth Cycle (Consensus) 3) Market Valuations/Risk (Contrarian) 4) Investment Themes (Both) What Happens Next?

  5. Inflation Low To Falling, Except for Japan

  6. Fed Policy Changing With Taper; Inflation Outlook Uncertain; But Debt Has Not Fallen, Only Transferred

  7. Consensus: Global Growth Is Stable & Modestly Increasing

  8. 2013’s Huge Return Driven By Higher Prices, Not Growth

  9. Price/GDP Very High; Expected Returns Can Go Higher Only If There’s A Correction

  10. Contrarian Bet: Low Yields For Long Treasuries

  11. Four Consensus Themes: El Nino, Energy, Food, Climate

  12. Value Stocks Outperform Rotation to value plays will persistkevin m. wilson 12

  13. Most Stocks Are Priced Expensively Value Measures: P/B P/E EV/EBITDA P/S P/CF

  14. Contrarian Bet: Value Investing Will Tend To Outperform Given High Avg. Prices If You Start With Cheap Prices, You Make More Value P/E’s Can Go Up Dividends Can Help

  15. The High Flyers Fell First, But The Avg. Stock Is Already In A Correction, Further Favoring Value Stocks 5/09/2014

  16. Some Examples of Potential Contrarian Value Plays

  17. Warm Water in Equatorial Pacific Changes Precipitation Pattern El Nino Plays Will ReturnKevin M. Wilson 17

  18. El Nino Switches Off Upwelling In Western South America Peruvian Fisheries Severely Impacted

  19. El Nino’s Changes In Precipitation Patterns Affect Food Production, Coal Mining, Copper Mining

  20. But El Nino May Finally End The Drought In The Western USA

  21. Election cycle will provide a q4/2014 liftTed a. pavlovich 21

  22. The Four-Year USA Election Cycle Can Strongly Affect Markets

  23. Consensus: We Are Tracking The Avg. Midterm Election Year Pattern, But With More Volatility Than Normally Experienced ?

  24. (Both Consensus and Contrarian Plays Will Work This Year) 1. Inflation/Interest Rates Will Strongly Influence Returns 2. Value Plays Will Outperform This Year 3. Energy, Food, and Climate Plays Provide Opportunities 4. The USA Election Cycle Will Drive Returns After The Correction 5. We Are Excited About The Chance To Make Money Later This Year Summary KEVIN M. WILSON 24

  25. q & a KEVIN M. WILSON TED A. PAVLOVICH 25

  26. Disclaimer This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any security or commodity and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time without notice. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, for its accuracy and interpretation are not guaranteed. Investing in securities involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance should not be taken as an indication of guarantee of future performance and no representation, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. The firm does not provide tax advice; clients should contact their attorney, accountant, or other tax adviser regarding tax matters. “BWCA is a state registered investment adviser in all states in which it is required to be registered. All Blue Water Capital Advisors’ customer assets are held in the customer name with Fidelity Institutional Services, clearing through National Financial Services (NFS), Member SIPC, a Fidelity Investments Company as Qualified Custodian.” 26

More Related