Factors Influencing

1. Factors Influencing

2. Presidential Decision Making

3. 1. Time Available • How much (quantity) time does the president have? • If severe time constraints are involved, the situation is defined as a crisis. • Possible last minute commutation of a death sentence

4. Nuclear War: 30 minutes away

5. Nuclear War in Europe Scenario

6. Commuting a death sentence

7. 30 month sentence commuted by Pres. Bush after “Scooter” Libby named a CIA operative

8. Foreign Embassy Attack

9. Should he have left?

10. 2. Amount of Prior Study and Preparation • Readiness

11. The decision to try to send men to the moon would involve this factor. Was the US ready when Kennedy challenged the country to win the space race?

12. How much is really known about the Iranian Nuclear program? How far along? Who is it a threat to? (defensive war, preemptive war, or proactive war)

13. M1A Abrams Tank destroyed in Iraq.

14. Roadside bomb crater Iraq Humvee destroyed in Iraq by roadside bomb.

15. "As you know, you go to war with the Army you have. They're not the Army you might want or wish to have at a later time." Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld

16. How much did Kennedy really know about how far the missiles in Cuban were from being ready for launch?

17. 3. Importance of the Issue • How important is the issue really?

18. Flag Burning: Is it the deciding factor on who to vote for?

22. Illegal Immigration: Who wants them and why and who does not want them and why?

23. Potential nuclear war over Cuba or Iran v. the decision to see Alvin and the Chipmunks

24. 4. Personal Beliefs • The president’s political ideology as well as any other convictions that influence decision making. • JFK (Liberal, Catholic) • Bush ’43 (Conservative, Protestant) • Carter (Conservative Democrat, Baptist, supported prayer in school)

26. 5. Prior Experience • This factor is one of the most important. • Consider President Bush ’41 making decisions regarding foreign intelligence. • JFK had backed down to the USSR at the Bay of Pigs, the Vienna Conference, and over the Berlin Wall

27. Two terms Representative from Texas. • Ambassador to the United Nations • Chief of the U. S. Liaison Office in the People's Republic of China • Director of the Central Intelligence Agency. • Chairman of the Republican National Committee

29. 6. Style of Decision Making • How does the president make decisions?

30. Truman: A loner

31. Carter: Small Inner Circle

32. Clinton: Larger Group

33. 7. Formal Rules • Written rules: • the US Constitution • Commander-in-chief • Federal laws • Civil Rights Act of 1965 • Treaties • NATO, SEATO • Declarations • Monroe Doctrine • Axis-of-Evil

34. Commander-in-Chief

35. Civil Rights Act of 1965

39. 8. Informal Rules • Tradition • Red Mass: Sunday before SCOTUS term • Protocol • Seating at a state dinner • Press protocol in the White House • Other unwritten rules that govern behavior of the president (i.e. “chain of command”)

40. Red Mass

41. State Dinner

42. Press Conference

43. 9. Available Resources • Tangible things that the president has at his disposal.

44. Truman only had two of the Atomic Bombs. So what do you target?

45. U2 Spy plane to gather data and how many ships will it take to blockade Cuba?

46. Available Military Resources • As of 2003, the United States occupied over 700 installations in over 36 countries worldwide. Some of the largest contingents are: • Germany 75,603 • Japan (USForces Japan) 40,045 • South Korea (US Forces Korea) 29,086 Italy 10,449 • United Kingdom 10,331

47. 10. Status Relationships • People who have face-to-face or easy contact with the president and influence decisions

48. Nixon and Kissinger

49. Bush and Blair

50. Clinton and Blair